"The greatest wealth is created by being an early investor... Making that investment requires believing in something before the majority of people understand it.
You will be mocked, ridiculed and criticized for your non-consensus action. It is absolutely worth it!" - Cathie Wood, ARK Invest
I have been following the GME and Silver Squeeze phenomena and I wanted to share my DD and speculation with you. I believe that everything has been leading up to this, and I have used what I learned from Bitcoin, Tesla, and GME to make this DD. I present to you:
The Silver Squeeze - The Triple Squeeze - The Silver Crusade
Disclaimer: This is in NO way financial advice, nor am I suggesting or condoning for ANYONE to do this. This is what I am going to do, and simply MY SPECULATION.
TLDR:
God Tier: Physical silver Top Tier: COMEX futures, $SLV OTM calls and shares Great Tier: $PSLV and $USLV shares, $GME (I am with you!) Good Tier (miners): $EXK $AG $SVM $FSM $MUX and many others GME was the millenial uprising. The #Silversqueeze is the boomer rebellion! Before you begin, I encourage you to read about John Law, the Banque Generale, and the Mississippi Bubble: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Law_(economist). History repeats itself... Jerome Powell, COMEX?
UPDATE ON THE SITUATION: Current Phase: 1 - Cutting off the Supply / Driving up Demand
SLV changes prospectus as of Feb.13, effectively becoming a closed ended fund. Price skyrocketing is inevitable. At this moment it seems like the reddit community has really antagonized the SLV argument, yet the calls sweeps indicate that there are big players that are betting on SLV. Personally, I am diversifying, to hit all venues. All power to you if you are getting silver while avoiding SLV, it all helps in the end. When nobody believes in something though, that is where the greatest reward is, IMO. I have been contemplating the price action in the past few days and I see 2 possibilities at the moment:
Institutions were not in position for the silver bull run, but now they are and we will fly. JPM themselves are long silver, and they may actually be the very ones behind this social media trend.
Institutions will hammer down the price again via futures and double down for a war of attrition.
We will see at 26.70 what they have in mind, that is they key price for either a hard rejection with stopping volume down to the 24s or back up to 30s. I am leaning toward option 1. They are not stupid. They are not Melvin Capital. They saw what happened and they would much rather make money. They hold the most silver after all. Social media is so very easy to control. We saw it with GME, we saw it with Bitcoin, we saw it with Tesla, we saw it with Trump, we saw it with the global riots. What's a few million from JPM or Sprott to push a movement on Reddit?
Their current defense is trimming the shadow contracts to settle in March and adding to May, check the open interest yourself. They want to kick the can down the road. This could become a war of attrition.
They cannot make new contracts for March because they are coming up for delivery. They are already overleveraged. It is already over, as long as we hold.
- They will allow exuberant investors to pile in on market open to ride the wave, even bidding it up in the morning to lure in buyers, and as buy volume fades, they will hammer it down with naked shorts via COMEX futures each and every day, coupled with negative PR and bots spamming platforms - They will bleed it into the night using algorithms to short ladder and wash trade the price down on low volume (Trading with themselves beneath the lowest bid price), so that investors in Asia and Europe believe it is a pump and dump. - They will pounce on any weakness as they grow more desperate. Sudden rallies may be countered with "dream-crusher" shorts and blow-off tops, and any bounces will be blocked off with massive sell-order walls. This is manipulation 101. Watch for sudden volume in spam, shilling, FUD on ST, Telegram, or whatever platform you may use. - After consecutive days of punishment, many retail traders will lose interest, be shaken out, or wiped out from being overleveraged. Tight stop losses will be hunted. - What they can do to counter us is to flood the market with silver to nip this movement in the bud and cover their overleveraged positions. However, in their greed - they will never ever choose this option and will attempt to manipulate through futures price action, naked shorting, and outdated media attacks. - Another possibility is that a major actor with a large stake may reverse their short position and may in-fact become our biggest ally. They would stand gain while the others are liquidated. - Another option is to divide and conquer - misdirect attention and cause FOMO elsewhere - while silver is pinned and bleeding, the next big thing might be pumped. The market is in a maniacal frenzy right now, this seems likely - Uranium, space travel or crypto are candidates.
Silvergang's moves:
- If there is no volume while the price bleeds, it is a short-ladder. No one is selling except their algorithms to themselves. Don't fall for this. - Short attacks are are opportunities to buy aggressively to counter their move. This will make them bleed and think twice about using the same strategies. - Be skeptical of the MSM - the sentiment seems to be positive as of now, but after building trust, they will flip the script once their masters instruct it. They will say it is over when it is not. - The price action of the ETF does not matter at this point. Watch the spot price of physical! - Physical suppliers have already stopped selling, in anticipation of the coming winter. This is a sign of success. Follow the MONEY, the POLICIES, and the PHYSICAL. Be prepared to HOLD and weather the onslaught of FUD and price manipulation. - Remember that before we had computers, algorithmic trading, and quant shops, it was just Supply and Demand! For the majority of traders, intraday price action exists only to hurt you. - It is very simple. Just do what they dont want you to do!
They are the End-Boss. They will not go down without a fight. Don't expect it to be easy.
Litany Against Fear:
"I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain." - While pooling our money is illegal and market manipulation, and this post is not financial advice, this could be a possibility: https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1354206025297973250?lang=en 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
The system is already broken. It is ALREADY OVER. The FRAUDEX is held up only to keep draining you as long as they can before they EXIT SCAM.
- COMEX inventory data: https://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/nymex-delivery-notices.html - If you open Silver Stocks, you can see that there’s 2 categories: Eligible and Registered. - The last report says there’s 248,082,103.16 ounces in there. At $30 an ounce, that’s $7,442,463,094 to buy out all silver on the COMEX - so they claim.
49,617 x 2 = 99,234 contracts. Total open interest on Mar 21 alone nevermind the rest = 133,715
Total naked shorts right now = 34,481 naked shorts, or x 5000oz = 172,405,000 ounces of silver they can’t deliver but might have to. And this is PHYSICAL silver! They can’t print it, they’ll have to find it on the open market, or.. close the shorts
Naturally the same thing applies as GME: If they want to close shorts, they need to buy them back first.
If 50,000 contracts stand for delivery…. Well that means EVERYTHING ELSE IS A SHORT DOESN’T IT?! 100% OF THE FLOAT! Not to mention on a delivery failure the price of PHYSICAL silver will just 10x while the futures go to 0. We might not even be able to determine the price of silver anymore on any sort of global scale!
This is the Infinite Squeeze
- I love this play because it is also a hedge against a market crash and declining dollar
This is a gap trade - a wealth gap trade - and we are filling the gap.
- Silver has been manipulated for nearly 100 years - true value of silver with adjusted for inflation is $1000 - Gold and silver are the only commodities in which the paper value reflects the price of the underlying commodity- They have been accumulating for 100 years - The Hunt brothers had already performed this same play in the past, but the banks did not learn their lesson. They were only 2, but how many millions of regular people hold physical silver? - The Hunt brothers eventually lost, when the Federal government stepped in and Federal commodities regulators introduced special rules to prevent any more long position contracts from being written or sold for silver futures. This is similar to what we are seeing with Robinhood and GME.
This is why it is imperative to buy the far OTM calls now.
- The Hunt brothers were over-leveraged, which was their downfall. Don't make this mistake. They were also 2, while we are millions. - Through fake sell orders (shadow contracts), the banks have $2 billion in naked shorts on the physical market, and $70 billion on the paper market - All fronts must be hit, physical, futures, ETFs, options - For a $1 rise in silver, $200 million worth of short positions are liquidated - After $50, the gamma squeeze begins, the gamma ramp should be built above 50 - At $480, JP Morgan and the Big 8's full position of naked shorts are liquidated - After seeing GME, it is clear that they will lie, spread FUD, use level-headed fake allies to try to dissuade us, distract us, say that it is over when it is not, break the law and laugh about it on national television - After 100 years of manipulation, over 90% of gold, and a significant amount of silver has been accumulated by the institutions. While they print worthless paper money, true wealth has been robbed from us. Who will help us against this manipulation?
Why SLV?
- As an investor why would you want SLV to get diluted? Why would you buy SLV when JPM is custodian is this ETF is most at risk of fraud? How do you make money on calls? Let's say you squeeze to infinity. SLV doesnt move because 1 billion shares were issued as a result?
The ultimate goal is to pressure them until they are unable to issue any more shares because we know they do not have the underlying silver in the vault.
They must issue more shares as demand for the ETF rises, to keep the price fixed to the spot price of physical silver. When they issue more shares, they must also buy the proportional amount of physical silver to store in their vaults, but if demand for physical silver rises and avenues for obtaining physical close, the ETF and its subcustodians become the only way to get physical silver. Industry will demand silver from their vaults through the ETF.
Silver that we know they do not have. This is their Achilles Heel. This is what they truly fear. This is why there is so much FUD surrounding SLV.
It is not silver that is being squeezed to infinity. Silver is only returning to its true value of 1000-7000. That is only phase 1. My speculation is that the in the later phases of this movement, the ETF will be squeezed to infinity, because it will be the only way big tech and EV companies can obtain silver - or it will be closed and cash settled for shareholders.
In other words, the endgame is to reveal the fraud and destroy it. This is the case for buying SLV. Their fraud is an unsustainable bubble and while it is effective at controlling the market, if it grows too large, it will burst.
What can be done to help expose the fraud:
https://www.cftc.gov/Contact/index.htm Scroll to the bottom to "Submit Tips & Complaints" and detail the illegal naked shorting of the COMEX futures, manipulation and spoofing if evidence arises. If you are paranoid, or just want to return the price of silver to its true value, or ride the wave for some profits, by all means go for PSLV or miners instead. It all helps in the end. If you really want to lay the hurt on JPM, a supply squeeze, followed by a gamma squeeze on SLV would do it.
SHOULD a $480 price be achieved. There will be severe consequences to the market, and probably the economy. Plan accordingly.
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Part 1 - Reducing Supply, Increasing Demand / Cornering the Market (See Bitcoin):
- Buying Physical Silver to reduce supply - COMEX futures settling for delivery - I will buy underlying shares of SLV, PSLV and physical silver - Physical silver - dealers are already sold out, but this means nothing. They can claim to be "sold out" and have a stockpile in anticipation of the squeeze. They are simply not selling it to you. - SLV shares - according to SLV prospectus, when SLV issues shares, they are forced to true up their vaults with the proportional amount daily - however, there are concerns about their integrity, be prepared for legal/media actions - SLV is ran by JP Morgan themselves, and there is a concern that there is no proven metal, and only a few big banks have access, and can pay cash only in case of a default. Spoofing is inevitable and widely known. This is a legitimate concern. HOWEVER, the whole point of this squeeze is to force them to PHYSICALLY DELIVER ON A SILVER RALLY ON UNDERLYING ASSETS THAT THEY DO NOT POSSESS! THIS IS THE REAL SQUEEZE! - Silver futures - this is where some whales could really turn the tide - the COMEX vaults only contains 1 ounce of silver for 100-500 ounces traded via futures - the principle purpose of the future contracts is to actually deliver the underlying commodity, but because of traders settling with cash, the futures market has become 500x leveraged - Once physical silver becomes scarce, and more future contracts are settled for physical delivery, the demand will overwhelm the supply. SILVER FUTURES ARE 500x LEVERAGED! - They cannot lie if big companies need physical silver and they do not possess it in the vault - Many are advocating that it is impossible to squeeze a commodity - however, see the 2010-2011 short squeeze of silver (JP Morgan was short at the time as well): 481% gain - It seems that JPM is covering their short positions already. Yes, JPM is custodian of SLV, but it means little, as SLV is managed by Blackrock. This is not a huge concern. - The goal remains to short squeeze, if it becomes more profitable for JPM to indeed reverse their position, they could become our greatest ally against the Big 8. - Miners - this doesn't actually do anything, but this is a way you can take profits without touching the SLV shares until the victory has been achieved. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Part 2 - Gamma Squeeze (See TSLA):
- First of all - what is a gamma squeeze? https://www.reddit.com/options/comments/hxe3i0/can_someone_explain_a_gamma_squeeze_to_me_please/ - SLV OTM calls - buying far OTM strike calls forces the Market Maker's algorithms to "gamma hedge", buying the underlying asset to hedge risk for the OTM calls. A steady ramp is better than a large wall of interest at a specific strike - I will be buying April SLV calls 50c - if it begins to move, I will add higher OTM strike calls to build a gamma ramp - holding to expiry and exercising will force shorted shares to be bought back to sell to the calls should a squeeze occur (See GME) - At this point, the MSM will go all out with attacks using Obfuscation, Misinformation, Propaganda, in order to spread Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l928lobfuscation_misinformation_propaganda_and_gme/ - While GME is seen as "oh look at those lovable idiots, I'm rooting for the underdog!" History may not be kind to the Silvergang if they do manage to crash the economy. This a different ball game. Understand what you are getting into. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Part 3 - Short Squeeze (See GME):
- SLV, PSLV shares, HOLD while they struggle to meet industrial demand - When there is no more silver available on the market, the only way to get silver will be through futures and ETFs - 50%+ short interest on COMEX futures will be squeezed - With rapidly rising spot price of silver, institutions and enterprise companies that need it may rush to hoard it, causing a steep increase in value along with the short squeeze - If GME liquidating a hedge fund could threaten to take down the market, what could liquidating a bank or two do? https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l7bpf5/30_seconds_from_triggering_market_nuclear_bomb/ - They WILL change the rules if they start losing. All you can do is hold and weather the storm. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Part 4 - Destroying the Fraud, Infinite Squeeze (ENDGAME):
"Do you see it now? Or should we finish this on the board?"
- Settle SLV shares for delivery once spot prices rises to critical levels, decouple the ETF price from spot price - Physical and COMEX futures, especially settling for delivery of futures is damaging - However, the ENDGAME is to perform a gamma squeeze + short squeeze like what we are witnessing with GME on SLV, ONCE the silver market is cornered - PSLV is a closed-end fund and while Sprott will deliver, they do NOT need to buy more silver to replenish their vault - SLV must. While they are most at risk for fraud, the price MUST follow the spot price, and as demand rises, they MUST issue more shares to keep up with demand - The mechanism in which they issue shares is such that they MUST BUY more underlying shares proportional to the ETF - While they are expected to be fraudulent, we already know that there IS NOT ENOUGH SILVER IN THE VAULT - You can settle for delivery with SLV if you hold 50k shares - When the prices of silver rises from the COMEX and physical short squeeze, the FAANG and EV companies that need it will be forced to settle for delivery either at SLV, or at their subcustodians, causing a ripple effect - Eventually, if enough shareholders settle for delivery, they CANNOT DELIVER because they DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH SILVER IN THE VAULT - Then the ETF price must decouple from the spot price. This is when the gamma squeeze can occur. Rapidly raising the price of the ETF - As long as shareholders do not sell, and hold, like we are witnessing with GME, this can squeeze INFINITELY. THIS IS THE ENDGAME. THIS IS THE SQUEEZE. - They are a major bank, directly linked to the FEDERAL RESERVE, they MUST DELIVER - Silver bulls have been waiting for decades for this moment - The system traps us in an endless rat race with circumstances that already doom us. Debt based fractional reserve fiat currency enslavement system. They exist to profit off of us, not help us. Creating booms and busts w/ interest rates destroying families livelihoods - At this point, the Fed will get involved. It will get political. https://www.reddit.com/Wallstreetsilvecomments/l98bws/the_eye_of_sauron_shall_fall_upon_silve 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
The Final Phase - Liquidation of the ETF - Blood Moon for the Big 8 - Taking Down the Beast (The End of COMEX):
- Bad End: Closure of SLV - SEC steps in - shareholders would be forced to sell at a time not of their choosing. Game Over. - Another Bad End: JPM dumps everything below spot price. Weakhands sell everything for a loss. Banks win. Unlikely - Silver bugs have been holding for decades. There are many that will never ever sell. - Should March Silver fail - April Gold is a good target: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/gold_quotes_volume_voi.html?foi=O#tradeDate=20210201 - Neutral End (brought up by this post on WSB: https://new.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/lc8vgo/slv_is_not_going_to_get_squeezedslv_is_the_trojan/): JPM wins but SLV holders also win - The COMEX closes forever, and SLV ETFs become the de facto paper for silver - JPM's heist is complete. However, silver and SLV holders still benefit greatly. This would be the greatest exit scam in history... 100 years in the making. Trading COMEX for JPM. - Good End: Closure of SLV - settled for cash. The strangehold is broken and silver returns to true value. JPM's heist via shadow contracts as custodian is investigated when they fail to deliver on physical to big tech. This is a possible outcome with good chances. Justice. - Complete Victory: shareholders hold and squeeze the ETF shares and control the price as they please, physical, miners, and PSLV shares have skyrocketed. The world is changed forever. Silvergang now controls the ETFs and big tech must buy Silvergang's ETF shares at an incredible premium for the precious metal. Elon Musk must pay tendies as tribute to Silvergang for silver for his SpaceX rockets. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Looking Beyond - Hyperinflation:
Here are 3 freebies for you Silver Surfers and Silverback Gorillas:
Understand this - IF this works. YOU will be the ONLY ONES not holding the bags. YOU will be the bank. YOU will make the rules.
- Jeff Bezos sold $7.2 billion worth of his shares in 2020. All the Eligible Silver in COMEX’s vaults is worth 238,447,113.735 Oz x $24.065 = $5,738,229,792.03. Assuming the COMEX actually has the title to it all. Jeff Bezos is not a nice person, but he is very smart person
Feb. 2 Jeff Bezos steps down as CEO from Amazon
- MORTGAGE, let inflation pay off the mortgage - Companies with a firm asset base with no debt 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕🌕 #SILVERSQUEEZE #SILVERGANG #SILVERSURFERS #SILVERBACKS \@darkpooltrade I like the commodity. Alot. Good Luck To All!
“We choose to go to the moon, not because it is easy, but because it is hard." - JFK
(FYI: The manipulation of PLTR angered me to the point that I sought to make the manipulators pay, and this eventually lead me to silver)
I am 28. I live in Chicago. My salary is $60,000 as a Nonprofit Consultant. Come see how I spend my coin!
I actually cut out a lot yet this is still on the long side, so be warned. Sorry in advance. SECTION ONE: ASSETS AND DEBT Retirement Balance: ~$4,740. $4,450 in a Roth IRA I opened when I turned 26. I just recently started contributing more to it regularly. I was previously focused on building my emergency savings up. My last job didn’t offer retirement until the very end of my time there, and there was no employer match. I contributed the bare minimum to my 401k; it has about $300 in it. With my current job, retirement match is factored into the salary. Equity: $0. Not a home owner. Savings account balance: $15,765. $1,150 in a Chase savings account, $13,519 in a HYSA, $1,046 in my Qapital account. Technically I use Qapital to save for taxes, but I know I won’t owe anywhere close to $1,000 since my 2020 freelancing was infrequent. I doubt it’ll even be up to $250. Checking account balance: $2,227 (payday was today!) Credit card debt: $0. I use my credit card like a debit card so I can rack up cash back. I pay it off every day. Student loan debt: $21,417. I graduated in 2015 with a BA in French and English. Original debt was ~$33,000. Before the pandemic my interest was 4.5%. Interest is now 0%. -- SECTION TWO:INCOME PROGRESSION2015-2016 - $15/hr as a remote intern for a major website. This was my first paid position out of college. I learned a lot about web content and writing for online audiences. This was part-time at 25 hours a week. 2016 - $2,700/month as a Content Writer. I created scripts and training materials for various companies to train their employees. Started this job in March and was unexpectedly laid off in December. Sucked at the time but turns out it was a blessing in disguise...The work was soulless and I didn’t like it. 2017 - ~$850/month stipend as an Americorps VISTA. At the start of the year I got a Development position at a nonprofit I volunteered at, hoping to gain grant writing experience. I absolutely would NOT have done this had I not been living at home. I also collected an additional $400 a month in unemployment until July since I was technically a federal volunteer, not an employee, therefore still eligible for benefits. 2017 - $37,000/year as a Development Coordinator, primarily writing grants. The person in this position left and I was asked to step in. I didn’t get my ed stipend since I ended my VISTA year 5 months early. 2018 - $38,250/year - COL raise. 2019 - $43,000/year then $45,000. I was promoted to manager. 2020 - $47,000/year - COL raise. 2020 - $60,000/year. I had been job hunting hard when COVID hit and I subsequently became discouraged. I was desperate to leave my job...the people I worked with were wonderful but I felt like my growth was stifled, the amount of staff turnover was draining, and our pay was below market rate. I ended up finding my new job through my network. I was very excited to not work in fundraising anymore. The events of 2020 confirmed that I didn’t want to make a career out of coaxing rich white folks to relinquish a tiny amount of their wealth to support youth of color. My now-boss and I talked extensively over Zoom before I received my offer letter in July. It’s been a great learning opportunity, even though starting a new job remotely is strange and sometimes lonely. Having a cat helps :) Main Job Monthly Take Home**:** $3,846. This is after $50 is deducted for Vision, Dental, Medical. Side Gig Monthly Take Home: $100-$400. I write product guides for a website sometimes. These days I only take on work if I’m anticipating new expenses that month. This income is in addition to my 60k salary, since what I make from my side hustle varies. Last year I made $2,200, the year before it was over $5,000. Other: ~$250/year in cash back from my credit card -- SECTION THREE: EXPENSES Rent: $1,025 in a decently-sized studio that I share with my cat. Rent encompasses all utilities, including internet. This is dropping down to $975 starting April 1 - yay! Renters Insurance: $5 Savings (monthly unless it says otherwise): ~$300 goes into a High Yield Savings Account. I automate $50 a week then throw in an extra $100 - $200, depending on the month. I save $80 - $120 with the Qapital app. I got it before they started charging so my account is free. Retirement contribution: $315- $415 into a Roth IRA. Maybe I should up payments so I can max it out, really torn between that or boosting student loan payments. I throw an extra hundred dollars in there some months. Debt payments: All I have is federal student loan debt. Since starting my job in July I’ve been paying $500/month, throwing in extra when I have it. I’m going to increase this to $600/month starting in February. Would love to have it paid off by the time I’m 30, or during my 30th year. I’m not holding my breath for student loan forgiveness, but if it starts to seem like a real possibility then I’ll cut back on payments. Donations: $300 to my mom and dad. I come from a working-class background and make more than both parents combined. My dad was unemployed for a while, and as I write this has become unemployed again. I worry a lot about my folks financially. In our culture it’s expected that we take care of our parents as they age, so there’s that component too. Also $25 to a local nonprofit. $9 to a local theater company for which I’m a board member. Our board is very low-key and not a fundraising one. Then usually ~$500 more throughout the year for various causes. Electric: Included in rent. Wifi/Cable/Landline: Included in rent. Cellphone: $43 Subscriptions: ~$63. $18 for Patreon, $10.89 for Spotify Premium, $16.34 for HBOMax, $7.62 for Disney+, $9.71 for Netflix. Pet expenses: I spend roughly $80 on food + probiotics and $20 on litter, which I buy in bulk. The monthly amount really fluctuates though. I’ve spent about $1,500 on my cat since I adopted her in October. Including getting basic stuff like a litter box, a cat tree, toys, food/water bowls, a carrier, etc. along with the adoption fee. I took her to the vet earlier last month and that was $450. She was vomiting frequently :( Car payment / insurance: $0. Car free, baby. Therapy: $100 Paid hobbies: $120 annually for my personal website. -- FINANCIAL BACKGROUND Was there an expectation for you to attend higher education? Did you participate in any form of higher education? If yes, how did you pay for it? Yes. I’m a child of immigrants and we place a high premium on education. Skipping college was never an option. Luckily, I’ve always done well in school and would have gone to college regardless. I think about grad school sometimes but there has to be a good ROI. Maybe one day. I borrowed 33k in student loans for undergrad, which isn’t that bad considering that I went to a private school that cost $200,000 over 4 years. I paid for the rest with work study, along with merit-based and need-based scholarships. Growing up, what kind of conversations did you have about money? Did your parent/guardian(s) educate you about finances? We didn’t discuss finances too often. I did get an allowance when I was younger and paid for the things I wanted (mostly books and CDs from my local Borders) by saving that money. My parents always had the mindset that credit cards can work as emergency funds...as an adult I strongly oppose that way of thinking. My parents accrued a lot of credit card debt and I never wanted that to be me. Which is why I only use my CC now as a debit card. I never put anything on there that I can’t pay off in full. What was your first job and why did you get it? I was in this program where teens get paid to participate in arts programs. I did theater for three years in HS, I think the stipend was ~$400 every two months. My first real job with wages was working retail the summer before college. I was making $8.25/hr. Both jobs were for spending money. Did you worry about money growing up? I didn’t worry necessarily, but I was aware that there were people with more than us. My mom was out of work for a few years due to some chronic pain and we had a Link card then. I had free/reduced lunch growing up and got fee waivers for all of my college apps. I was also aware of my privilege as an American citizen. My parents regularly sent money home to poorer family members. I learned early that it’s better to be working class here than it is over there. Do you worry about money now? Yes. I know I’m luckier than many. But I also have no generational wealth to inherit. Sometimes I feel really behind when I see people my age or younger with six figures in their retirement, $50,000 in stocks, or money passed down from family. I worry most about taking care of my parents in old age. I have an older brother so it’s a relief that we can at least share costs, when the time comes. At what age did you become financially responsible for yourself and do you have a financial safety net? I became 100% financially responsible when I moved out at age 25. Before then I was contributing $400/month towards rent. If I fell on really hard times I could probably move in with my folks, but otherwise I'm my own safety net. Do you or have you ever received passive or inherited income? If yes, please explain. My mom cashed out an $800 savings bond for spending money when I studied abroad in college, but otherwise nope. Day 1 - Wednesday morning Another dreary January day. It’s been consistently snowing for the past two days and very overcast to boot. I spend some time lazing in bed until my Mom unexpectedly calls to ask me if I can print out her worker’s comp form to see if she'll qualify for any. She contracted COVID from her job a few weeks ago and, thankfully, is recovering. I tell her I don’t have a printer and hang up, slightly annoyed, after telling her I’ll print it from the library later. This was the 4th day in a row of her calling me and conversations with her can be hard to cut short (I’m not an asshole, honest). I get up and feed my cat, E., her breakfast with a probiotic, take my gummy vitamins, and get ready for the day (brush teeth, moisturize face and hair, put on black skinny jeans and a navy and white speckled sweater with hoop earrings). I throw some sliced bananas, kale, frozen blueberries, honey, almond milk, and ginger into the blender for a smoothie. Once that’s poured into a glass I take a seat at my corner desk to begin my work day. Afternoon My foul mood lingers but I work through it. There’s a big deadline coming up soon so my days have been pretty full. E. climbs into my lap while I work and I give her some head rubs. I adopted her 4 months ago. There was a learning curve for me, as someone who grew up with 0 pets, but E.’s made it very worthwhile. She only recently began to "loaf" in my lap and I love it, even during inopportune moments like Zoom meetings. Lunchtime! Today it’s tomato basil soup I made over the weekend with open-faced grilled cheese on french bread. The bread is getting stale but it’s almost finished anyhow, and slathering it with cheese and butter works wonders. I put out the kitty’s lunch, too. E. eats some of it then jumps into my bed, curling up for a midday nap. Wish I could do the same. Sigh. I buckle down and get back to work, now doing somewhat-tedious data entry. After about an hour and a half I decide to walk to the library to print my mom’s forms. I order a Toasted White Hot Chocolate with almond milk from Starbucks ($4.60) so I have something warm to drink on my walk. I’m not a coffee drinker because of my caffeine sensitivity. Sometimes even a mug of black tea will make me lightheaded if I drink it too fast! Evening Work day is over. I outline my to-do list for tomorrow and cross off the things I accomplished today. My Dad is downstairs to pick up the forms I printed for my mom. After dropping off the forms I change into comfy clothes and assign myself a freelance assignment. I’m applying for a weekend writing workshop next month that will cost $300. I may not get in, but in case I do, I want to be prepared! The fun thing about my freelancing is that I get to choose the topics I want to write about. I select an assignment on skincare products. Time to make breakfast for dinner: smashed fingerling potatoes with sauteed bell pepper, red onion, and broccoli topped with a fried egg and half an avocado. Seasoned with Lawry's and drizzled with sriracha. I get cozy on my loveseat to eat dinner. I also send an email to a man I've been corresponding with daily, D, for the last month and a half. We met out of the blue on an online forum - not Reddit - and have been enjoying each other's online company :) I'm not rushing to label anything, especially since he lives a state away. We're just seeing where things go for now. For the rest of the evening I read my book while E. sleeps curled up next to me and Wendy Williams plays on TV. Then I get into my nighttime routine: smoke from my one hitter, put on some music and hop in the shower, where I also wash my face. Out the shower, I lotion up with shea butter and rub a gentle toner on my face. I make a mental note to re-up on weed soon. It's taxed to hell (welcome to Cook County. They tax everything here) but at least it's stimulating the local economy. I floss and brush my teeth before getting under the covers. TOTAL: $4.60 Day 2 - Thursday Morning My body naturally wakes me up around 7:30. I remain in bed, mostly browsing Reddit on my phone, before committing to getting out of bed. I feed E. her breakfast and daily probiotic, take gummy vitamins and clean the last of my dishes from the night before. The sun pours through my south-facing windows and my heart sings - yesss, let there be light! I brush my teeth, moisturize my hair with coconut oil and moisturize my face. I pick out a black ribbed turtleneck and black high-waist jeans to wear, but ultimately decide to rock my loungewear until I have to leave my apartment. I make a smoothie with the other avocado half from last night, frozen mango chunks, the last of my frozen blueberries, ginger, almond milk, and honey. I highly recommend avocados in smoothies. The creamy texture is to die for! I log into my work email and have a couple fires to put out. While I work, I polish off the rest of my Vitner’s Crunchy Kurls. IYKYK. I also reply to my email from D. this morning. Yesterday we were both in bad moods but this morning we’re doing better, mood wise. We talk about how rough our Januaries were - with my mom recovering from COVID and his dad in the hospital since the beginning of the year - and how we deserve a nice treat for getting through the month. We agree that lifetime supplies of books (for me) and movies (for him) would be fitting. afternoon My morning was full speed ahead but things are slowing down so I pause to read a Money Diary on here. I so admire this diarist’s conviction in language learning/maintenance! My French is dans la poubelle because I haven’t kept up in a long time. For a while I’d do Duolingo, watch French-language movies and shows on Netflix, and book trips to Francophone cities so I could practice speaking (last trip was Montreal in December 2018). When COVID blows over I want to go to Martinique. I remind myself to check out some French-language films soon. I’m open to any recommendations, especially media that focuses on Francophones outside of France, or those from immigrant communities :) I return to my data entry task. Giving away grants is fun. Tracking dollar amounts and grantee info with excel formulas, less so. I finish up the last of my soup and grilled cheese sandwich and give E. her lunch. I put on the student loan episode of Patriot Act as I eat. I’d truly be wowed if student loan forgiveness actually came to fruition. It’s either somewhat likely or not likely at all, depending on who you ask. Post-lunch, I’m craving cupcakes bad. Did I mention I have an unrelenting sweet tooth? I look up cupcakes near me and mentally bribe myself with a cupcake order if I get my work done. evening My cupcake craving has subsided. I'll see how I'm feeling tomorrow. I normally eat dinner around 7 or 8pm but opt for an early dinner today: my leftover Mongolian Beef and peapod tips in garlic sauce, yum. I ordered Chinese takeout on Sunday. While my rice cooks, I bundle up for a trip to Walgreens. When I'm there I get a big thing of Dawn dish soap, some antibacterial wipes that are on sale, a bag of roasted cashews, a Reese's Fast Break bar, and a small bag of Pirate's Booty ($16.83). By the time I get back my rice is nearly finished. My sink has some dirty dishes, so I wash those before reheating the Mongolian beef and peapod tips on my stove top. I'm one of those weirdos without a microwave… don't miss it at all though. I dig into my leftovers and reply to a message from D. which is quite imaginative. In the sexual sense ;) D. has a very sensual way with words and as a writer of course I'm into it. I go back for seconds, finishing the rest of my takeout leftovers. After dinner and some more reddit browsing I do my evening shower routine. At 10:30 pm my upstairs neighbor is annoyingly doing jumping jacks (that’s what it sounds like) or something that makes it very hard to focus. Ugh. TOTAL: $16.83 DAY 3 - Friday MorningI fell asleep unexpectedly and woke up around 2am. This kind of thing happens a lot. I guess my cat has adapted too, she’s always bugging me for food in the early morning hours. I feed my cat, brush my teeth, crawl back into bed and fall asleep an hour or so later. I’m up again at 7:30, laying in bed before officially getting up. My mom calls me and I remember I promised to order her a Lyft to work. Her workplace has the COVID vaccine and she’s going to get the first dosage. She mentions that some symptoms are coming back - like shortness of breath, which she didn’t even have the first time - even though she’s been on the mend for the past week and just got the go-ahead from her doctor to work again. After I order my mom the Lyft ($31.46 incl. tip) I indulge in my nasty habit of googling medical stuff. I find an article about a woman who ended up in the hospital unexpectedly, 5 MONTHS after getting symptoms. Cue cortisol levels going up. I also have a work meeting this morning that I’m nervous about, having never led it alone before. I get out of bed, feed my cat her breakfast + probiotic, take gummy vitamins, and get dressed with a black turtleneck, black jeans, and small hoop earrings. I try to breathe and remind myself that all will be fine. I have a habit of catastrophizing and generally thinking in worst-case scenarios, if that wasn’t already obvious. My meeting ends up going perfectly fine though, and my mom texts me later to say she took the train home (my Dad needed the car for work this morning). She is feeling fine for now. Since I skipped my morning smoothie I make one now with pear, kale, frozen strawberries, almond milk and honey. Eh, I’ve had better. But it’s drinkable. afternoon My morning flew! I’m running low on food so for lunch, I throw some crinkle cut fries in the oven. Grab an avocado, red onion, and a roma tomato from the fridge to make a quick guac. I also make a side of sriracha mayo. Today is payday. It’s my rent paycheck so I’m not as excited tho. While my fries are in the oven I move some money to my Roth IRA. I watch one of my favorite Youtubers, King of Reads, while I eat my lunch. He has an interesting take on Gamestop Gate and basically says, abolish all this stock market shit. I do think there are a lot of evils in American capitalism, which was literally built off the backs of s colonized peoples. Like is this system even for us? After lunch I get back to work. I also do something I seldom do: order groceries off Instacart. The anxiety of the day has drained me and I don’t feel like lugging a bunch of groceries home. Plus, the store I order from is cheaper than the one closest to me. I get some jasmine rice, a family pack of Nongshim ramen, green onions, carrots, zucchini, sirloin steak, ginger root, yellow onions, chili paste, bell peppers, white mushrooms, yellow squash, bok choy, kombucha, bamboo skewers, grape tomatoes, a bottle of Apothic Red and some hazelnut cookies. Add $10 for tip ($74.48). I do walk to the local grocery store anyway to 1) get some fresh air while it’s still daylight and 2) pick up smoothie ingredients. From there I get a big bag of frozen mixed berries, frozen mango chunks, an avocado, three bananas, almond milk, coconut sparkling water, and a sweet Belgian waffle ($18.15). Evening I knock out the last of my work tasks just in time for teletherapy at 5:10. I love my therapist. Been seeing her for going on three years and she’s changed my life. We talk and I feel lighter, remembering the progress I’ve made since I first walked into her office crying in 2018. After we hang up I get an email receipt for the cost, which is accounted for in monthly expenses. I put away my instacart delivery and message a bit more with D. Even though we’re just emailing, I truly enjoy his company. He makes me feel incredibly attractive and soft. Glass of red wine in one hand, I play with E. for 15 minutes. Despite her age (over 10) she’s spry and will bug the hell out of me to indulge her. I spend the rest of the evening on the couch decompressing with my wine. I do my nightly shower routine but skip the weed because I know it'll make me fall asleep ASAP. Then I fry up the rest of my breakfast for dinner ingredients (minus avocado and egg) and eat them with sriracha. TOTAL: $124.09 DAY 4 - Saturday morning Oops. Fell asleep and woke up at an odd hour. Again. Go brush my teeth and floss. My kitty is very awake and bugging me for attention so I smoke, play with her a bit, and go back to sleep. Wake up a few hours later. I hear the unmistakable retching of my cat throwing up. Maybe she went too long without food...I mop up the small puddle with paper towels and spray my rug liberally with Nature's Miracle. When I feed E. her breakfast + probiotic she keeps it all down. I take gummy vitamins and get back into bed. From my phone, I go to my local dispensary's website to place an order for pick up, ultimately choosing a strain I've had before that's on sale. I log into my checking account to transfer money to my mom (accounted for in monthly expenses). Actually get out of bed for real around 9:45am. Scoop E.’s litter box and prepare to get some freelance work done. I make a mango, pear and avocado smoothie with almond milk and honey and sit down to work. Girls plays in the background. I never watched this show when it was popular and was surprised by how funny it is (albeit problematic for a number of reasons). Afternoon Snack break! I brew some black tea and have it with the hazelnut cookies I got yesterday. 90 minutes later, once I’m two-thirds through my assignment, I make actual lunch: ramen noodles spruced up with minced garlic and ginger, scallion whites, bok choy, and mushrooms. All topped with scallion greens. Easy and d e l i c i o u s. There’s another snowstorm, urgh. I’m walking to pick up my weed and from my window, it doesn’t look too bad right now. Preorder a Honey Citrus Mint from Starbucks for the long walk ($3.27) and bundle up. It’s an hour round trip but I love walking and don’t really work out so...I take my exercise where I can get it. Stop by the ATM to withdraw cash for flower ($70). On my way back from picking up I indulge in a carrot cake slice from a popular bakery in the area. ($8.13 incl. tip). Okay, I’m set on sweets for awhile. For now :) Evening I finally wrap up my freelance assignment and share it with my editor. Shower time. Take a hit from my one hitter and do my nightly routine. Once finished, I change my mind on dinner. I’d originally planned to make a quick "bibimbap" (air quotes because it's very much a knock off) and even steamed rice ahead of time, but carrot cake is sounding good right now. Carrot cake it is! I have some more hazelnut cookies for a well-balanced meal. Give the kitty her dinner and fall asleep with the TV on. TOTAL: $81.40 DAY 5 - Sunday Morning Woke up at an odd hour again. (around 4 am). E. is being a butt once again so I feed her an early breakfast with her probiotic. Brush my teeth, floss, and go back to sleep for a few hours. Get up and out of bed for real around 9:30 and clean up a bit, doing one load of laundry and vacuuming my rug and floors. I finally cook and eat the bibimbap meant for yesterday (minus the egg). I have a virtual date with a college friend I haven’t spoken to in a while, so we spend a few hours catching up! My friendship with her is ever-evolving. She was someone I put on a pedestal for a long time, until she disappointed me when I really needed her and hurt me deeply. I’ve worked to let go of that resentment and remind myself that 1) she is very much human, 2) she is not a better person than I am and 3) I can’t expect everyone to have the same heart that I have. Tough but necessary lessons to learn. Afternoon I really should deep clean E’s litter box today but ehhhh, not feeling it. I clean my bathtub, bathroom sink and mirror instead and wipe down some surfaces. I also sip some red wine blended with frozen strawberries (10/10, would recommend!) and start meal prepping for later. I’m making suya - West African meat skewers - so I thinly slice my sirloin steak while it’s semi-frozen and refrigerate the rest to fully defrost. I also chop up more garlic, ginger, bok choy, mushrooms, and scallions for ramen later. I know I’m going to get high very soon and won’t want to do too much, so I’m doing what future high-me will thank me for. Light an oudh incense stick, reply to a message from D., and submit my $250 invoice for freelance work. Put food out for E. The snow is still pouring in from yesterday. Maybe we’ll get those 10 inches of snow after all. I smoke a bit and cook the same ramen as yesterday but add a fried egg and some sesame oil. I inhale the whole thing and drink all the broth, either it's really this amazing or I'm just stoned. For dessert, I brew black tea and have it with the rest of my hazelnut cookies. evening Shower routine time! As much as I hate cleaning the bathtub, that first shower afterwards is the best. Wash my hair with Aussie Moist conditioner (I keep my hair very short and cut it myself) and moisturize with copious coconut oil. Listen to one of my favorite podcasts while in the shower, Say Your Mind with Kelechi Okafor. I love listening to her and her brother’s banter, it feels like I'm among friends. I've been eating throughout the day so I'm not too hungry come dinner time. I have some crinkle cut fries with sriracha mayo and crack open a kombucha. Rewatch more old episodes of Girls. Why is Adam Driver so attractive to me, even if his character on the show is awful (they're all awful, really)? TOTAL: $0 Day 6 - Monday morning Odd sleep hours strike again! I should mention that I also brush my teeth while I’m in the shower, lest you think I brush once a day only :) Take gummy vitamins and give my nagging E. her early morning meal after playing with her a bit. Scroll on Reddit until I fall back asleep. Get up and start the day for real at 8:40. Clean a few dirty dishes from last night and give E. breakfast, round #2 with her probiotic. Brush my teeth moisturize my hair, and choose an oatmeal, knee-length knit dress to wear with small hoop earrings. I make a smoothie with a navel orange, some frozen strawberries, frozen banana that I almost forgot about, and almond milk. It’s February now. Happy Black History/Present/Future Month. February is actually one of my least favorite months but after the January I’ve had, I’m ready to move on swiftly. E. is fascinated by all the snowblowing that our neighbors do outside the window. Chicago hasn’t been hit this hard with snow in 5 years - 9 inches! This is a very slow morning, work wise. Snack on cashews. Work on some excel data and open a tab for Girl Scout Cookies. It’s that seasonnnn. Note that there’s a four box minimum to get cookies. I’ll save my cookie order for next week. afternoon The sunlight is giving me life today. I’m getting my Vitamin D through the window, though a walk to the beach sounds lovely. After doing a bit more work, it’s lunch time. I steam some jasmine rice and fry carrots, zucchini, mushrooms, bok choy, and scallion whites in soy sauce and chili paste for my knockoff bibimbap. With an egg this time. Then I decide to bundle up and walk to the beach for additional vitamin D. I only live five minutes away :) . The sand and shoreline are all covered in snow but peaceful nonetheless. I've actually never been to the beach in the dead of winter before. God, I love Lake Michigan. Never understood the hype around oceans, especially because you can't drink the water. Have my phone check in with my boss. Message a bit with D. and round up my tasks for the day. evening D. encouraged me to follow my impulses and order the greasy pizza I’m craving right now. But I have food in the fridge. Sigh. Cut up my veggies and season them for veggie kabobs to go with the suya, which has marinated in a spice rub. Put the veggies and meat on skewer sticks and put it all in the oven. It comes out…okay-ish. The meat is a bit overdone and not as flavorful as I'd hoped. Not terrible for a first try, I suppose. Eat two veggie kabobs and two suya sticks. Fall down the Reddit rabbithole for way too damn long. Also check on my mom and how she's doing. She said she's okay now, taking things one day at a time. Feed the kitty her dinner. Do my nighttime routine (including brushing my teeth) and snuggle in bed to watch more Girls. Snack on graham crackers since I have no other sweets or candy handy. TOTAL: $0 Day 7 - Tuesday morningMe and my fucked up sleep schedule. No judgment, plz. Wake up at an odd hour again, brush my teeth, feed the cat, smoke a bit, and go back asleep. My mom calls me at 8 to tell me she might need me to call her a Lyft again - this is not a typical nor regular expense btw - because she has one of her work trainings and my Dad took the car for work. She asks if I still want to go to Nigeria this summer since she’s about to get tickets. IDK! I’m not comfortable traveling internationally...but my Nigerian passport also expires this year and it was a huge pain in the ass to get it in the first place. I enjoy visiting, though I always have a lot of personal shit to navigate while there. Being part of a diaspora is complicated. Also wake up to a steamy message from D. Steamy enough for me to get myself off, truly the best way to start any morning. My period has started...fun. I was expecting it though. Feed E. her breakfast with a probiotic, take gummy vitamins, brush my teeth, moisturize hair, and get dressed in a grey turtleneck, black Adidas soccer pants, and gold hoop earrings. Blend frozen mango chunks, a small banana, greek yogurt and almond milk into a smoothie. I also brew a cup of lemon tea. Pop two ibuprofen and start my work day with a staff meeting. afternoon Light a candle and keep working! Ok, I actually break for a few YouTube videos, one from MelinaPendulum about the Sex And the City reboot. To sum it up: why do one?? What’s the point if Samantha isn’t even coming back? I put out E.’s lunch. I also steam some jasmine rice to eat with the suya and veggie kabobs from last night. Damn I wish I had some steak sauce. Oh well. Eat lunch and call a Lyft for my mom. ($25.99, incl. tip). Work with more Sex and the City in the background. EveningThe work day has ended and I am desperately in need of snacks! I load $10 on my Starbucks app and then decide to not get anything. I planned to fuck up some hot chocolate but the way my cramps are fading and coming back, it’s best to stay away from a drink with 57 grams of sugar. Pick up some Lysol wipes, a bottle of club soda, Fig Newtons, Ritz Crackers to go with the block of cheese in my fridge, a Reese’s Fast Break bar, and some Haribo Happy Cola gummies. ($11.69) Get home, pour a small glass of Apothic Red and play with E. for a little bit. Then go down another Reddit rabbithole before making my dinner - ramen, minus the egg. Still delicious! Message D. for a bit and do my shower routine. I did not read very much this week, maybe it’s a testament to me not liking my book that much? Hmmm....my neighbor starts his incredibly annoying exercise routine and I fall asleep waiting for it to stop. TOTAL: $47.68 -- GRAND TOTAL = $274.60 Food + Drink = $133.37 Fun / Entertainment = $70 Home + Health = $13.78 Other = $57.45 All in all, this was an unsurprising week, especially since I’m already in the habit of tracking expenses daily. The two atypical things were the Lyft rides for my mom - an infrequent occurrence - and my weed purchase, which happens once monthly. I suppose I could have included that in my monthly expenses. Please don’t roast me for my sleep schedule! I know issa mess. Also, I feed my cat four times a day in case that’s unclear. Edit: Any and every time I left my home I wore a mask and then washed my hands thoroughly upon return.
An Analysis of RTA, SG's Unit Balance, and Why Archdemon's Shadow is Scary
Introduction
Hi! My name is LucinaFanBoy, or LFB to most. You probably have never heard of me; but you might have seen me getting outsped in Champion RTA the past couple of seasons on streams or youtube videos. I am a ‘whale’ (dropped about $2k over my time playing this game no regrets), that started playing with the first Dizzy banner. I have been fortunate to experience many aspects of PvP, whether it’s in GW (dabbled in Top 50 a couple of times), RTA (hovering around rank 500 most of the time), or even just regular arena. In the past couple of months, the game has seen many new changes, both good and bad. While there has been a lot of things that SG has done to alleviate many of the issues in the game, it has been troubling how much negativity and/or ridiculous demands have tended to plague this game and the community overall revolving around heroes. Because of this, I felt a need to analyze how the meta has shifted in PvP, alongside how SG has chosen to respond in terms of unit releases and balance changes.
The Current State of PvP (RTA)
DISCLAIMER: I tend to be a speed contesting player (control/cleave), so my analysis may seem skewed one way or another compared to your own viewpoints. Everyone has their own experiences in PvP, and I’m not going to claim that my experience is everyone’s. From my experience, the upper levels of RTA are currently dominated by 3 types of units. In order to more easily demonstrate this fact, I will use the data from ShotgunShogun’s RTA tournament as a reference. Obviously, every person has a different playstyle and will encounter different units, especially outside of a tournament setting. However, the added importance of reliability in a tournament, combined with the pool of players involved allows for this data to remain as a representation. 1. Units that, when left unchecked, that can 1v4 a typical team. Units such as these are prime candidates for a preban, and often boast higher pick rates as a result. Examples of these units would be R. Violet, A. Vildred, A. Ravi, SSB, fire Ravi, Landy, and S. Tenebria. All of these units when left unchecked in the appropriate comps will lead to you losing inevitably, and oftentimes warrant a response in your draft. 2. Units that are relevant outside of turn 1, remaining useful throughout the battle. Units such as these are generally picked earlier into the draft, as they are flexible and remain relevant for most of the comps in the game. Examples would be Fluri, A. Ras, F. Ceci, A. Tywin, TM Lulu, Lilias, Cerise, Diene, and so on. No matter what team composition you are running, these units will always have some sort of relevancy. 3. Units that counter units from categories 1 and 2. These units are often picked as a reaction to an opponent’s draft. Examples would be Last Rider Krau, G. Purrgis, F. Maya, A. Cidd/Coli, etc. Obviously, I didn’t name all of the units on this list as examples, but all of the units represented on the chart can fit under one of these 3 categories. The issue I immediately encountered however, when attempting to first use the categorization, was that none of these trends were objectifiable. The 1v4 ability of a unit is not inherently objective, and the potential for a unit to ‘1v4’ is strictly based on the drafts of both sides. ‘Counters’ to the first two categories always depend on the units in the first two categories.
Trends that SG has taken notice of
So, as I was looking at the usage chart, I was wondering if I could find any objective trends that could offer a clue to why/how the meta shaped up this way. Then, when Archdemon’s Shadow preview went live, I immediately realized the major trends, and got the urge to write this analysis. Trend #1: Passive Abilities Units: S. Teneb, F. Kluri, LR Krau, F. Ceci, R. Violet, A. Tywin, A. Vild, A. Ravi, BM Haste, SSB, Ravi, Landy, LQC, Alencia, T. Surin, F. Maya. G. Purg, A. Coli, A. Cidd. Most units in the list are known for their passive. Their entire kit revolves so heavily around their passive, that if the passive were to be replaced with a regular skill, they would be much weaker, and lose their unit identity. If A. Vild did not have their passive, they would be garbage. A lot of the counterplay against these units revolve around countering only their passive; restriction against G. Purg, AoE against S. Teneb S2, Unbuffable against LR Krau/F. Ceci, extinction against Arby, or avoiding debuffs against A. Tywin/F. Maya. Trend #2: Overloaded Kit Units: F. Kluri, A. Ras, A. Tywin, TM Lulu, F. Lidica, Lilias, Cerise, O. Sigret, Diene, Ruele, Dizzy, Rose, Landy This list is comprised of units that can do much more than 3 skills/passive should let a unit ever do. Most of these units can be slotted into popular team comps, and as a result tend to be prioritized early. I don’t think that I need to really elaborate too much more about this. Trend #3: Self-sufficient Units Units: R. Violet, A. Vildred, A. Ravi, SSB, TM Lulu, Ravi, T. Surin, Basar, Dizzy, A. Cidd, A. Coli, Sage Baal Should be self-explanatory as well since all of these units don’t need too much outside help from the draft. List of Units that were buffed/changed by SG according to the previous 3 trends. Units: S. Teneb, F. Kluri, A. Ras, A. Tywin, A Vild., A. Ravi, F. Lidica, Cerise, Ravi, Landy LQC, Doris, T. Surin, Sage Baal, G. Purg, A. Coli, A. Cidd. All these units are buffed by SG to an extent, whether if it is through an SC, or balance changes. Arby is still stronger than their initial release. This shows a trend of SG showing a lot of favor towards units that they show love to, and how these post-release buffs have led to these units having a cemented place in the current meta.
SG’s Unit Philosophy in Action
The 3 trends that were identified in the previous section have been the benchmark for how Smilegate has approach units’ gameplay designs, both through their unit balance patches and their approach towards releasing units. SG’s Philosophy Behind Balancing In order to best demonstrate how SG’s philosophy follows these trends, I will be looking at case studies from Balance Adjustments beginning in April 2020. This allows us to explore Smilegate’s shift in attitude towards unit balance as the PvP meta began to truly evolve with Season 1. April 2020 Trend #1: B. Romann now has double the chance to proc his S2 when his target is silenced. Trend #2: Overloaded Kit; Sigret gains Extinction, which is simply a cherry on top for her kit. F. Lidica gets a team-wide skill nullifier with a crit on S3, which is also arguably over the top as well. Trend #3: Lidica and B. Romann’s ability to potentially remove immunity with their S3s is incredibly potent, allowing them to control enemy compositions/units on their own. B. Romann’s S2 proc chance getting increased also leads to more self-sufficiency. June 2020 Trend #1: A. Tywin (S2 changed to any team member is debuffed when he is hit) and T. Surin (added cleanse and stealth to S2) receive buffs to their passives, resulting in their use suddenly skyrocketing after this patch. Trend #2: A. Tywin and T. Surin both get their S3s changed to be much more overwhelming. A. Tywin’s unhealable turns into a stun, while T. Surin adds 1 turn silence. Crescent Moon Rin’s S2 receives a stun and a beneficial condition when the target is not buffed. Trend #3: Charlotte’s S1 change allows her to be used without any explicit support in terms of DPS. A. Tywin and T. Surin both become extremely difficult/obnoxious to deal with and are easily self sufficient on their own. Lilibet’s S3 gains 20% hit chance to hit MLDB Arbys, and to allow flexibility with her EEs. All these units became much more self-sufficient as a result. August 2020 Trend #1: B. Romann’s passive gets buffed from 10-50% to 15-50%. Trend #2: Adlay S3 now dispels in an AOE (85%) and increases skill cooldown by one turn (85%). Trend #3. B. Romann now strips 2 debuffs (to counter F. Ceci, Benevolent Monarch), granting him much more self-sufficiency. Melissa can now guaranteed get an extra turn from S3 and ignore effect resistance on S3 with a soul burn (which she can give herself via a Tagahel’s). These changes allowed B. Romann to become a relatively accessible first turn stripper, and Melissa to become a soft counter to R. Violet. October 2020 Trend #1: SBA’s S2 now applies 1 burn (60%) and increases Cr by 25% (from 20%). Ravi’s passive grants 10% effectiveness per stack. Ken’s S3 now costs less fighting spirit. Trend #2: Ravi’s S1 now stuns. Kise’s kit overall receives a touch up that makes the kit overloaded to an extent. SBA’s S3 now has unhealable. General Purrgis now does damage with his kit due to HP scaling. Trend #3: Ravi’s buffs allow her to be both a self-sufficient bruiser and cc bot. SBA is now self-sufficient, as she can constantly proc her own S1-S2 combo. Kitty Clarissa’s soul burn allows her to be self sufficient with stripping buffs with her S2. Ken and Kise both have had some of the conditions in their kit to be much easier to achieve. November 2020 Trend #1: Landy’s passive received a buff to charge much faster. Trend #2: Landy and Cerise’s kits both received a lot of buffs that makes their kits overloaded. LQC’s S3 now has a Sez-style nuke against dark element heroes, and S1 does more damage, contributing to the power of her kit alongside her S2 passive. Sage Baal gets buffs across the board as well, leading to his kit being overloaded as well. Trend #3: Cerise and Landy are now easily some of the most self-sufficient units in the game. Cerise now has advantageous element on her S3, allowing her to strip earth units. Landy’s passive now charges faster, and is much more reliable into buffed enemies, and does more damage with a full focus S3 (50% defense pen at full focus). Sage Baal is much more self-reliable, as he can shove himself up after his S2 via his S1, and his S3 gives a form of self-sustain. January 2021 Trend #1: BW Iseria gets immortality on her S2 passive. Trend #2: BW Iseria now has a 100% chance to apply unbuffable/lower attack (from 85%). Combined with her accuracy and immortality, this is arguably an overloaded kit. Spez got his entire kit buffed, revolving around more utility around his S1, and Elbris passive on S3, leading to an overloaded kit. Kawerik’s S2/S3 has received an immense number of buffs, leading to another overloaded kit as well. Rikoris now has restrict on his S3, which can now be considered overloaded as well. Trend #3: ML Tieria is now a self-sufficient dogwalker. Yuna’s changes to her S2 and S3 increases her ability to cycle her skills faster, leading to more self-sufficiency. BW Iseria can now guarantee that she gets her S3 off before she dies due to the S2 passive buff. Spez can be used as a bruiser, as he is able to manipulate his own CR and grant his own ability to stun for his S3. Captain Rikoris can control comps on his own now due to restrict as well. Summary Notice how each patch had something to do with these 3 trends, and how, especially with the past couple of patch notes, has contributed towards the high pick rates of certain units (Cerise, Landy, Sage Baal, A. Tywin and T. Surin) in the tournament.
SG’s Philosophy Behind Unit Releases
Another way to observe SG’s unit Philosophy would be the release of new heroes during the same time frame. In the following section, I will be showing some examples of more units that also follow the 3 previous trends, who have not been seen in the tournament. Elphelt: While she doesn’t have a passive, her kit is extremely self-sufficient, and synergizes with itself as an anti-buff single target nuke. Ray: Ray’s kit is a hard counter to debuffs, being a premium support soulweaver against the current control meta. Celine: Celine’s ‘Blink’ is most of her kit’s identity, being a prime candidate against cleave/support in PvP. Her S3 gives her much more sustainability, dishing out damage against cleavers and non-combat skill abusers. Mui: While she’s in a weird spot for a support unit, with no passive, her kit is arguably overloaded. Coupled with her EE, she can either be used as a turn 1 unit (with S3 silence EE), or she can be used turn 2 because of her attack buff and dispelling 2 buffs. Her S2 bleeds/stuns and S1 random debuffs allow her to run as a solid support unit in control comps. Holiday Yufine: Her S2 passive allows her to dodge other control units, allowing her to be a strong option for a turn 2 CR unit. Her S1 coupled with Champion’s trophy allows her to be run with control, or to simply burn (haha get it?) the enemy composition slowly. Briar Witch Iseria: Especially with the new buffs, BW Iseria’s identity has become much more consolidated as a turn 2 dispelledps unit. The newfound immortality buff on her S2 allows her to always get her S3 off no matter what; similar to how Kayron’s can continue to be a nuisance. Despite not getting another hit chance buff (that I believe she deserved), alongside her S3 debuff chance getting increased, BW Iseria is now a unit that fufill’s SG’s 3 trends. Choux: Choux consolidated herself as a water HP scaling bruiser and is self-sufficient. Her buffs from her S3 grant her and her team added sustainability, and her S1 allows her to stack more focus for her damage source (S2). Ervalen: Ervalen’s kit is arguably overloaded against high HP enemies; his bonuses against higher HP enemies on S2 and S3 ensures that he will always be a thorn in their sides, with a barrier, immunity, and counter buff. Mort: An anti-control bruiser (no stun/sleep because of S2 passive), which also has a chance to grant 1 turns of team wise crit res + 2 turns of self speed after using S1 (can proc off of counter). I think it’s obvious how he fits the bill, even if he may seem somewhat underwhelming from a solo perspective. Fairytale Tenebria: The most recent unit that has hit live servers (as of Jan 2021); Fairytale Teneb’s kit revolves around the new debuff ‘restricted provoke’. Her S2 passive also synergizes with regular provokes as well, allowing her to be run with most control comps, and units such as Cecilia, General Purrgis, and other high health units that punish the enemy when you hit them. S3 has a dispel as well, and she is a mage that can hold violin. Not much else to say here. Other units worthy of note: Operator Sigret: Operator Sigret is honestly a success in my eyes; she’s a unit that, from my experience, has found success in higher tiers of RTA. Her S2 effectively soft counters F. Ceci and LR. Krau, who are two pillars in the meta right now. 115 speed, while slow for a turn 1 unit, is acceptable as her S3 is overloaded with utility (attack buff, dispel, CR push back). Even better, her S1 heals as well (scaling off of attack), keeping her useful even while having S2 and S3 on cooldown. The people calling for buffs honestly don’t have the gear necessary for her to be used. While yes, her gear requirement is extremely high, she is nowhere near underpowered. Desert Jewel Basar: DJ Basar has always been pointed to as a unit that needs buffs desperately. However, DJ Basar’s kit functions completely fine. The S2 passive healing ratio is incredibly strong, regardless of what units you bring alongside him. His S3 granting 30% CR, cleansing and granting 3 turns of immunity offers an incredible amount of flexibility, which is invaluable in a meta that is dominated by control. DJ Basar is effectively a unit in category 3 (a counter). I’m just really surprised that this unit isn’t more popular, especially when he counters so many key units, and allows you to play turn 2. Summary of SG’s Unit Philosophy: For the most part, SG’s unit philosophy has continually revolved around these 3 trends, and, despite having units being released on the weaker end, has been consistent in ensuring that units are consistent in terms of power levels through appropriate (while sometimes unnecessary) buffs over the past 8 months. As a result, all future units and their kit identities will be shaped by these 3 objective trends that have appeared in the highest levels of PvP. As of writing this, SG has also done a great job of releasing units that don’t strictly replace, or powercreep, older units, allowing for a fluid metagame that never suddenly changes based on new unit releases. However, I believe that Archdemon’s Shadow, an already controversial unit, tries to be part of SG’s response towards the 3 aforementioned trends, and will be incredibly difficult to both balance, and keep relevant at the same time.
Archdemon’s Shadow
With the unit preview, the goal that SG aimed to have with this unit is to revolve around the new ‘seal’ debuff. ‘Seal’ inherently is the strongest debuff in this game, shutting down the majority of the metagame. Arby doesn’t have their revive, TSurin/ATywin can’t cleanse, CZerato can’t counter, etc. As we’ve established previously, passives are often the reason why units are as strong as they are. You can technically argue, as a result, that ‘Seal’ is a soft counter to anything with a passive. This is especially useful for control players (like myself) who struggle with common counters to control. The S2 is also overloaded, having both decreased crit damage (35%), alongside self CR 25% that can occasionally proc (35/70% chance) that can add to their survivability. However, there are two issues that stick out like a sore thumb when we look at the unit relative to the 4 trends that I touched on earlier. 1.The passive ability doesn’t lend itself to the identity of the kit and is underpowered. While extra survivability is nice, and being able to self CR shove is nice, the S2 does not share enough synergy with Seal. While a 70% proc chance due to seal is nice, as we all know, anything below 100% may as well be 0%. Compare this to say ML Ara’s S2, who has a 100% chance to proc their S2, and apply *another* burn. While I’m not saying that Archdemon Shadow’s S2 should also apply Seal, I would argue that the proc chance of S2 while Seal exists should be much higher (or if not, 100%). 2.Archdemon’s Shadow kit is irrelevant outside of her S1. From my perspective, the only reason why you would ever use Archdemon’s Shadow is for ‘Seal’. The rest of their kit doesn’t have any other benefit towards teams that you would draft her with. For instance, their S3 doesn’t do anything (especially with such a low ratio and only 2 burns on a unit that you prefer bulk on) and would only be used because of their extra turn. Shadow’s S2 decreases damage suffered by a critical hit, but also applies a skill that leads to decreased hit chance; so you don’t end up utilizing the passive anymore. 3.Archdemon’s Shadow is not self-sufficient. As mentioned before, Burst only has a 70% chance to proc, even if the unit already has ‘Seal’ applied. S1 only has a 75% chance to work, and even while soul burned, it can still be 15%’d. Their S3 is horrible as well in comparison to the rest of the kit, which has been proven to lack self-sufficiency. Summary While I believe that, for the most part, the state of RTA is in a healthy place, Archdemon’s Shadow is an extremely dangerous unit to release. Either the unit, as in its current state, will be extremely underpowered and unreliable to run in a competitive environment, or the unit will be buffed at a later date, and as a result become overpowered and dominate the meta. Considering the precedent that Smilegate has been forced to adopt ever since the Sage Baal and SBA nerfs in 2019, units, such as say Briar Witch Iseria have been released in a relatively underpowered state, and then buffed in the future. I personally don’t see a way for Archdemon’s Shadow (as of right now) to either be relevant, or not overpowered, without revamping the kit entirely (ie. Move seal to S3, remove focus, etc). Thanks for reading this much! If you agree or disagree with me, please feel to start a discussion in the comments. I'm really interested if others agree with me or not on this. -LFB Edit: Also thank you for the gold ^^ just wanted to thank the person in public as well. Edit #2: Thanks to Gaunter_0Dimm for correcting me about Mort's S2. Edit #3: Thank you to EVERYONE for the awards; I'll be trying to respond to as many people as possible through the weekend.
I'm starting my second annual Small Account Challenge
Starting Net Liq: $1050 + 1 $SIRI stock valued at $6.39 Broker: Robinhood Analysis: Tradingview for charts and Tastyworks for %ITM Announcement Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bUC5tkl2u8Q Details: This will be the same as my 2020 2-10k challenge. Primarily using short put/call spreads, 45 dte, 40% ITM. This is just the starting point, I adjust based on chart. This one is just starting with less and using Robinhood instead of Tastyworks. Last one went well, even with Corona, but starting over always brings risk. I realize prior success means nothing about future returns but the first challenge ended 2020 with a 337.1% return. It started on 2/20/2020 with $2,200 and is currently sitting at $9,300 If interested you can watch some of my old videos and see if it's something you could get into following. I will complete this challenge one way or another and keep everyone updated (via ongoing youtube videos and a reddit post at end of year). Either I will hit 0 or I will hit 10k. If you have any questions please let me know and I'll answer to the best of my ability. Feel free to follow on youtube (https://youtube.com/tastytracker) and twitter (https://twitter.com/toddhorst). I post charts on twitter daily. I will be starting on monday, currently have no positions. Update: I have been asked to add more details to ensure this is a valid post. I will try to be as descriptive here to hopefully avoid a takedown. Account Setup: First, lets get out of the way, that to start you will need $1000 in a MARGIN account. Cash accounts usually don't allow spreads due to the collateral that is required. This isn't the same margin that you would use to purchase say $4000 of stocks, when you only have $2000. If you do that you are borrowing from the broker, and you pay them interest on that money. Because these are risked defined spreads, we can skate use margin, but not be charged for it because the broker knows we are only responsible for the difference between the strikes we choose. Symbols: I am only looking for best of industry type of companies, and a slow and steady up trend. That means no ipos, spacs, and generally avoid earnings. These are too risky. So I'm playing things like aapl, amzn, fb, cost, sedg, ma, etc. I have about 30 that I use and am very intimate with so I am comfortable with their ranges. This is preferred to me compared to the scan and pray method. Wait of the setup, then strike. These have the benefit of a tighter bid/ask spread. Setup: Ideally we are hugging the 20day or 50day sma line up, and are using that as support. Maybe recently there was a leg up, and we are building a base in a tight range for several days, looking likes its coiling, macd and rsi are oversold and are starting to curl up. Because Im playing quality companies, and I want to follow the trend, this means Im typically doing short put spreads, meaning I want the stock to go up in value. Entry: Looking at the 40% ITM (in the money, delta is approx), 45 days to expiration. This is a starting point. I look at the chart to see where possible levels of support may be, and try to determine if the premium the 40% itm strike gets me is adequate. Im typically looking for $160 premium, $5 wide spreads, so a $340 collateral per position. But if the chart is telling me its about to take off, its at the bottom of its channel, then I may go more aggressive (as I did today in the apple position). Exit: Right after I get filled, I enter a closing order for a 50% gain of the potential profit. This allows me to not have to watch the computer all day. I will check in once a day to see what the stock is doing. If needed I will roll puts up, or out for a credit.
Hello all, I've found with my time playing Stadia games, that I vastly prefer playing on my computer with a keyboard and mouse. This has been the case in every game I've wanted to play. That said, and what got me to try Stadia in the first place, I received both Stadia Premier Edition promotions - one for YouTube Premium, and one for Cyberpunk. The only part of that I'm using is one of the CCUs on a TV that doesn't have it built-in. So, seeing how the rest has been barely used, I figured I'd give back to one of the best communities on Reddit, and give this to someone who could really use it. I have a complete Stadia Premier Edition with original packaging, an extra white controller, a phone clip (from that guy on Etsy) and all cables and paperwork. See the attached pic. Everything's mint. I've spoken to the mods, and here's how it'll work:
Comment (top level only) on this thread between now and 11:59pm EST February 10th.
Write in said comment how/why you could benefit from receiving this bundle.
Within a day of the closing date above, I'll choose a winner from the comments (those who followed rules 1 and 2) via a random drawing.
Rules: If you are a resident of the US, I'll ask for $10 for shipping. It'll definitely be more than that, but it'll help offset the cost. If you're far from New York, I'd appreciate a little extra, but it's not required ;) If you're from outside the US, you are still eligible, but I'd need you to pay for the shipping costs, and work with me on how to ship it to you. I have no experience shipping internationally, so I don't know what to expect. If for some reason the shipping won't work out, I'll choose another winner. Only top level comments will be considered. Upvotes, nested comments, additional comments by the same user and awards will not contribute to your chances of being chosen. One "entry" per user. This is a personal giveaway, and not associated with Reddit or this subreddit or any of its moderators. Items are shipped as is, with whatever insurance the mailing method provides. I'm not responsible if you receive the package and bodily harm comes to you and/or people around you. Blah, blah, blah protecting myself. That's it! Good luck, and thanks for being a great community! Edit: Pic wasn't showing the first time. Clarified international shipping. Edit 2: Revised rules defining picking the winner. The Bundle
Detailed DD post [re-post after r/pennystocks removed it]
I posted this yesterday morning (UK time) but after 5 hours or so, pennystocks deleted the original post. A few people messaged me asking for it to be shared in a few High Tide specific pages. So here it is! -- This is my first time posting a DD post – a friend of mine who moderates on SPACs has shared some analysis I have written previously, but I’m keen to share this here, and see if there is any appetite for sharing my own personal written DD I have on the 30 stocks I have across a number of different portfolios. I have modified this format, as it was originally a script for a video which I created on the stock. If you prefer to listen – check it out here: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw Some of the market stats (market cap, current multiples, etc.) are correct as of Feb-06, and clearly a little outdated since the price movements. Not a financial advisor, do your own DD. I am long HITI and have an expectation of a long term hold on this stock. Overview
High Tide Canada-based cannabis retail company, operating under multiple brands. It operates under 3 core divisions:
Brick and mortar retail – 4 key brands with just under 70 locations in Canada. Brands include: Canna Cabana, New Leaf, Meta Cannabis and Kushbar. Forecast to have around 115 stores by end of 2021
Online retail – has 2 brands, both of which attract millions of viewers per month – Grasscity.com and CBDcity.com
Wholesale – manufacturer of paraphernalia in US and Canada. Number of products are branded with various celebrities, Snoop Dogg, Paramount Pictures, Trailer Park Boys and many more
Has good c-level execs and experienced executive board; hold significant stake in the business. CEO Raj Grover holds just over 21% of the shares
Currently has a market cap of around $280m. Still significant upside to the valuation – see analysis later in post
Investment Merits Very strong market growth:
Business has demonstrated growth both organically (through new store openings, more online sales and greater wholesale sales), as well as inorganically through M&A
Growth in markets which High Tide has a physical presence in is expected to be very strong. North American cannabis market (Canada and US) is forecast to grow by 30% a year to 2027 (source: research and markets)
Analysts covering High Tide are forecasting growth in excess of this, which is positive to see and implies capturing market share
New markets / geographies ‘opening up’, legalizing and regulating cannabis is also an exciting and realistic prospect for incremental growth:
The US federal legalization debate is on the table
Many other countries are considering this too and High Tide is well positioned for these; this is catalyzed by the fact that government debt has increased significantly as part of the response to the COVID-19 health crisis. This needs to be repaid somehow, and increasing tax rates on existing taxes is an unpopular political move. Finding new tax revenues is a more palatable way of increasing tax revenues for governments. This is especially important in countries where elections are upcoming.
Personally I do expect to see this accelerate the agenda for the regulation and legalization of cannabis in many new countries
Whilst predominantly Canada and US based, High Tide does have presence in some markets where cannabis is not regulated or legalized, the UK for example (~10% of Grasscity sales are made here) and so it is well positioned with a strong and established brand to capitalize on this opportunity, when / if the market ‘opens up’
Regulation
High Tide benefits from the regulatory focus and overhang on the cannabis retail sector as it represents a strong barrier to entry, making it more challenging for new competitors to enter market
Participants in the market need to have licenses and ensure consistent compliance with laws to continue operating – failure to comply can result in significant financial penalties
Personally I normally don’t like investing into retail. There are usually fairly limited barriers to entry, minimal differentiation and negligible customer loyalty, however the cannabis market does have different characteristics in this respect and makes it a more compelling proposition
Regulation also benefits those with scale, something High Tide has as the leading player in the market. It costs money to obtain and retain licences to operate and it costs money to ensure compliance with all the laws and regulations and that all staff are acting in accordance with these
Some parallels in this respect which can be drawn to casino gaming in casinos; you don’t see new casinos popping up at the same rate which you see new restaurants or apparel stores opening
Demand
There’s a lot to like about the demand dynamics for High Tide. It’s vice-nature means that demand is less correlated to disposable incomes. Given where we are in economic cycle, especially important consideration
For those doubting this, check alcohol, tobacco or gambling expenditure across economic cycles historically, for a proxy
Strong performance throughout COVID-19 crisis
Despite heavy weighting towards brick and mortar, (the most hard hit part of retail) it has effectively managed the shift to online, which is a positive
Has relied on government support and financial assistance in the form of job retention schemes (address in more detail later in post)
This demonstrates management are capable and have effectively navigated the challenging situation
Data
Massively summarized from the video, (and my video on KERN) so check that out if interested in this point, however, they have unique access to supply chain data which could be monetized effectively and generate strong levels of recurring revenues
Other established sectors have a trusted party with such unique access to data (e.g. alcohol, lithium, different foods, etc.) and the opportunity here is enormous
I would like to see High Tide capitalize on this
Forecasts financials & analysts
Currently 2 analysts covering High Tide, both have a buy rating on the business
Their coverage is slightly outdated (expect this being updated soon and a further catalyst for positive price action) and their price targets are 60c; at the time their reports were published, they were forecasting a 4x upside (HITI was trading at ~15c)
Same analysts also forecasting strong growth - 77% CAGR to 2022. They are forecasting revenues of around $250m and EBITDA of $46m. A reminder here, these are professional analysts, not YouTube students – these come from their financial models, the assumptions of which are discussed with management
Going to go quick here, its explained more slowly in the video but High Tide is currently valued at a significant discount to the other listed peers
Looking at EV / FY+1 Sales multiples – EBITDA not meaningful as some of the peer group are EBITDA negative and High Tide itself has only recently become EBITDA positive
Personally, I think Planet13 is the most comparable given its business model
Taking both Planet13 multiple and peer group average multiple, this is then applied to High Tide’s forecast FY+1 sales to calculate an enterprise value – this is adjusted for net debt to get to a market capitalization and then divided by the share count to get an implied share price
The table below shows the implied stock price valuations from this analysis
Net debt will change in coming year given the capital structure and a large number of convertible notes – this has been ignored given it will have small impact on the price
The share count will change as a result of dilution from various instruments – if this bothers you massively then look at the valuation discount on the basis of the enterprise value as it does not impact this (and only slightly on the market cap given minimal impacts to cash from instrument execution, etc.)
Not accounting for any stock split, consolidation or any other M&A deals
The FY21 financials are on the basis of the mean broker estimates from Thomson Reuters – Seeking Alpha has different and slightly outdated ones
US is only a small part of the market which High Tide addresses, while a change in regulation would have a big impact on the company, currently it is unlikely this would happen, given the discussions about potential federal legalization
Canada regulation is established and not going anywhere
Other countries likely to legalize and regulate cannabis, as outlined earlier
Dilution
No escaping that there will be some significant dilution for shareholders, as pointed out in the table below, but this should be already priced into the stock
Potential that new equity issuances could occur to help finance growth, but provided this growth is delivered, it should be accretive for the stock price
A risk that investors need to be aware with for all companies which have relied on government financial support during COVID-19 measures. Such support has resulted in the number of businesses going bankrupt decreasing massively – this is at a lower level than it ever normally is and is masking some real underlying issues within companies. As investors we need to be open eyed about this
As High Tide has benefited from support in the form of the Canada’s Emergency Wage Support scheme, there is the risk that once this is lifted it may become apparent that the cost base has not been effectively managed
Personally, I think this is mitigated by the synergy analysis conducted as part of the M&A. A full cost base analysis would have been conducted to calculate the potential $8.4m synergies so strong likelihood that this is under control, but should keep on our radar and reassess
Marketing expenses and celebrity licenses
Need more information to ascertain whether these are underpinned by a compelling ROI. Seen a lot of people suggest this is a great positive, but the impact on sales volumes from these is unknown, as is the terms of these license agreements (e.g. split between upfront fee vs. volume-based fee)
No escaping the fact that it is an increased cost and so need to understand the ROI this generates to determine whether it really is compelling
Is there really more demand to pay a premium for Snoop Dogg bongs, Guns n Roses papers, Cheech & Chong grinders, or whatever they may be?
So far management have suggested this has been helpful in driving new sales, but this is something to dig into more
Will this be a game-changer in the lithium mining world? Lake Resources NL (ASX:LKE, OTC: LLKKF)
Repost 29-12-2020 + update 30-01-2021 While I was editing my post yesterday it was suddenly removed from pennystocks, and can't post it back, so post it here. In the link below, the valuable comments in the removed post can still be viewed. So here my DD repost from 1 month back who have missed it. https://www.reddit.com/pennystocks/comments/kms1jw/best_hidden_undervalued_penny_stock_to_buy_now/ https://preview.redd.it/2is4t6hashe61.png?width=1515&format=png&auto=webp&s=28b151d6bd148bace74ccb17790b4af1f740c5ba ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________ <> Hello everyone. I think many of us already saw the performance of the OTC stock ALPP (Alpine 4 Technologies Ltd) (and many others as well). I have made some small profits of it but didn’t do my DD earlier, got it already 1 month on my watchlist and was a little bit late to step in. In October this stock was only around $0.05 and now surged past $3 in only a few months. I feel like I have missed this train so I did some research on the internet to catch the same train as ALPP and came Lake Resources NL (ASX:LKE, OTC: LLKKF) across. I did some DD and was quite positive about this company and I think it got potential in longer terms (they are still in the early stages) Same as ABML =) Currently, there is not much to find or to talk about this company on platforms like Reddit, Yahoo Finance, or Stocktwits, so I want to start to put it in a spotlight here to share my and your thoughts/opinions about this company and if it is worth it to invest in this stock. (of course, do your own DD before buying stocks) Summarized, why I think this stock has so much potential is because the technology they use will be a game-changer in the lithium mining world. It will reduce the time from brine extraction from months/years to few hours! It is sustainable, low costs efficient. It is backed by Bill gates and somewhere in a video I'm not sure, but I also heard the name Jeff Bezos and Jack Ma?. They own many lakes to operate in it. Their next milestone is waiting for the sample results they send to their partner Novonix (NVNXF). They will be given a PR soon about it, somewhere in February. Before I want to get into the company details, let me show you the current state/background of the lithium mining world. I collected some articles and put them together. (sources can be provided) Most lithium is commercially produced from either the extraction of lithium-containing salts from underground brine reservoirs or the mining of lithium-containing rock, such as spodumene.Lithium production from clay sourcesis expected to become commercially viable, though perhaps not until 2022. Lithium is a metal commonly used in batteries like the rechargeable ones found in laptops, cellphones, and electric cars as well as in ceramics and glass. It is the lightest metal on Earth and is soft enough to be cut with a knife when in its elemental form. Demand has soared in recent years as carmakers move toward electric vehicles, asmany countries including the UK, Sweden, the Netherlands, France, Norway and Canadaannounce a phase-out of combustion-engine cars. In fact,five times more lithium than is mined currently is going to be necessary to meet global climate targets by 2050, according to the World Bank. But there’s one big problem. Obtaining lithium by conventional means takes its own environmental toll, or rather three: carbon emissions, water and land. Lithium is currently sourced mainly from hard rock mines, such as those in Australia, or underground brine reservoirs below the surface of dried lake beds, mostly in Chile and Argentina. Hard rock mining – where the mineral is extracted from open pit mines and then roasted using fossil fuels – leaves scars in the landscape, requires a large amount of water and releases 15 tonnes of CO2 for every tonne of lithium, according to an analysis by the raw materials experts Minviro for the lithium and geothermal energy firm Vulcan Energy Resources. The other conventional option, extracting lithium from underground reservoirs, relies on even more water to extract the lithium – and it takes place in typically very water-scarce parts of the world, leading to indigenous communities questioning their sustainability. Extracting lithium from geothermal waters – found not just in Cornwall, but Germany and the US as well – has a tiny environmental footprint in comparison, including very low carbon emissions. https://preview.redd.it/n4lh2h3wshe61.png?width=1515&format=png&auto=webp&s=f04cd49bfeb62ca96d7711b6b07aa92b45d79b09 Geothermal brine is a hot, concentrated saline solution that has circulated through very hot rocks and become enriched with elements such as lithium, boron and potassium. In other words, the energy-intensive process of extracting lithium from solid rock is powered by naturally occurring geothermal energy. The brine in the Cornish mines has concentrations of up to 260 milligrams per litre, flowing at a rate of between 40-60 litres (8.1 to 13.7 gallons) per second. That works out as about enough lithium for a typical smartphone battery (2-3g) passing through the production process every few seconds, according to Cornish Lithium’s estimates. The demand for lithium with a lower environmental footprint appears to be gaining ground. There are signs car manufacturers including Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen are starting to think about the environmental and social impact of their electric vehicle supply chain, says Alex Keynes, clean vehicles manager at Brussels-based campaign organisation Transport and Environment. Using lithium that is already in circulation – from recycled batteries and electronics – is preferable to mining more, says Keynes. “Given the enormous demand we’re likely to see over the coming years, [it] is going to mean we need some extraction, and recovering lithium from geothermal brine looks very promising,” says Keynes. The speed of lithium extraction from brine deposits could be significantly increased using a technique recently developed by an international team of scientists. The new filtration technique mimics the capabilities of living cells and has been tailored specifically to filter lithium ions in an “ultra-fast, one-directional and highly-selective manner”. According to the researchers, the technology — which remains in an early stage — could one day reduce lithium-from-brine extraction times from several months to just a matter of hours*.* They have said they are hopeful the technique will be able to provide “a clear roadmap for resource recovery”, as well as for other uses such as “low-energy water purification” — noting the particularbenefit of greater lithium availability to “enabling electric vehicles and grid integration of renewable energy sources*”.* It is thelatest in a series of lithium extraction technology breakthroughs*, as researchers around the world seek ways to make access to this increasingly-important mineral easier and more cost-effective.* The company Lake Resources NL (ASX:LKE, OTC: LLKKF) is a clean lithium developer utilizing direct extraction technology for production of sustainable , high purity lithium from its flagship Kachi Project within the Lithium Triangle in Argentina among other projects covering 200,00 ha. This direct extraction method delivers a solution for two rising demands of electric vehicle batteries –high purity battery materials to avoid performance issues, and more sustainable, responsibly sourced materials. 1 Clean-Tech: Efficient, disruptive, cost-competitive technology using well-known water treatment re-engineered for lithium (not mining). Technology partner, Lilac Solutions Inc,supported by Bill Gates led Breakthrough Energy fund and MIT’s The Engine fund. 2 High Purity: 99.97% purity lithium carbonate samples never previously delivered at scale in a cost competitive manner for a premium price(refer ASX announcement 9 January2020 and 20 October 2020) 3 Sustainable /ESG: Far smaller environmental footprint than conventional methods, that returns virtually all water (brine) to its source without changing its chemistry, avoiding “water politics”in arid environments for a better outcome for local communities. 4 Prime Location, Large Projects: Flagship Kachi project in prime location among low cost producers with a large lease holding (70,000 ha) and expandable resource (4.4 Mt LCE) of which only 20% is used for 25 years production at 25,500tpa(JORC Resource: Indicated1.0Mt, Inferred 3.4Mt, refer ASX announcement 27 November 2018). Pre-feasibility study by tier 1 engineering firm shows large, long-life low-cost operation(refer ASX announcement 28April2020) An innovative direct extraction technique, based on a well-used ion exchange water treatment method, has been tested for over 18 months in partnership with Lilac Solutions, with a pilot plant module in California operating on Kachi brines and has shown 80-90% recoveries. Battery quality lithium carbonate(99.97% purity)has been produced from Kachi brine samples with very low impurities (refer ASX announcement 20 October 2020). The first samples of high purity (99.97%purity) battery quality lithium carbonate is being tested in a NMC622 battery by Novonix. Hazen will produce further samples for downstream supply chain participants and off-takers. This method of producing high purity lithium can revolutionize and disrupt the battery materials supply industry as it’s scalable, low cost, and delivers a consistent product quality. http://www.lakeresources.com.au/home So far I figured out companies like Energy X and Vulcan Energy Resources having plans to commercialize this kind of technology. (all based in Europe) The stock of Vulcan Energy Resources already has been surged over the year, so will Lake Resources also act the same? https://preview.redd.it/n3vk1g23the61.png?width=775&format=png&auto=webp&s=57d9fb69124c641df1dbaf3dad6c34ccc44b6ee8 Right now I have some positions in Lake Resources NL (ASX:LKE, OTC: LLKKF), they are even doing more projects, see their website. They also stated on their website that their stock is undervalued and should be around $0,29 vs $0,06 now. Depending on your opinions and point of view I might add some more positions in the future. Let me know your thoughts. Let's discuss it in Yahoo finance or Stocktwits as well, it's empty in StockTwits (LLKKF) What do you think the worth/market cap of the stock in 1or 5 years? Go do your DD before you invest in something! On youtube, there are many things to find. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Update 30-01-2021 In the beginning, in Stocktwits we only have a few watchers in the room and it was dead. https://preview.redd.it/5zo6zb5hthe61.png?width=1918&format=png&auto=webp&s=1d774333d963b60f24c1c93abd1a91c9d0124cff Now we have reached this many!!! https://preview.redd.it/gjdpnv1othe61.png?width=849&format=png&auto=webp&s=43a2995ffc638908f20e02d5cfede26d094369dd Thanks all who joined. Now with the upcoming hype, I see some more videos on youtube about this potential stock/company. Here I also want to talk about the price target. I own shares on LKE.ASX so all prices I mention are in AUD. Just some simple math. Correct me if I'm wrong. They stated that they can produce 25.000-100.000 MT lithium annually when they built their plant. That will be around end of 2022? Revenue of 1 MT is around (non premium lithium)17.000 aud. 17.000x100.000 = 1,7B annual revenue. What makes their market cap around 15B. Current mc is 296m. 15000/296= 50,7x. Current share price x multiply (0,295 x 50,7) = ~$15. So around 2022-2024 a potential realistic share price could go to $15. This price may even go higher if their pure lithium can sell for a higher price and might be listing in the NASDAQ or maybe a merge, partner announcements, extension other lake projects? I expect it will go pass $0,50 after releasing sample results from Novonix. Be patience! https://preview.redd.it/t13g3q6qvhe61.png?width=948&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a87865ebb775e2464419b46340ddb6a6e8ef138 Vulcan energy resources with this similar kind of technology has surged pass 4 euro in a month since I mentioned in the DD above (ss on 23 dec). That is 7000% gains YTD ATH!! Will LKE act the same??? https://preview.redd.it/qaxzc3dpwhe61.png?width=781&format=png&auto=webp&s=967d9c52f1529a0a84766f22a3fe668aa8433901 Hope this post was informative for you. GLTA! Please don't invest in this stock if you are negative about it! And don't dump this stock, try to make the raise healthy
Pay attention to and invest in a good quality headphone setup
TL;DR - Invest in good quality audio setup with external DAC + AMP + Sound Card + wired headphones from a proper audio brand. Also, before buying anything first check what solution your motherboard's onboard audio has and whether it is enough for your needs. For those with time to read.... I see people discussing CPU and GPUs in this sub-Reddit but everyone seem to overlook one crucial aspect of gaming which is your audio pipeline. After using a plethora of gaming and audiophile headphones & Bluetooth earphones over the past 18 years since I left school, I can wholeheartedly say that if you want to experience good quality gaming audio than invest in good quality "Headphones" and stay away from "Gaming headphones" or wireless headphones. Onboard audio has gotten much better compared to Analog Device chips of the last decade but these onboard audio solutions give a basic DAC built in the chip + basic amplifier. For most users who are using sub ₹ 5,000 headphones with < 32 Ohm impedance and who do not spend time listening with multiple headphones, this is fine as they will never be able to identify the difference. Some high end motherboards by Asus ROG or Strix come with SupremeFX audio which is just a fancy name for high quality DAC + AMP on the motherboard. These are well built solutions and unless you are driving high impedance headphones they should be enough for majority of users. However, not everyone buys such a high end motherboard. If you are serious or want to be serious about audio quality, invest in the following a) Good quality "Headphone" - Get a real, high quality headphone from a company which has been in the audio industry for decades such as Audio Technica or Beyerdynamics or HifiMan depending on your budget and choice of closed or open back headphones. You will be able to clearly differentiate between every chord when listing to music or playing games. Audio equipment last decades if used properly. My sound setup comprises of a SoundBlaster AE 5 + Beyerdynamics DT 990 Premium headphones. I prefer Beyerdynamics because they are built like a tank and every part is replaceable and available for repair which adds to long term sustainability. My Audio setup I used to own an Audio Technica AD500X for 7 years before I shifted to a 250 Ohm Beyerdynamics DT 990 Premium this year and the difference in audio quality is staggering. b) DAC + AMP - There are multiple choices in these. However, keep the following in mind
External DAC + AMP such as Schitt Fulla 3 or others are meant to output high quality Stereo sound. They do not process 3D positional audio at all. However, few games contain their own implementation of virtual surround sound over stereo headphones such as Dolby Atmos support in Overwatch or "Headphone mode" in Doom Eternal so if a game has support for these, use it. For all other games, you should buy Dolby Access from Windows Store. It is worth it.
External DAC + AMP + Sound Card such as Creative Sound BlasterX G1 which is available right now for ₹ 2,999 on Amazon. I have personally used this with my 250 Ohm Beyerdynamic DT 990 and the pairing is perfect for gaming. Not only you get powerful DAC + AMP to drive a 250 Ohm headphone, you also avoid electrical noise and get hardware 3D Audio processing by Creative in games.
When it comes to audio, the industry is like a rabbit hole with a lot of snake oil. You get audio cables costing upwards of ₹ 10,000 with little to no perceivable difference but...there are people who still buy these. Don't fall into this trap. Money does not come for free so always do your research and remember to pay for quality once and you will reap benefits for many years to come. Edit 1 - For those asking, you can watch these videos and increase your knowledge.
I have not used all the products and I do not know how everything is. I can only recommend what I have used. 1. Sound BlasterX G1 - This is an external DAC + AMP + Sound card for your PC which connects via USB. It is not super amazing compared to AudioQuest Dragonfly Red or Schitt Fulla 3, but for non audiophile use this is more than enough as a starting point. Being external means you also avoid electrical interference (that buzzzzzz sound when not playing something on your headphones). I personally use a Sound Blaster AE 5 internal sound card due to personal preference. 2. Beyerdynamics DT 770 - Not something I personally like because I prefer open back headphones but they cost less and they are a good set to start with. You can also try Audio Technica ATH M50x. 3. Beyerdynamics DT 990 Premium - My personal headphone. Premium edition differs from Pro only in terms of cable because sound quality is same in both. Open back design increases the sound stage. 4. JBL Bar 3.1 - I use these in my living room. Edit 2 - For those asking where to buy/experience, you can mail Ashish Chauhan on [email protected]. You can also follow them on Instagram. However, he doesn't deal in headphones so contact him only for speakers or DACs or AMPs.
$BEVVF Bee Vectoring Technology – Eco AgTech company (MC of ~$30M) with patented and working EPA approved product in a $240B addressable market
Hey guys, this is going to be a deep dive. I think I have found a true gem so forgive me if I sound too enthusiastic in this post. As always, this is not financial advice and don’t trust a random dude on the internet with your hard earned cash. So last week I was scrolling through new and saw this fairly short post containing the word bee that was so unusual for this sub that it instantly caught my interest. https://www.reddit.com/trakstocks/comments/l09fjc/bee_vectoring_technologies_bee_canadian_ticker_o After half an hour of DD I bought into it. Let me explain why. The product BVT is a Canadian company aiming to provide an ecofriendly way of crop protection by using bees as a vector for the pesticide utilizing the natural pollination process for inoculation with the pesticide. You can see for yourselves how it works here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC9MTpJ8rRQEH6bXgX1TjYJg As you can see in the picture, the bees carry the pesticide to the crops in their day to day business and all the farmer has to do is tend to the bees and refill the pesticide trays. Tray system for loading the bees with pesticide. And when I say pesticide I’m not talking about those bad agrochemical pesticides but rather a natural endophytic (greek forliving within**) fungus** trademarked BVT-CR7, that protects the plant from harmful pests like Sclerotinia (another fungus, see pic) or Bortytis (also a fungus, see pic). Other active ingredients for vectoring are possible, with Beauveria bassiana (fungus controlling insect pests like aphids or termites), Streptomycin (antibiotic) or Bacillus thuringiensis (bacterium to control insect pests) being considered for application. Sclerotinia fungus on a carrot Botrytis on a strawberry, wine and tomato Some other benefits of BVT–CR7 are, as stated on their website:
Increased nutritional uptake for the plant and accordingly increased plant growth
· More convenient than conventional pesticides that are toxic and have to be brought out by either humans or machines
As BVT-CR7 protects the plant form harmful fungal growth it prolongs shelf life of the crops which is a big plus for retail and distribution.
COMPLETELY ORGANIC. So farmers looking into switching to try it have a huge financial incentive to sell their crop at a premium that comes with the organic label.
The process of vectoring seems to be rather simple. You can watch it here in a short video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kf_jqKRFggQ&feature=emb_logo The bees or bumblebees pick up the fungus on their way out of the hive and inoculate the plants while at the same time pollinating it. As farmers already rent out beehives to ensure maximal pollination of their crops (e.g. one million beehives are rented in Californias Almond season to pollinate almonds in the course of three weeks) there is great potential for synergistic growth of this company interweaving in existing agricultural practices. Eco friendliness/ sustainability A further selling point for me was that many conventional pesticides are neonicotinoids that are suspected to harm bees at a global scale. In 2018 the EU banned three neonictinoids (clothianidin, imidacloprid and thiamethoxam) for outdoor uses. Several states in the US have done so as well and with green politics on the rise I see further restrictions for agricultural chemicals in the future. Also, combatting pests with chemicals creates resistance for pesticides, just as with antibiotics. So using this tech might mean live or death of a farm if resistance for the pesticide grows and threatens their harvest. Things like that have happened already in history, with the Grand Michel banana variety being a famous victim of a fungus that caused the Panama Disease. You can read up on it here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana. (Fun fact: It’s said to be the reason that artificial banana flavourings were derived from the Grand Michel banana. Since nowadays the dominant variety of banana is a different one, artificial banana flavor does not remind us of the new variety). Prospects Since I condisder myself a skeptical person, I emailed one organic farmer who uses BVT and asked him about his opinion on the product. He said he’s very pleased with the results and he’s going to continue using it. While this was only one example, I think customer retention is a very big plus for a new company. Further research lead me to this BBC bit showing a success story for a farmer raising blueberries in Georgia: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LpjB4ZPrZUQ So far BVT claim to be viable for these crops (see image) but I’ve heard one of their officials in an interview state it works for cotton as well, so there could be many more possible crops that could benefit. Crops that can benefit from BVT Here’s an image from their Youtube material showcasing the benefits of the BVT system for strawberries that showed a significant decrease in Botrytis fungus and 26% higher crop yield. So there seems to be huge financial potential for farmers to use their tech with an increase of value of about $3.4k per acre. A quick research lead me to an estimated income of around $21k per acre of strawberries (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiw26np9rfuAhWJ2BQKHUbxAbYQFjADegQICxAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fagsci.oregonstate.edu%2Fsites%2Fagscid7%2Ffiles%2Foaeb%2Fpdf%2FAEB0052.pdf&usg=AOvVaw1PjtphY9a_WZGYWQa85eDH) which amounts to 16% which sounds quite significant. Value delivered by using BVT The market As agricultural pesticides are a $240B market and their current market cap is around $30M there is much room to grow. As far as I can tell their technology is easily scalable. So as farmers get to try out their tech, network effects could lead to huge growth in the coming years. I’m not a big financial guy but rather a scientist but 2020 seemed to be a good year for them in terms of getting closer to becoming profitable: Financials Source: http://www.beevt.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/BVT-FS-JUNE-30-2020-final.pdf In 2021 they plan to generate at least CAD 1M in revenue and expand their marketing to accelerate revenue growth. Last December they received approval for California which is the largest berry market in the US (https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/BEE-VECTORING-TECHNOLOGIE-111208475/news/Bee-Vectoring-Technologies-Completes-California-Approval-Review-Process-Gaining-Access-to-Biggest-C-32065612/). So 2021 could be a good year to increase their revenue. My resume I think this won’t be an overnight success as agriculture works in seasons and farmers have to try things out to be convinced. As we say in Germany (paraphrased): The farmer doesn’t eat, what he doesn’t know. So don’t expect to walk away with a 10x in a week’s time. But I think the shift to green technologies will inadvertently lead to at least some adaptation of this tech. So if you’re ready to wait 2-3 years, this is definitely worth looking into. There is no need to FOMO and jump in right away because I think this will be an organically (Ha!) growing (Ha!) stock over time as the revenues of this green baby grow. Let me know what you think about this company! Additional info for personal DD Their website: beevt.com Here’s an interview with the CEO that I can recommend where the interviewer asked some tough questions: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aY-NTShBdcw The CEO Ashish Malik has worked for Syngenta and BAYER Cropscience for 19 years so he should have the knowledge and industry connections to get this company going. In 2012 he lead the AgTech company AgraQuest that had a revenue of $16M at the time to a buyout by Bayer Cropscience for $425M. Here’s another article form NBC about the company: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/bees-will-be-used-deliver-new-organic-pesticide-will-it-n1054416 From the article: John Swanson, who runs a sunflower, soybean, corn and wheat farm with his son in northern Minnesota, has been experimenting with CR7 for the past three years as he worked with BVT to carry out trials. “Most farmers are very concerned about using products that can hurt the environment,” he said. “Bees are important to the sunflower crop. I have worked with seed production for about 40 years, and bees are the only pollinator for hybrid sunflower seed production." He said one of the main challenges to sunflower crops is a fungi called sclerotia. “This fungicide suppresses sclerotia by about 40 percent," he said. "It’s the best product I’ve seen so far.” TL;DR: Bees carry organic pesticide to plants increasing yields and lowering cost ($$$) Organic approved ($$$) $240B addressable market ($$$) Reduces pesticide load on environment (<3)
Alright. Hear me out autists. We all know bears are gay. But with TSLA shares reaching an ATH of $816.99, it sure seems like its fundamentals are completely divorced from reality. And the media analysts have been pounding on TSLA for seemingly years now. So is this a good company to be a gay bear on? Or Nah? (edit: TSLA ATH now @ $884 lol)
On 7 Jan 2020, Royal Bank of Canada admitted that "There is no graceful way to put this other than to say we got TSLA's stock completely wrong" and upgraded TSLA from $339 to $700. And on 6 Jan 2020, Morgan Stanley upgraded their TSLA price target to $810 when just 18 months ago they announced their comically low price target of $10 (that's $2 post split) resulting in a massive rally. Did Morgan Stanley dive head first into WSB level 3 autism territory, or is there something that the uninitiated could be missing? Let's do a deep dive into Tesla the company and see if their stock really is in a bubble, or if there could be some substance behind the current insane rally.
The common FUD narrative among TSLAQ is that TSLA's $800+ billion market cap is now larger than the 10 largest auto manufacturers combined. (edit: Apparantly this is a common FUD talking point that is/was false. TSLA is/was nowhere near that level when it was touted around as so. Although it is undeniable that Tesla's market cap became more and more absurd throughout 2020)
Indeed, this is quite insane. Even without us autists doing complex calculations, a simple google search shows that they would have to sell around 65 million vehicles a year to be priced at that level. So how many vehicles did Tesla produce? Tesla announced on 2 January 2020 that they've sold a little shy of 500K vehicles for CY 2020 with plans to increase production by 50% YoY. This would ultimately bring them to 20 million vehicles produced by 2030.
20 mil by 2030. Although we all know the term "Elon Time", which refers to CEO Elon Musk casually announcing an estimate of a product and missing projected timelines by large margins, there seems to be some credibility to this statement. Back in 2014, Elon Musk gave an interview (2:28) where he stated "I feel comfortable that we'll be able to achieve at least half a million cars a year by 2020".
OK. So let's give him the benefit of the doubt. As a matter of fact, Tesla is actually building factories at breakneck speeds with construction literally running 24/7 and each of their large factories (Austin and Berlin) is said to be capable of producing up to 2 million vehicles a year. Giga Berlin which was an empty field 9 months ago is already close to finishing its outer construction layer. Obviously they plan to announce more factory constructions in the future as well. So they do seem to be on track to grow on average 50% YoY for now. But 20 million cars produced by 2030 is still massively shy of 65 million vehicles. Even with growth factored in, TSLA's stock valuation still seems insanely high. So what gives? The common explanation among the Tesla fanboys is that TSLA is a tech company, not an automotive company, so it should be valued just so.
So what is this mystical technology the fanboys speak of, and how is it being deployed in terms of profitability for Tesla? Well, it turns out that Tesla has three main technological advantages and two main revenue streams that might put them leaps and bounds ahead of competitors.
Autonomous Driving - Tesla is the current market leader in vehicle autonomy. It has over 3 billion miles logged as of April 2020. The next industry leader Waymo (owned by google) has approximately 20 million miles logged. One thing for sure is that no company will be able to catch Tesla in terms of pure data advantage within the next 4-5 years. And when it comes to Artificial Intelligence, data is king. This could be the bread and butter of Tesla. Tesla already charges customers $10k per vehicle to enable full self driving in which 25% of their customers choose the option. However, Tesla hasn't taken full profits on their books yet due to it still being in beta mode. Once they solve autonomy, an over-the-air (OTA) software update will be sent out just like how your iPhone updates and bam! now you have a self driving vehicle. Let's say Tesla charges $2k a year for a self driving vehicle that can also function as an autonomous uber driver which will help you pay down your vehicle or self driving subscription service. That's like selling two iPhone pros per every customer every year. And customers on their robotaxi network will also have to share 20% profits with Tesla. Think about this. The highest cost of ride hailing are for hourly wages. If no human is required to drive that vehicle, the cost of the ride hailing service will become insanely cheap. So cheap to the point that many people who live in cities will feel like they no longer need to own a vehicle and just call a robo taxi. People already do this in large cities! As this process accelerates, vehicles that don't have autonomy solved will lose market share dramatically every year. People who want cars will mainly want to buy a vehicle with an autonomous option, and people who don't care about owning a car will use robo taxis. If Tesla solves autonomy 4-5 years ahead of competitors, the entire auto industry will be disrupted by Tesla just like how the iPhone ended Blackberry and Nokia's dominance.
Vehicle Manufacturing - Tesla is an innovator when it comes to vehicle manufacturing technology, specifically robotics. Along with their insane factory automation process, they also have giga casters that mold car pieces quickly and efficiently that no other manufacturers have, and giant automated paint shops. This cuts down massively on labor and allows for quicker production while keeping margins high. Due to innovative technologies like these, it is estimated that Tesla's Shanghai Model 3 vehicles net around 30% profit margins, even after they've recently slashed their prices by 8%. Tesla recently slashed their Model Y price by 30% but still boast an astonishing 29% profit margin which is approximately 3 times the industry average. So even if robotaxi doesn't work out, they are still an industry leader by a large stretch in terms of profit margins. These margins will only increase after Giga Berlin is operational due to no longer having to ship vehicles across the Pacific to European customers.
Vertical Integration - Tesla is well known for its vertical integration. This is mainly due to having supply chain issues in the early days, but what this has enabled is agile production capability and larger profit margins. Due to this capability, Tesla improves components of their vehicles on the fly instead of the annual model release the traditional industry uses. Also, they don't have to share profits with suppliers or worry about constraints, delivery delays, or slow progress on contracts.
No Advertising & Dealerships - Elon Musk is a walking billboard. The media literally gives Tesla free advertisement every day. As production increases, Tesla might have to start advertising in the future. But for now it seems like Teslas are selling themselves. Tesla has literally sold 100% of the vehicles they've ever produced, and they have never advertised any of their vehicles. Also, they do not have to share profits with dealerships with direct-to-consumer sales. If their market dominance and technology superiority continues, it is bound to stay the industry leader just like apple did with its iPhones. And if they solve autonomy first which they seem on track to do so, what's more to say?
Regulatory Credits AKA Carbon Credits - This is one that TSLAQs love to bring up when it comes to Tesla profits. You see, a handful of US States enacted a law that requires manufacturers to sell a certain percentage of Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEV) in their state which will earn them ZEV credits. If not, they will either have to pay a massive penalty fine, or buy ZEV credits from vehicle manufacturers who have plenty to spare. And Tesla has an overflow of ZEV credits laying around. So Tesla is literally getting paid by other vehicle manufacturers to build their vehicles. TSLAQs (incorrectly) state that the only reason Tesla makes a profit is because of regulatory credits. However, Tesla's ZEV credits only make up around 5% of their revenue (page 4, row 3) and it is slowly falling. No serious vehicle manufacturer will likely produce ICE vehicles in the year 2030 so ZEV credits fazing out is to be expected. Tesla vehicles are massively profitable as mentioned in bullet #2 even without the ZEV credits.
So we went over the main revenue streams of Tesla. And if all works out well, it seems likely that Tesla has a good chance of 'winning' if they maintain their market leadership. However, the competition is coming, right? We have our favorite EV players such as Nio, XPeng, Li, Rivian, BYD etc. Also the traditional ICE manufacturers VolksWagen has their ID.4, Ford has thier Mustang Mach-E, Audi has thier etron, Porche has their Tycan, and GM has the Chevy Bolt and 30 EVs planned for the future. It seems inevitable that these industry giants with their massive resources will overtake Tesla. Or will they?
Why the Competition is NOT Coming (Tesla's Moats):
Difficulties of creating an EV vs. Mass Production: Creating a shell of an EV or a prototype is extremely easy. If anything, Nikola has showed this to be true. Rivian seems to be having the same issue Tesla had when starting up where they had to constantly push back release dates due to how difficult it is to engineer and manufacture an EV. So designing a prototype is easy. Manufacturing an EV is another thing. But mass production is a whole different beast. It took Tesla well over 16 years to perfect their technology and mass produce their model 3 despite having the best engineers in the world working for them. Ever wonder why every single vehicle manufacturer has constantly been pushing back their EV production timelines? It's because EVs are difficult. Also to note is that no vehicle manufacturer other than Tesla has been able to achieve mass production in EVs. And until then, Tesla has no competition in the near horizon.
Supercharger network: Tesla has the largest charging network in the world by orders of magnitude and they will continue to grow. VW is a low trailing second in the market due to penalties in their dieselgate scandel and as a lucky maneuver, decided to build their electrify-america charging network. BTW, due to sunk costs, VW will likely be the only traditional ICE manufacturer that stands a chance of survival in the long run. Tesla owners barely get range anxiety like they used to back in the day. This is because it is easy to find a charging station even if they are going on a long trip with their map integration. However, you cannot say the same for the other EVs.
Lidar vs. Camera: Tesla's vehicles notoriously does not use lidar technology. Instead, they almost only rely on vision (cameras). There are three main reasons for this. (I.) Cameras are extremely cheap. Lidar is not. One of Waymo's vehicles are estimated to have cost over $250k back in a 2017 estimate. Although in recent years Waymo seems to have developed lidar hardware that costs 90% less at $7.5k, it is still ridiculously expensive compared to cameras without adding much value. Here is Elon Musk's explanation, massively paraphrased: "Cameras augmented with AI can do almost all the things that lidar does chiefly depth sensing. Human vision does not require a separate depth sensor, and the entire driving infrastructure is built with human vision in mind. Lidar is a fools errand." Instead, Tesla augments its self driving technology with radar and maps. (II.) Lidar technology is usually augmented with something called HD maps. This is extreme detailed mapping (to the centimeter level) that helps lidar depth sensors with navigation. However, the issue with HD maps is that the file sizes are obviously large. And when detailed maps need to be updated due to construction or whatever which happens everywhere, every day, an OTA update needs to be sent out. And how do you update a fleet of all your vehicles when nationwide full coverage of 5G isn't a thing? So vehicles like Waymos are extremely good at driving within their geo-fenced locations, until they leave the area. And then they are absolute crap at it. OTOH, vision-based self driving vehicles are initially bad at the task until they have sufficient data and then they can drive well in almost every situation even without it being connected to the network. (III.) Vision-focused self driving AI can be augmented with additional sensors such as radalidar afterwards, but the inverse does not work. To put it short, if your lidar sensors disagree on the information they see at the moment, its entire system cannot function.
Misdirected Competition: Remember how we talked about ZEV credits? Well most ICE vehicle manufacturers only sell their vehicles in ZEV mandated states and nowhere else. They literally lose money when they sell their vehicles, or have to massively hike up their prices to make a profit even with tax credits, unlike Teslas. For this reason, they only make enough vehicles to make up for their ZEV credits. Naturally, one can assume the limits of effort gone into such vehicles. Now, let's talk about the EV start ups. I've already mentioned the massive growing pains they will have to reach mass production. However, the Chinese EV startups have one thing to their advantage - massive 5G infrastructure within China which will undoubtedly benefit automation, especially in the case of HD maps. However, this doesn't apply outside of China. To add to this, they do not produce in-house custom AI chipsets which is a massive hinderance in processing data. Tesla did this with Nvidia for a while and ultimately decided that they had to design their own chips because of the lackluster performance.
OTA Software Updates - A minor point, but Tesla has been designing their own software for years now. Well known to the public, Teslas update very frequently and with each update gets slightly better UI and performance. Yes - a software update allows Teslas to get better efficiency out of their vehicles. One can argue that any auto manufacturer can implement OTA software updates, but Tesla is leagues ahead at the moment with top notch software developers.
Talent Pool: Guess what the #1 company engineers want to work for is? That's right. Tesla. #2 is SpaceX. Try all they want, but the best engineers aren't going to want to work with Ford or GM.
"The Competition": I already mentioned the half-assedness of traditional ICE vehicle manufacturers but I wanted to bring up another point. One thing that traditional ICE manufacturers have weighing them down are their employees. Their ICE engineers don't translate well into a totally different EV drivetrain. There are sunk costs (equipment etc) that deal with ICE manufacturing processes. Also, Ford, GM, and VW all have unions, pension funds, and stockholders. What do you think their reaction will be when they decide to ditch the currently-profitable-but-soon-to-be-shrinking ICE vehicle component and transition into resource intensive EVs? That's right. They won't like it. The only solution is to half-ass it and slowly transition into EVs while trying to keep afloat their ICE vehicle component. With massive product line diversification and lack of focus, this is not going to be an easy transition. VW CEO Herbert Diess famously stated that "My goal for the future is clear: leading the Group into a sustainable and successful future. The global transformation in the industry will take roughly ten years, with or without Volkswagen." and tried to convince board members basically stating that VW will need to transition into EVs within 10 years or go bankrupt. Ultimately, Diess wasn't successful in achieving full cooperation of the board and had to compromise in his goals to a more gradual transition. The competition is NOT coming. Oh, and as for Waymo and Uber? Well Uber recently sold off their self-driving startup, and Waymo sunk a jaw dropping $3.5 billion for their operation. LOL. They are paying drivers to monitor their expensive "autonomous vehicles" while Tesla gets this done while making a profit. As of 2020, Waymo still only has 600 vehicles and has never left the bounds of Pheonix, AZ.
OK. So I'm sure I've missed some points but I think this paints a decent picture on why Tesla is considered the one and only market leader at the moment. Now let's go into...
Tesla's Disruptive Potentials:
The $25,000 EV: In Tesla's battery day announcement, Tesla projected that their battery technology will enable them to build a $25k vehicle in the future. According to projections using Wright's law, this seems to be plausible. Most think this will happen around 2023-4. Think of the disruption this will bring. EVs are well known for having lower maintenance cost vs. ICE vehicles due to not having as many moving parts. The true cost of ownership for a $25k vehicle will be vastly superior to a $20k ICE vehicle. Once this happens, ICE vehicle demand will fall through the roof. The only ICE vehicles being sold at high volume will be used vehicles. What happens to the traditional ICE manufacturers then? Tesla vehicles are already perceived to hold their value much better than other brands because of the overall feature it comes with.
Tesla Auto Insurance: Tesla collects massive amounts of data. They can easily profile their customers' driving patterns, check if they have self driving enabled, the route they drive etc. Currently Tesla vehicles are insured at a much higher premium vs. economic ICE vehicles. Once Tesla goes fully into the insurance business, traditional insurance companies will not be able to compete with them on price or margins. This is because the insurance business is based upon data on the customer and projections.
Solar City - Tesla's other business deals with solar panels, Tesla power walls, and their Autobidder software which sells the electricity that you generated back to the grid. Tesla currently offers the lowest solar panel price in the U.S. and moreover, takes 20% of the revenue generated from their autobidder software. Renewable energy is poised to grow. More than 50% annually is the current projection. And Tesla seems to be one of the industry leaders in this market as well.
Risks:
Failing autonomous driving: definitely a major risk as the current stock price is largely betting on this single technology to materialize. However, their current progress and the rate of improvement after rewriting their autopilot code seems promising.
Failing mass battery production (battery supply issues): Although Tesla is the largest producer of batteries in the world, they will need to produce more if they want to keep up with the current pace of expansion. This will be a major bottleneck for Tesla if they cannot solve this issue. As a solution, Tesla has reduced their reliance on copper and are said to be producing batteries with little to no copper. We shall see how this pans out.
Tesla is infamous for its poor Quality Control on their vehicles and slow/poor Customer Service. We shall see if time solves this issue.
Lack of Tax Incentives: Tesla's vehicles no longer provide Federal tax incentives to U.S. customers. However, they seem to be doing fine with over 80% EV marketshare in the U.S. alone. They're stealing market share from BMW, VW, Acura... you name it.
Elon Musk Death: Elon Musk has been able to achieve amazing engineering feats. If he dies, I'm sure a lot of the company's potential will go with it.
Alternative Battery Technology:
Solid State Battery - Quantumscape which is currently the leader in this sector has plans to enter mass production by 2024. We shall see if their battery technology turns out to be as efficient as Tesla's. If QS's SS batteries turn out to be superior to Tesla's, they might have to start purchasing from them.
Hydrogen Fuel Cell (HFC) Battery - Likely not a good use for vehicles. Very low efficiency and wasteful vs lithium-ion batteries. Currently no infrastructure for HFC in place. Might be useful for freight shipping. Elon Musk famously stated that HFC's are "Fool Cells"
Tesla Future Products Lines:
Cybertruck: Insane profit margins, amazing performance. estimated production end of 2021 or 2022
Semi Truck: estimated production 2022 or later
Model S Refresh: Insane specs. Likely release is 2021
2020 Roadster: Insane specs but surprise! The "2020 Roadster" renewal never happened and most are projecting 2022 or later
$25k EV: 'nuff said
TSLA Analysis:
TSLA Institutional Ownership: 62.85% TSLA Insider Ownership: 5.21% TSLA Fanboy Ownership: estimated 5%+ So there is a stable 70%+ of ownership that will not/cannot sell this stock, unlike PLTR which has only 12% institutional ownership and 63% insider ownership. This is the reason why I think the stock won't drop tremendously even when it tanks. There are plenty of people who are willing to snatch up more shares at a discount.
Why did TSLA shoot up so quickly in 2020: This is my personal opinion, but TSLA fans are known for doing deep research into the company. In the early days this was in forums such as the Tesla Motors Club where they shared their own research on revenue, projections, and potentials. Now we have YouTube and information dissemination has gotten easier. Interest in investing has skyrocketed in 2020. Stock market trading GLOBALLY has gotten easier via smartphone with apps such as Robinhood and the prosperity of the American stock market has no doubt attracted global retail investors. For years, Tesla's stock has been pushed down by FUD analysts. Paid by big oil and traditional ICE manufacturers? Or really that dumb not to do any DD and spread completely false information on a company that you are massively shorting. We might never find out. Retailers have caught onto Tesla's potential ahead of analysts this time. And as in Morgan Stanley and RBC's case, analysts have just been catching up on the future potential of Tesla to not make a further fool of themselves.
Future scenarios and Personal Opinion: Currently, Tesla holds over 18% of the global EV marketshare. As more EV players come into space, it might seem like Tesla is in danger of losing marketshare. Not everyone wants a Tesla and that is understandable. But as the overall pie is growing, Tesla, with their 50% YoY production increase plans (which is exponential growth), will likely remain a market leader sustaining their current 18% market share even in 2030 just like how the iPhone did. This is, of course, if they can keep up their growth.
Even if TSLA fails to develop their robo-taxi network technology, their full self driving subscription seems highly likely to materialize at the current pace albeit a lower revenue model.
Ultimately, do I think the current stock price is a bubble? Fuck yes I do, maybe by up to 20%. I'm not buying any more TSLA shares anywhere near this price. My FOMO was back when the stock price was $415 after doing my DD and this was with the intention to buy more shares even if the stock bottomed out. Well, it never bottomed because the S&P inclusion was announced shortly after I purchased it.
But if you ask my personal opinion, you gotta be a "buy high sell low" type top level autist if you're looking for short term gains and purchasing at this level. I'm looking at long term, slow moving, dead ass boring, Bitcoin HODLing, Warren Buffet style "time in market beats timing the market" boomer gains here. My next purchase will be whenever the stock price, if ever, bottoms out. However, just because I think TSLA is overpriced doesn't mean that I'm shorting this stock either.
Amazon was notoriously non-profitable or barely profitable until 2015 because they were reinvesting their profits into expansion. That is what Tesla is doing right now. Remember all the analysts who continuously warned investors for over a decade to stay away from AMZN because they are unprofitable? Well, I don't see any sane analysts parroting that narrative anymore. And then its stock price shot to the moon after they enabled profit mode. It's stock price nearly doubled due to the pandemic and I'm still not planning on shorting this stock even though the pandemic will likely go away in less than a year.
I don't know how TSLA will do in the short term. Nonetheless, I do believe that Tesla has the best chance among any auto maker out there to reach a $2-10+ trillion valuation within 10 years. So I'm just going to lean back and enjoy the show.
TL;DR: Tesla HAS NO COMPETITION. This is as if android wasn't developed until 4 years after the iPhone was released. Do NOT short or buy puts on TSLA. Although the current run seems absolutely insane, there is some substance to hold it up and possibly keep shooting up higher
Positions: TSLA shares @ $415 and a bunch more with an average price of $518. No calls because my wife's boyfriend did not permit.
Back of the Napkin Calculations
Warning: These are literally back of the napkin, pure crack fantasy calculations based on four factors:
Tesla will be able to increase production by 50% YoY until 2030 without fall in demand or issues scaling. As a side note, Toyota sells 10.5 million vehicles in a year so only time will tell if Tesla is able to sell 20 million vehicles a year.
ZEV credits will gradually diminish due to manufacturers switching to EVs.
Tesla will solve level 3 autonomy by 2022 and will charge customers $1k/yr. Tesla will have level 5 autonomy by 2026 and launch its robotaxi network by 2027 which it will then charge customers $2k/yr.
The robotaxi revenue is from the 20% profit sharing Tesla plans to do, but as far as the numbers go, I straight up pulled it out of my ass while referencing Uber's revenue and fudging numbers.
Year
Vehicles Produced
Vehicle Sales Revenue
ZEV Credits
Full Self Driving Revenue
Robotaxi Revenue
Total Revenue (Vehicle Related)
Notes
2019
367k
20.2 B
0.6 B
0.36 B (est)
21.6 B (est)
FSD early access (cost $8k, 1 time fee)
2020
500k
23.9 B (est)
1.5 B (est)
0.6 B (est)
26 B (est)
FSD early access (cost $10k, 1 time fee)
2021
750k
35.8 B
1.3 B
0.9 B (est)
38 B (est)
FSD at Level 2.5
2022
1.1 mil
53.7 B
1 B
1 B+
55.7 B
FSD at Level 3 (FSD subscription service - lower pricing model @ $1k/y)
2023
1.7 mil
80.6 B
0.7 B
2.7 B+
84 B
2024
2.5 mil
120 B
0.4 B
5.2 B+
125.6 B
FSD at Level 4
2025
3.8 mil
181 B
0.1 B
9 B+
190.1 B
2026
5.7 mil
272 B
-
13.7 B+
285.7 B
FSD at Level 5
2027
8.5 mil
408 B
-
30 B+
1 B
439 B
Robotaxi Launch (FSD subscription service @ 2k/y)
2028
12.8 mil
612 B
-
55 B+
5 B
672 B
2029
19 mil
918 B
-
93 B+
13 B
1 T
2030
20 mil
1 T
-
130 B+
20 B+
1.1 T
As you can see, I omitted R&D expenses, operating expenses etc., and haven't even attempted to calculate their net profit or factor in that Tesla's revenue might drop due to introducing cheaper variants. But this back of the napkin, crack infused revenue model shows that Tesla's potential can be gigantic. This is even without its other businesses like Solar City or Tesla insurance etc. Please... don't reference this anywhere because it is dumb math and I likely made some huge errors lol.
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