The best laid PLANs of mice and men often go awry.
Welcome back to another effortpost by me generally on the developing arms race in East Asia, this time covering the People's Liberation Army Navy, hereafter referred to as the "PLAN", and its massive growth... and... mostly, well, its massive growth. What that means is mostly covered in other posts about how other countries are responding to it. The why is a bit difficult because, well, China is not well known for open debate, or open anything, really, which will turn up repeatedly.
- What you [might] need to know about South Korea's ludicrous arms buildup
- We shall fight on the seas and oceans, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be. We shall fight on the beaches.... uh, what do we do after that again?: The Perilous Defensive Position of Taiwan
- "You've hit another cargo ship? The Problems with the US Navy: Not all of them begin with "Seven" and end with "th Fleet"."
- Will China's PLAN survive contact with the enemy?
- Biden's New START and modern nuclear war
- First And Last Stand Of The Tin Can Navies [ASEAN + Australia and the smaller adversaries China may contend with]
- Boned: Problems in the US Air [and space!] Force
- --Unnamed-- effortpost on Japanese military matters, mostly about how weird the JSDF status is
- --Unnamed--effortpost on Indian military matters, and why they can't focus on China or buy anything that works
- --Unnamed--effortpost on the rest of the PLA, mostly the air force though
- --Unnamed--effortpost on the rest of the US Armed Forces, mostly talking about how the marines are changing and the Army's new love affair with INF-busting weapons
- Conclusion?
Glossary: PLA = People's Liberation Army = the armed forces of the People's Republic of China, or China
PLAN = People's Liberation Army Navy = the naval forces of the PLA
PLANAF = People's Liberation Army Navy Air Force = the air force of the navy of the PLA
Ashm = Anti-ship missile, cruise missile unless specifically described as otherwise--there's only one anti-ship ballistic missile in existence and its efficacy and whether or not it functions is questionable
CIWS = close-in weapons system, like the Phalanx gun or Goalkeeper
VLS = vertical launch system for missiles
AEGIS = Aegis Combat System if described specifically in that context, a US naval warfare system, but we'll usually be talking about "Chinese AEGIS", which is a nomiker used by the Chinese media in particular comparing the Type 346 radar to the AN-SPY family, with which it shares numerous technical characteristics--but how comparable the "Chinese AEGIS" system is to what the US uses is a complete unknown.
SAM = Surface-to-air missile, in this case usually a S-300 derivative
First Island Chain = The islands, stretching from Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Japan, which keep China inside its littoral seas much as the GIUK [Greenland-Iceland-UK] gap has kept various continental powers out of the Atlantic.
Some PLAN equipment you might see described--the nomenclature is confusing and a relic of the cultural revolution, and as a result China now has more Types than the British.
Type 003 = China's new conventionally powered supercarriers, currently under construction
Type 002 = China's first truly "operational" carrier
Type 001 = China's first carrier, built on a Soviet hull purchased from Ukraine ostensibly to make a floating casino
Type 055 = Guided-missile cruiser, though generally called a destroyer it's probably more descriptively labeled a cruiser
Type 052D = Guided-missile destroyer using "Chinese AEGIS"
Type 052/051B/052B/052C = the gradual progression of evolving Chinese naval tech, largely built as practice/demo ships like the Type 001. Some of the earlier ones are steam-powered but by the Type 052C you have something almost as advanced as the Type 052D, albeit with turbine problems
Type 054A = the standard modern frigate of the PLAN
Type 053[anything] = old PLAN frigates
Type 096 = China's newest SSBN class, under construction
Type 094 = China's first functional SSBN class, very noisy
Type 092 = China's first "SSBN", believed to have never left port with an actual nuke on board
Type 095 = China's newest SSN class, under construction
Type 093 = China's current SSN class, noisy
Type 091 = China's first SSN class, dumb dumb dumb and is at a 1950s tech level
Type 039[A] = China's new SSK class
Kilo = China's older SSK class, imported from Russia
Sovremenny = China's first capable anti-air destroyers, imported from Russia
1. The Last Time A Rising Navy Challenged A Dominant Foe
The last time we've seen something like this was in the late 19th century. After the First World War shipbuilding was restricted by the landmark Washington Naval Treaty, one of the first great arms control treaties, and during the Cold War the Soviet Union never really had any hopes of surpassing American naval power. China, however, seems intent on replacing the US as the world's dominant naval power, or at least building a force that can stop the US Navy, even combined with the forces of Japan and other regional allies.
The nations in question, of course, in the last naval arms race, were the United Kingdom and a newly-unified Germany. Germany never reached the level of the UK, but seriously threatened it. Previously the UK had maintained a policy of having more ships than the next two largest fleets combined, but this was no longer possible, and the UK legitimately was fearful for its naval supremacy. It didn't last too long in the end--under a decade--and a resumption was foiled by first a world war and then the Washington Naval Treaty. The impact of the arms race, though, was massive. It set Germany and the UK at odds with each other, it resulted in a general buildup of warships pretty much everywhere [South America was, believe it or not, one of the biggest offenders there], established Germany for a time as the world's second naval power, having eclipsed both France and Russia and turning a small coastal defense navy into something that was able to defeat the Royal Navy itself, though never comprehensively enough to change the course of the first world war.
China dwells in a much different situation than Germany did at the turn of the last century, so we can only extend the analogy so far--substituting in Japan for the UK, India for Russia, and so on is possible but not, in my view, educational. However, we can see many of the same elements playing in here. China seems intent on replacing the US as a dominant power, or at least as regional hegemon--the ancient tributary system seems to lie fairly heavily on Chinese minds--and in order to do that, it must be able to have some degree of power projection and the capability to deny the US Navy access to areas within the first island chain. It remains to be seen, however, how successful that quest will be. Much as with the dreadnought battleships, I wouldn't be surprised if we never actually do find out if most of the shiny naval toys people have built actually work. But their mere existence shows the mutual hostility developing in the region and demonstrates the size of the Chinese threat.
Another lesson learned here is that China, like Germany, may not develop a naval force capable of defeating the US comprehensively, but only partially, and that one of the powers--in this case, China--might be pressured to strike first before the US Navy can close the gap. That ~2030 gap I talked about in my last post is, I think, an especially vulnerable point, because China may look at a degraded, but rejuvenating US Navy, then at their own capable forces, and decide to strike then in Taiwan and the South China Sea, only to back down when the US Navy again eclipses them. Whether or not that will happen, we will see--but I find it a very dangerous and perhaps likely possibility.
2. What the PLAN looked like 20 years ago
The PLAN has undergone an absolutely stunning evolution in the past two decades. In the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis the US could intimidate China with a pair of aircraft carrier strike groups and China could do pretty much nothing about it. Now the US is afraid of sending anything more than a destroyer through the strait.
Twenty years ago, the PLAN was a bit of a joke. Even Taiwan figured it could hold the seas against the PLAN. It consisted of a few tens of outdated coastal-defense frigates, some Soviet-era diesel-electric subs, and a large number of unsophisticated missile craft. The pride of the Chinese fleet were a handful of destroyers assembled using cobbled-together Western technology--copied French missiles, American gas turbines, the lot. According to American accounts at the time, the instructions for the equipment hadn't even been translated. The most advanced ship in the fleet used steampower. There were nuclear submarines, but of 1950s quality. Of particular note was the fact that the Chinese fleet had
no area air defense capabilities--their premier surface-to-air-missile was an unlicensed knockoff of the French Crotale, and couldn't shoot anything outside of visual range, at high altitudes, or really doing anything more sophisticated than trying to kill their ships with low-altitude dumb bombing runs.
In the past twenty years, however, the PLAN has, much like the German Navy towards the end of the 19th century, gone from an afterthought to the world's second most powerful force. It began, as modern China's military capabilities almost all began, with the looting of the former Soviet Union for naval technology. While Soviet naval tech was generally lacking, it was much better than anything else China could get its hands on after the arms embargo placed on it in the 1990s by the US and Europe in response to Tienanmen and the end of the Cold War. China bought Soviet diesel submarines, Soviet air-defense destroyers, and Soviet aircraft carriers, which it promptly left lying around [and turned one of them into a theme park]. This was combined with copies of various pieces of Western, mostly European, technology for everything from sonars to surface-to-air missiles. China then began developing its first modern indigenous surface combatants, the Type 052C, but there were still problems. The engines were Ukrainian and had reliability trouble, the gun jammed, there was no VLS.
It is really in the last ten years that things have begun to move extremely quickly, and even only in the latter portion of the decade. In 2012 the Type 001
Liaoning entered service, and although it remains more of a training ship than an operational vessel, and is held back by a poor carrier aircraft, the mere fact that China "built" a carrier was a surprise to many. In 2014 the first Type 052D destroyer came online. It had learned the lessons from the Type 052C, and in just the last six years at least ten have entered service, with a class size of about 23 expected. This rapid expansion is what has frightened competing navies the most--in a little over a decade, the PLAN is constructing more destroyers than the British, French, and Australian navies have in service combined. It is also building the Type 055, which has generally been called a "destroyer" despite being more aptly described as a cruiser in line with the Ticonderoga-class. China has also built 30 modern frigates in the past decade, which has also swelled its numbers, along with numerous smaller corvettes, submarines, and so on.
This is why the PLAN has become such an object of concern. While it cannot challenge the US Navy yet, at least outside its littoral zones, the decline of the USN and rapid expansion of the PLAN means that it is a serious threat. And the speed at which it has developed has made many fearful. As recently as 2010, the idea of China operating an aircraft carrier or modern destroyers seemed distant, possibly preposterous. Now China speaks openly of having a six-carrier fleet in the 2030s, although, as with many of China's plans to operate full US-replicated tech and doctrine, these may have somewhat caved to realism. China is mighty, but it has already done the easy part--the last part is much harder, in economics and in military matters. Building the software, the institutional knowledge, the hardware to compete with the US Navy will prove difficult.
3. What the PLAN looks like now--submarines
Submarines are one of the PLAN's weak spots, particularly nuclear submarines. China is, however, making some fairly rapid advances in this area.
Their nuclear submarine program has been considered a bit of a joke for some time. In the late 1950s when all the cool
kids great powers were getting nuclear submarines, China decided [or at least Mao did] that China needed nuclear submarines too. About
16 years later, the product of this effort finally emerged as the Type 091 submarine. Based on 1950s technology, with poor radiation shielding and basically nothing done in the name of noise reduction, and not even a teardrop hull, the Type 091 was probably more of a threat to the sailors who were on it than anyone else, except maybe the two Tench-class submarines that Taiwan operates, which use 1940s technology and are the world's longest-serving submarines, though they're mostly used for training nowadays. Even then, my money would be on the Tench despite the upgrades the PLAN has made to the Type 091. There's only so much you can do to put lipstick on a pig.
China also produced an SSBN, the Type 092, which was probably the only submarine more useless than the Type 091. About the only useful thing it did for the PLAN was that it served as a test platform for SLBM launches. Reports suggest that the Type 092 is the noisiest SSBN ever made, and is thought to have only ever undertaken a single patrol. It stayed at port for so long that it was thought to have sunk in an accident. And the experience turned the PLAN off from building SSBNs for over twenty years, until the Type 094 came online in 2007.
More recent submarines are growing in capability, though. The Type 094
is not the noisiest SSBN ever made, and may not even be the noisiest in current service--that honor going to the Delta III operated by the Russian Navy, which uses 1970s technology, and, which, according to the US Office of Naval Intelligence, is about as noisy as the Type 094. The Type 093 is also moderately capable--it actually functions and can fire anti-ship missiles. However, the Type 093 is still considered only comparable to the Soviet Victor III class, again using 1970s technology. Future submarines have not yet been seen, but expectations are that China will make another step forward to late 1980s or early 1990s tech levels, producing something on par with the Los Angeles or Akula for the first time.
China also operates a fairly capable fleet of coastal diesel-electric submarines. While some are quite old--the Type 035--most are pretty average for the global submarine force, a mix of Kilos and domestic AIP designs. The large number of boats in operation and their anti-ship missile capability means that these should be considered a real threat, at least in the littoral waters near to China, but they aren't decisive by any means, especially since China is facing off against such threats as Japan's
Soryu class, probably the most advanced diesel-electric sub in existence.
In conclusion, the PLAN is still pretty weak on the submarine front--weaker here than on anything but its carrier force, but its capabilities are advancing rapidly and should not be underestimated.
4. What the PLAN looks like now--surface combatants
The surface fleet is definitely the most impressive and capable portion of the PLAN, no questions about it. China once had a fleet consisting mostly of coastal frigates and missile boats. As recently as 2000, its fleet had no real area-air-defense destroyers, and no SAMs that could operate outside visual range. Now, though, the PLAN operates tens of advanced guided-missile destroyers, advanced frigates, and still retains a large number of small, stealthy missile boats.
The major focus of Chinese warships appears to be on anti-air, with anti-surface being a somewhat secondary concern for all but the smallest vessels. This makes sense when you realize that the primary focus is, at least for the moment, on using land-based aircraft to strike against hostile fleet formations using long-range anti-ship missiles, in a very Soviet sort of way--"Backfire raids" using long-range land-based aircraft with anti-ship missiles were one of the US Navy's major concerns during the Cold War, and the very reason for the F-14's existence along with the AIM-54 Phoenix it carried. However, China has been developing anti-surface capabilities as well using ashms and land-attack cruise missiles [generally the same thing, actually]. Since China has finally developed a VLS system that allows it to use the same launcher for multiple missiles, its most recent ships have become more versatile in that role.
How effective these ships are at that task is, however, a relatively open question. Their radars at least seem to quite sophisticated, using flat-panel AESA, and have been dubbed "Chinese AEGIS" by the
highly reliable Chinese domestic media. The basic platform their surface-to-air missiles are based on also seems to be fairly capable--the HQ-9 is an S-300 derivative, a respectable SAM system though, again, how capable it is against opponents in an active electronic warfare environment is questionable, and it has basically no capabilities against stealth aircraft like the F-35 as far as anyone knows. The efficacy of their CIWS, again, is open to question. Really this is true of everything about the modern PLAN, and PLA in general. The PLA is secretive, has not exported most of its hardware, and has developed largely independently of foreign militaries, though it is definitely influenced by them. Now that the PLAN has moved away from simply copying foreign hardware and patching it together, its capabilities are much harder to discern.
However, they should be taken as a very real threat, and not written off. My guess would be that their warships are about as capable as most of their non-American counterparts, save those equipped with AEGIS, but that's all my guess is---a guess.
5. What the PLAN looks like now--carriers
The PLAN currently has two carriers in service, and two more known to be under construction, and most suspect that it will build several more. However, at the moment, the PLAN's carrier force is largely a paper tiger, designed around training. The first carrier, the Type 001, basically was a "how do you build a carrier" kit bought from Russia, possibly by accident--the "fully functional"
Minsk ended up as a theme park, believe it or not. The hull was purchased from Ukraine and then completed in China years later. It is also believed that the PLAN may have learned some things about aircraft carriers from the HMAS Melbourne, which was sold to a Chinese firm for scrapping--rumor has it the PLAN had no clue this had happened and then had a field day looking at all the stuff that hadn't been taken out. This was back in the old days when nobody could imagine that China would have an aircraft carrier. The Type 002, however, is built from scratch, but isn't particularly capable especially as it's a ski-jump carrier, leaving the Type 003 the first carrier which will prove actually useful.
The main thing holding China's carrier fleet back, though, is a lack of a suitable aircraft. Originally China was considering purchasing Su-33s from Russia, hardly a good carrier-based aircraft but functional, but after Russia discovered that China had been mucking about building a Su-27 derivative without asking the deal fell through [China tells a different story, saying that Russia demanded exorbitant amounts to reopen production which it was unwilling to pay for a nearly obsolete aircraft]. As a result China operates the J-15 as its naval fighter, with... less than stellar results. It's extremely heavy, and, if it takes off from the carrier, has minimal range if carrying anything at all--it can't take more than two short range air to air missiles into the sky to fight enemy aircraft. However, the J-15 isn't really intended for combat service--it's intended to teach China how to run carriers, and it seems to work well enough for that task, aside from the
multiple fatal crashes. There is, however, thought to be a new carrier fighter in the pipeline--most say the J-31/FC-31, which has reduced RCS and a number of carrier-unique features, is being pitched as a carrier-based aircraft and will serve as China's carrier fighter in the future. China also lacks any fixed wing carrier-based airborne early warning, which could prove troublesome--a lack of AEW means that its view is limited by the horizon--and has no resupply aircraft like the C-2 Greyhound. As a result, for the moment at least, China lacks an effective carrier force, but it is likely to continue developing rapidly in the next decade and become a fairly substantial threat. Remember that as recently as 2010, a Chinese aircraft carrier seemed preposterous to many people, and now they have two.
6. Some attention to land-based aircraft
Land-based aircraft as a naval weapon are not generally used by the US, which has never had a reason to develop them as a doctrinal focus. Sure, you could potentially envision them as being used, and there even were situations where they were utilized, but it just wasn't generally a priority or how things were done. For China, though, taking influence from the Soviets, and lying on littoral seas with hostile powers in the First Island Chain, land-based aircraft and missiles are a key part of doctrine. Although this is often viewed as a new thing, called A2/AD [anti access/area denial], it's really the result of a long historical evolution of naval power, probably most refined by the Soviet Union. As a result, land-based naval aviation plays an important role, firing anti-ship missiles at standoff distances at enemy vessels, and shore-based launchers of anti-ship missiles are also an important weapon. The combination of these systems means that venturing within China's littoral seas is a dangerous proposition during war, and some waters, like those of the Taiwan Strait, are effectively considered closed at this point in the event of hostilities breaking out. For this reason air superiority is also important in this sort of naval warfare, as if either side gains air superiority it can pummel its opponents with air-launched anti-ship missiles. China's capabilities in this area are sophisticated and should not be underestimated, but they are unlikely to go through a rapid period of growth like the PLAN's fleet.
And a brief note dedicated entirely to the DF-21D "Carrier killer" that the PLA likes to show off. It's a pretty impressive capability, on paper, using a ballistic missile to hit a carrier. The CEP [circular error probable] means that it could even happen, presuming that an aircraft carrier was good enough to sit in one place, not moving, long enough to be detected by China. Aircraft carriers look big, but the seas are huge, and they're surprisingly hard to find. They also move quite fast, in excess of of 35mph/55kph, and thus by the time the ballistic missile has launched it might well be out of range given the fact that ballistic missiles are not particularly known for their maneuverability in terminal stages, at least not in the realm of miles. The DF-21D is not a particular threat to the modern aircraft carrier. It could potentially be one if it evolves into a hypersonic boost-glide vehicle, but that's a whole additional can of worms, that I might address a different day.
7. The PLAN's plans for the future--what will it look like in 2030?
Unfortunately the PLAN is not exactly the most open of navies, as I've repeatedly mentioned. There are no public debates over acquisitions programs, no big fleet shape plans, relatively little detail.
However, a few things are fairly sure bets or publicly announced.
China has repeatedly announced plans to build a six-carrier force, including the Type 001 and Type 002, but also a pair of Type 003 [already under construction] conventionally powered supercarriers and a pair of Type 004 nuclear powered supercarriers. However, it seems that the Type 004 is currently on hold. Why, exactly, is unclear, but it seems to be technical difficulties, which are not particularly surprising given that China's experience with nuclear maritime propulsion seem to be rather limited and have had poor results in their submarine fleet. The costs were also expected to be too high--China does not have an unlimited quantity of money, despite what it may flaunt, and nuclear carriers are expensive to develop especially given that China has not built a nuclear-powered surface ship before.
A new carrier-based fighter is almost certainly in the cards because the J-15 is pretty much useless. The FC-31 seems by far the most likely candidate but it could be another aircraft we haven't seen yet. The addition of this aircraft will greatly improve the PLAN's capabilities.
China also has two Type 075 amphibious assault ships/LHDs under construction, and I would expect this class to be much more prolific. These ships are much more affordable than the full carriers, and focus on areas in which China is particularly concerned--amphibious assaults, say, on islands in the South China Sea or on Taiwan, and anti-submarine warfare, which is of particular importance given that submarines cannot be easily halted with land-based anti-ship missiles and air-launched cruise missiles provided for in their area denial doctrine--submarines are one of the few things that can slip through that net.
The surface combatant fleet is likely to continue growing, but I am not sure if it will swell much beyond the ~23 Type 052D ships planned and the 8 Type 055s. We're likely to see the retirement of the classes preceding the Type 052C destroyer and the Type 054 frigate, and they may be offloaded to Bangladesh, Myanmar, or Pakistan--there is substantial precedent here, and it seems that China is interested in expanding the naval capabilities of its partners around India.
The submarine fleet is likely to see rapid expansion
if the PLAN is satisfied with the Type 095 and Type 096 classes, and we're likely to see more diesel-electric subs built as well. Submarines are generally quite good at fighting submarines and conducting area-denial missions, and the large and capable subsurface forces of Japan, Korea, and the United States means that this has to be an area the PLAN invests more in--and the fact that several Southeast Asian nations are also looking at acquiring submarines makes the issue more pressing.
8. Conclusion
China has in the past decade gone from a third-rate navy to perhaps the greatest threat the US Navy has faced since the Second World War. This has significant geopolitical implications, and has resulted in neighbors scrambling to overhaul their naval forces. The growth of the PLAN means that the US can no longer easily defend Taiwan or the South China Sea, or any of China's littoral waters. This, more than anything else, is what has everyone scrambling in the US talking about "great-power competition" because denying access to the US Navy and working on power projection, an inherently naval thing, is essentially a clear sign that China is looking to directly compete with the United States. Underestimate the PLAN at your own peril.
I hope to have more detail and citations in future posts, but unfortunately the PLAN is very secretive [yes, I've said that fifty times already] and this is a pretty big topic to discuss without going into details about all sorts of naval tidbits. Thanks for reading the fourth post in what I hope will be a fairly substantial series, probably around ~12 posts.
9. Citations
James Holmes, "The Danger Zone In Naval Arms Races" USNI, Report to Congress on Chinese Naval Modernization Hans Kristensen, China's Noisy Nuclear Submarines Eric Wertheim, China's Type 052D Destroyer is a potent adversary Robert Farley, Let's Talk About The Chinese Navy's Type 055 Destroyer Ryan Pickrell, Chinese fighter jet holding China back as it builds carrier fleet Look, much more here is based on loose speculation, more unreliable sources, and stuff I've picked up over the years, because public info is limited. So take everything I say with a grain of salt, but understand that it's the best information
I know of.
submitted by Australia’s success in curbing Covid-19 infections is allowing it to slowly ease some restrictions even as it remains largely closed off from the rest of the world, taking its economy back to the pre-globalization era.
Mining and agriculture continue to support exports and a government-sponsored group is looking at ways to revive manufacturing. But the flow of foreign tourists, students and immigrants has been frozen, pinning hopes for a rebound on local consumption.
The closed borders and domestic reliance has the economy harking back to the 1980s, before the lifting of tariffs opened up trade and Paul Hogan offered to put another shrimp on the Barbie for international visitors.
Services Driven Nearly two-thirds of economic output from service industries
Australian Bureau of Statistics
Nominal gross value added, 2018-19
The capacity of services to quickly turnaround and the fact Aussies aren’t blowing savings on holidays abroad could help the nation fare better than many developed-world peers. Much will depend on the mood of households as unemployment rises, with a poor construction outlook adding to headwinds.
What Bloomberg’s Economists Say “Close to 1 million Australians per month traveled overseas in 2019. They will now be looking for a change of destination, heading to Noosa instead of Nusa Dua; Port Douglas, not Penang; and catching up with friends at bars in Melbourne Laneways, instead of Hong Kong’s mid levels. Containment measures change the economics of international travel.”
James McIntyre, economist
Household consumption, which makes up around 55% of the economy, has been boosted on the one hand by people stocking up on essentials during the lockdown, but hammered on the other as they couldn’t eat out or go to the movies. Shops and restaurants are gradually reopening but, for consumption to drive any rebound, households must put aside concerns over job security and debt to drive spending. That may be tough.
Wesfarmers Ltd. is seeing shift in consumer behavior across its retail portfolio. Home improvement and office products stores, Bunnings and Officeworks, have seen significant uplift in sales, while general merchandise stores, Target and Kmart, have seen sales slow.
Pessimistic households have consumption outlook seeming bleak Even before Covid-19, Australian households were among the most indebted in the developed world, with debt almost double disposable income. The threat of unemployment to people’s ability to meet their debts is now key, and the Reserve Bank of Australia has long acknowledged it as a major risk facing the economy.
The unemployment rate is currently 6.2%, with the central bank expecting it to peak at around 10%. Banks are offering repayment holidays to help tide homeowners over and have quadrupled provisions for an expected surge in bad debts.
Australia Passes Massive Stimulus Measures as Virus Spreads People wait in line outside a Centrelink office in the Bondi Junction suburb of Sydney, March 2020.Photographer: Brendon Thorne/Bloomberg The absence of skilled migration due to closed national borders will also hit pause on what had been steady stream of profitable mortgage lending for the banks. That could flow through to housing prices if sustained.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia said its base case is for an 11% fall in home prices, though in a prolonged downturn a cumulative 32% slump is possible. National Australia Bank Ltd. said in a severe downturn, prices could plummet 21% this year.
Uncertainty and job insecurity impacting property market Residential construction typically closely follows house price movements, and the sector was already scaling back activity following the previous flood of new stock still working its way into the market.
The RBA earlier this month said that indications from the initial stages of the development process suggests demand for new housing “has deteriorated significantly.” It expects dwelling investment to plunge 17% in the 12 months through June and remain a drag on growth until 2021.
Property investors have been hit by the six month moratorium on tenancy evictions during coronavirus. Without renewed interest from investors, it’s challenging to get a new apartment development, particularly of any size, into construction.
The same holds for business investment. Unless the project was already underway, or is related to creating a covid-safe environment, capital expenditure plans have been parked until demand returns.
Natural Endowment Things look brighter as you leave the cities. Internationally, Australia is known as a commodity powerhouse. While it accounts for just 10% of output, it is a key source of export income and prosperity in the country.
Iron ore shipments from Port Hedland, a key export hub, hit a record for April, while gold sales from Perth Mint -- the main refiner -- also surged. Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. lifted its projected annual iron ore shipments in a wager on China’s recovery. “We are selling everything we can possibly produce,” Chairman Andrew Forrest says.
Net exports important source of economic growth It’s less rosy for the liquefied natural gas producers. Just as the coronavirus sent the global economy into lockdown, Russia and Saudi Arabia began a standoff that sent oil prices tumbling below zero.
Top producers Woodside Petroleum Ltd. and Santos Ltd. have slashed spending plans and deferred flagship growth projects -- worth over $15 billion -- in line with drastic steps by energy majors worldwide to hunker down during the pandemic.
On The Sheep’s Back Virus Fears Grow In Sydney As Growing GDP Expected To Be Hit Rolls of toilet papers sit in an empty section of a supermarket in Sydney, March 2020..Photographer: Brendon Thorne/Bloomberg As supermarket shelves were stripped bare, a panicked nation was reminded of the sheer mass of food the country’s farmers produce. Domestic food production services more than 90% of fresh produce sold in supermarkets and still is able to more than match that amount in exports.
The industry could also become an unexpected source of employment. Backpackers and workers from Pacific Islands flock to rural areas to pick up work with seasonal tasks, but with borders shut and jobs being lost across the economy, farmers are likely turn to the local community for the extra labor.
Other producers have greater worries. Barley and meat exporters have been caught in China’s crosshairs in retaliation for Australia’s public call for an independent investigation of the coronavirus outbreak, while the wine industry is looking on nervously.
It’s been a tough year for wine, even before the virus. Clonakilla winery in New South Wales, north of Canberra, decided against producing a 2020 vintage after analysis showed unacceptably high levels of smoke taint from wildfires over the summer.
Exploring Our Own Backyard Australia's China Reliance Backfires as Virus Fallout Spreads Students sit on the grass at the University of Sydney, Feb. 2020.Photographer: Brent Lewin/Bloomberg The education industry was one of the first to feel the pinch from coronavirus restrictions. When the government imposed travel bans on flights from China in February, around 100,000 international students were unable to enter Australia to begin the academic year and left universities bracing for a costly fallout.
The University of Sydney, where students from China represented nearly one-quarter of the total student body, projected a A$470 million loss this year. Other institutions, including the University of Melbourne and Monash University, are bracing for similar hits. Even smaller regional institutions that don’t attract nearly the same level of international students have been affected.
With a lot of money at stake, there could be a relaxation of international border restrictions for students to study in Australia, before leisure travelers are allowed. But for businesses catering toward an offshore audience, demand is unlikely to snap back.
Qantas Airways Ltd. is currently operating just 1% of its network and has canceled overseas fights until at least the end of July. Its main competitor, Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd., collapsed into administration in April.
Virgin Australia Collapses After Pandemic Halts Air Travel Virgin Australia check-in kiosks inside a deserted Sydney Airport, April 2020. Photographer Brendon Thorne/Bloomberg Crown Resorts Ltd. and Star Entertainment Group Ltd., which both target big-spending visitors from Asia, were forced to close their casinos in Australia as the country locked down. Crown is just months away from completing a A$2.2 billion luxury gaming resort in Sydney.
The tourism industry was already reeling from the wave of cancellations following the December and January wildfires. The silver lining is that Australians will have no option but to spend holidays on home soil once inter-state travel is allowed again.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-19/australia-goes-back-to-the-1980s-with-economy-closed-to-world?sref=s0L1qQ1H Wall of text, doing as much for my own thinking as anything else
TL:DR- Did China send infected testing kits to Iran and Italy, and false negative kits since? Deliberate or just crooks? Has this caused unnecessary over reactions globally? why aren't cities or countries already going dark from COVID? The billionaires and non political leaders are strangely silent. The world has fired all its bullets. If this comes back there is no next time. Could something emerge from those ashes?
HOW COULD CHINA HAVE POSSIBLY CONTAINED THIS?
How did Wuhan get it, but Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou & Shenzhen etc did not. It is impossible. So the possible outcomes are either
- It is just not that contagious.
- Plenty of Chinese in those cities did get it and a few million might have died but overall it is not that bad
- Chinese got it and all were secretly inoculated
- They have yet to get it, and when they come outdoors it will eventually break out
WHY IRAN AND ITALY UNLIKE EVERYWHERE ELSE
The BIG question which makes little sense is this is how did Italy and Iran get it so bad, so fast, but nowhere else has had a similar explosion
It does not seem probably that Italy and Iran were that close in time to Wuhan, but the rest of Italy and the world were that far behind them, and it is yet to happen
WHY ARE CRUISE SHIPS SUCH PETRI DISHES FOR THIS?
Cruise ships have been a ground zero. In Australia we were in lock-down and in late March, after the lock-downs they let the Ruby Princess just unload passengers at Circular Quay,. It was known at least 7 people had the virus, and ships were a petri dish, and yet late one night someone opened the gangplank and over 2000 people just walked off into the night. At least a few hundred of them we now know have the virus. Anyone who knows Australia’s border security and quarantine, and immigration, knows this just doesn’t happen. How did they get at least 20 people to stand back and let those people disembark
PATHETIC PROTECTION PRACTICES THAT ACCELERATED THIS- NEGLIGENCE OR DELIBERATE?
Some international travelers who returned to Australia in early March, before the lock-downs, were found to be super spreaders- but the people they infect don’t seem to be super spreaders which makes little sense. In Australia we had multiple instances of people returning from USA, 1 went to a wedding in Hunter Valley upon arrival and infected 31 of the 51 people there. Another went to a 50th in Noosa and similar spreading, another landed from Aspen went to a party in Melbourne and similar infection rates. So how is this happening, and why are those hundred people similarly not infecting on a mass basis?
Now we aren’t testing much in Australia. Lack of kits and what’s the point- if you have normal cold symptoms just lock in at home and ride it out until you feel better. If a 70+ year old Prince Charles can recover in a few days why overwhelm health facilities over nothing and risk nothing more than spreading the infection on right. (So it is “just like a cold then, right?”)
MAKING SENSE OF INACCURATE DATA THAT CONFUSES AND CONTRADICTS
It has now been long enough that those people should have similarly infected people on mass. Yet they haven’t. Unless you want to think a huge number of people in Australia already have it. But that can’t be- if so then this appears to be a con, and why are we bankrupting millions of people and risking our economies to prevent this? It doesn’t make sense.
So how did Italy spread like wildfire but pretty well just stop in the local area. Iran similar.
Now enough data is out that we can see most of those who died in Italy were the old, poor health, the air quality. male, smokers, multiple other conditions. We have perhaps 2% (confirm) who die with COVID where it can’t be attributed to multiple other underlying health conditions, and their cause of death is being put within the COVID death tally
So why is Rome not disintegrating and their death rate beyond control? Do we not think those people in the north did not travel to Rome and it spread there before anyone figured out what was going on up North and they started to distance/ quarantine? No way that didn’t happen
The data we are so far seeing is a blip. If UK lost 57,000 in its last bad flu season, let’s call that 4 months, that’s what, 3,000 people dying from it in a week during the season. 10,000, 50,000, 100,000…1million dead WITH this worldwide would not be unusual
And why have we not seen countries with huge density and poor sanitary conditions just explode? More people travel from Wuhan to Thailand than travel to Northern Italy
How did NYC act as an epicentre but LA, Disneyland, Chicago, San Fran- other high urban and ultra high-contact business districts. Why are they weeks behind NYC?
Why has a Nigeria not gone dark? They have 1 slum with 10 million people living in mud, occupying an area 10x10km. Or Sao Paolo? Or India. (They’re going to die from food riots before COVID) And Indonesia- 1 mosque has 150,000 people in it these places are ground zero for mass fast transmission. Or Manilla. Or Bangkok. Infection through ordinary passenger and people movement in these cities must have seen those cities infect up light years ahead of Northern Italy did.
THE ONLY PLAUSIBLE EXPLANATION I CAN SEE TO WHY ITALY/ IRAN INFECTED SO HARD AND SLOW EVERYWHERE ELSE
When this first appeared in Italy and Iran as a new virus that hospitals needed to test for, testing kits WERE sent from China them and these kits WERE infected. It appears that this is what massively accelerated the spike in those 2 locations, and why Bangkok, Manilla, NYC, Rome etc have been a slot burn of person to person low level and accumulation infection.
We will probably find that the Shenzhen company that sent those kits also sent them to parts of France, UK and Spain explaining their high initial deaths
Whether this was deliberate remains to be seen. I am a hard core conspiracy lover from way back, but I can see that this could have simply been more dirty crooked Chinese businesses and this one just really fucked us all good.
ODD ASPECTS OF IT- WHERE ARE THE PEOPLE AND THE BODIES?
There is so limited footage anywhere in the world showing hospitals and medical centres that appear to have any sense of emergency. Perhaps everyone is out the back and all other things aren’t happening. No kids are in the park falling off a skateboard, no one driving having an accident therefore COVID is the only stuff happening in hospitals and it is “out the back”. That’s entirely plausible
No testing happening- too much footage of empty testing facilities around the world. This is very odd. You'll see a lot of this soon
Only 1 footage of body bags in a NYC hospital – eerie but not proof of anything
RUMOURS OF HOW COVID WORKS AND IMPACTS
- It is suggested by some that Asian men have a DNA difference that makes them more susceptible
- It is suggested males who recover become sterile
- It is suggested if you recover your lungs are effed.
- It is suggested that you are not immune and will be worse the next time it comes back
- There is too little data to really know any of this
But there is a MASSIVE VACUUM of factual information- how is it that we see footage of and hear of people walking and just dropping dead. What is COVID doing that causes that if that is really happening?
It is suggested that if you get coughed on, or a small exposure, it’s not much- that’s a cold you just caught and just got 10 units of “it”. If so this could explains why for most people it really is a non issue, a mild cold. That could explain how someone like Peter Dutton or Boris Johnson got it but his wife and kids who live shoulder to shoulder in a house and car etc did not catch it
Some suggest there are super spreaders, they are carrying say a “10,000 load”. According to some they may only be capable of passing on a 100 infection load say, And that person might give off a 10 load and so on
What the emerging data does show is that Nurses and Doctors may be the ones in real trouble. They are being repeatedly exposed to asymptomatics with say 10 units, and over and over and they are building up to a 500 or 5000 themselves. This appears to be a slow burn for them and one to really watch for. (When enough of them decide they aren’t going to work we’re in a world of trouble)
THE SHUTDOWNS ARE NECESSARY BECAUSE THEY ALL CAN’T BE THAT DUMB TO DO THAT IF IT WASN’T A REAL CRISIS
Well yes they can be that dumb. Often leaders are just narcissists who ran the system such that they end up in a position of power and we defer leadership to them not on their ability but they occupy a chair. Their decisions are usually based on what is hoped to be good advice from people who lack information and just see what counterparts elsewhere are doing. It’s often a giant circle jerk and they are relying on little, poor, weak and false information.
Watching WHO backflip since January should be enough for you to know that they are bought and owned and incompetent in this. Their information have been shown to be false repeatedly. You watch, they’ll tell us we need to wear masks now.
DOGS THAT DON’T BARK
People on this sub know that it isn’t the dogs that bark that are the problem. It’s the dogs that don’t bark. Consider this, think of alllll the non-political leaders around the world. Those who are the captains of industry, the super leaders and super wealthy, Warren Buffet, Richard Branson, each country has them. “Philanthropists” and futurists. Well apparently this is an existential crisis. Billions are afraid for their health and livelihoods, their ability to earn money and provide for their families. It has now gone on long enough that our lives and world will change massively. In the meantime, fear, anxiety, depression, domestic violence, alcoholism, child abuse will explode. Where are they? Where are the great futurists? Where is Elon Musk? Where is Jeff Bezos? Where is Bill Gates? Don't say they are running their empire and its in crisis- they have multiple CEOs do that for them
Ask yourself where are the billionaires and people standing up in your nation saying we need to come together and build community and local digital and physical support networks? I don’t know why but we are being deliberately isolated from each other, physically and psychologically. All of the global elite have gone to ground. Those dogs are too silent
THERE IS A REASON THEY ARE STAYING SILENT.
My observation is that they either know something and are deliberately staying out of this, or they are truly corrupt and believe this will blow over and keeping their cash dry to buy investments for cents in the dollar
Whatever is happening they appear to know *something*. These people are such psychopaths, narcissists and ego trippers that they just can’t resist in moments like this
There’s a reason they have gone to ground. Maybe they are just ugly without stylists and botox. Maybe it is lack or that adrenochrome, maybe they’re all in NZ. I have no idea. But I smell a ~~rat~~ **bat**
YOU SAW A LIST OF ALL THOSE TOP 500 CEOS RESIGNING
There’s 500 of them and let’s say they stay on average 4 years in the job, that’s 10 a month ordinarily resigning. Keep moving
But it is undeniable that those US politicians on the inside of this saw something a few months ago and sold stocks and bought others. (In principle they should be on the end of a rope for this)
TIMING IMPACTS/ SURROUNDING EVENTS
Would any of the following have affected the timing of this?
Happened Right after Hong Kong elections, Right after Taiwan Elections, Right after Chinese New Year, Right after Northern Hemisphere comes out of its flu season period, right after Davos?
ANTI CHINA SENTIMENT WILL FORCE CHINA'S HAND INTO SOMETHING
You watch, in the next few weeks there will be an explosion of anti-china sentiment. Buy Australian, America First, British Businesses First. The problem is we have sucked so hard on the China nipple that we will starve if Mother Xi takes it out. You want to see half the universities in UK, Australia and Canada close down- just watch. All they have to do is say fine, we won’t buy your wool, or your coal, or iron ore. In Australia’s case it would FINISH us. Overnight. Never mind our dollar should fall to USD$0.40 after the printing we’ve announced it will fall to US$0.20.
Too many instances of Chines people around the world doing weird things to spread an infection- if they had it, licking things – admittedly probably just mentally ill people but it feeds into the anti china hate
People will turn on China and governments will need a scapegoat for the taxes that will come to pay for this. IF China did this deliberately to destabilise and kill or conquer the West or if they are just innocent victims of crooked businessmen and their pride prevented them from admitting that we’ll see I guess
SO WHAT WILL HAPPEN?
It all Depends on whether it was a State Sponsored plan to destroy economies and destabilise them for whatever objective, or if it was just more crooked Chinese businesses who’s factories sent infected testing kits, and false negative testing kits, and falsely labelled fake-masks (Google fake baby formula, fake eggs, fake condoms, etc). This is entirely plausible as would be a cover up in China of that - the face thing Chinese need to grow up and get over.
WHAT DO I THINK?
I have no idea. Here is what I think I know
- Everyone lies
- Govts will bankrupt 10 generations to keep people happy tomorrow
- Govts are utterly incompetent
- We are relying on beurocrats and public servants to deliver us from evil. The problem is they have jobs for life and pensions for life. They are incapable of being objective in this
- We have no reason to trust China- Chinese businesses and the Chinese government
- India has 2 weeks or it will go dark. Not from the virus but from food insecurity. First the 2 x religions will turn on each other in small locations, then there will be a wave of exodus for protection, then people will see the govt will not be able to deliver the food, and then the place goes up in smoke
- If this is shown to be a false alarm- there was an unintended/ deliberate infection into Iran and Italy, and unintended spread through false negatives, and a few super spreaders distorted, people who have lost things, like their business, will be pissed off. Casino’s will be the some of the first places to be lit up
- There are too many silent dog
OR
This is deliberate and we are all fucked.
IS THERE AN ILLUMINATI IN CONTROL?
Perhaps. But we have now seen that these NSA, FBI, CIA KGB, Mossad etc intelligence agencies were a myth all along. That anyone with half a functining brain left them and went into private business and the only people left there are zealots, dinosaurs and losers. We know this because they have information but showed no intelligence - none of them saw this or protected against it. No country secretly stockpiled PPEs and Ventilators. Instead it looks like they bought faulty shit from China that fucked them well and good, with economies on the edge of an abyss if a jolt to the system happened during this crisis
BILLIONS IN THEIR HOMES, FIRST TIME IN HISTORY, ON LINES, SEARCHING FOR SOMETHING- WILL SOMEONE REVEAL THEMSELVES?
If there was a god, a magician, a healer, an ET, a UFO, a time traveler, a reptilian overlord, a simulation programmer from the 25th century well, now is their window to reveal themselves.
Don’t hold your breath, if they are holding back because they somehow know this goes pear shaped then if it is pear shaped no one will be on line to witness their majesty. Their window is closing daily
THE POWERS THAT BE WILL NOT LET US OUT SOON ENOUGH TO REHIRE AND GET THE ECONOMY MOVING BACK TO WHAT IT WAS
Our economies have been so wrecked that the politicians now need this to be bad to make it justifiable
Their best hope is many thousands dead and they can claim the line was not breached they flattened the wave and we can thank and re-elect them, it was all necessary. The cure was worth the price
As soon as they take the foot off the brake and we come out of our little ice igloos and someone gets an infection they have to shut the economy and travel and movement down again.
Governments and police forces NEVER hand back power given to them…EVER. And we have conditioned ourselves to them
The cure WILL be worse than the cold, so to say
IT IS INEVITABLE THAT WE ALL NEED TO BE INFECTED WITH THIS
>75% of us need to become infected and immune from this before we can resume any sort of global normal. Borders cannot open for mass travel until then.
Expect rolling infections. They will move medical personnel and supplies zone by zone and turn it from Red to Green. Then you can have your microchip that proves you are not infected. Or a bracelet if you prefer
I am not particularly a deep ended NWO ZOG 666 believer, but I cannot see how this will not be an eventuality. They simply will not allow global travel if they open the doors and this breaks out again. We will have already seen airlines and travel industry go out of business. It can’t happen again. No green check mark, no travel. (And this explains the silence and absence of Bill Gates by the way)
HOW CAN I TELL WHETHER IT WAS A CON OR A REAL?
There cannot be a nation that does_not_go dark because of this. There HAS to be a country that smashes the line, Shit even if it were a TB or whooping cough outbreak, something, somewhere, very soon. If it doesn’t then we have been had. And if we have been had then there was a reason. And we are all inside. Isolated. Relying on the govt to eat, and when we are allowed to leave our homes to buy food. With dogs that aren’t barking. It was a set up. For some reason. In 2020 just like they said
REAL THREATS IN THE MEANTIME
- The internet going down
- China blocking supply of Tungsten (the most critical raw material on earth and 90% of it comes from China)
- Someone spikes a local water supply
- A few interconnectors go down sending a city dark
- That this really is a slow burn thing and the nurses and doctors get ill and don’t turn up
THERE’S ALWAYS A SAVIOR WHO WILL OFFER HOPE
Whoever offers the best solution in or from this- he’s probably the master villain in all this
ILLUMINATI, 666, NWO, FREEMASONS, ZOG, REPTILES, ICKE, SKULL&BONES
- I guess here we are there aren’t we. The world can be tipped one way or the other and it will happen now in COVID or in the next type of COVID. Just like the starship enterprise in a battle our global shields are down to 20%- we can’t do another bailout, or rescue, we’ve fired all our photons and those that are on order for future delivery. We’ve spent our global pennies and we better hope it works
- If anyone stands up and offers us a solution it can will demonstrate if there really ever was a hidden hand of apron wearing, cult chanting overlords pulling strings behind the scenes after all
- That’s something
WE ARE 100% EXPENDABLE AND ON OUR OWN IN THIS
- Individually you are 100% on your own in this, No one is coming to help you. Your police will even arrest you if you step out of line or don’t line up for your sedative
- Media, politicians, police, military, sportspeople, business leaders, they all exist to serve themselves, at your expense and that is never been more apparent than now
- Sadly there is probably not much we can do. We are all tiny cogs in a big charade. Of incompetence or design.
WHAT WILL BE THE OUTCOMES
- Our masters will have more power and they will not hand that back. They never have and never will
- The wealthy will become even more wealthy
- We will all work longer, for less, and owe more, individually and collectively. And death duties. Guaranteed
- If not from this one, within a few years the next “one” will melt the system. THAT is where if I were a hidden hand I would expose myself. Exhaust the people during this one, bleed it dry in this one, strike in the next one
WHAT SHOULD WE DO?
- I have no idea. Get out of debt? Buy food? Build a bunker? Stock up on toilet paper? Pray? Beats me
- The best outcome might be to simply accept the inevitable and convince your other you might as well become swingers and enjoy it
- Or learn maybe Chinese
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Everywhere I seemed, there was one thing that caught my eye – clothing, accessories, shoes and extra – especially since I received a 10 % off Visitor Savings Pass only for being an international customer. In the cosmetics division, I obtained fantastic personal service and a makeover. Macy’s at South Coast Plaza really has a lot to be desired, including a separate store only for males. Merritt Square Mall on Merritt Island and the Melbourne Square Mall in Melbourne provide traditional shopping mall venues.
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