Welp, there it is. We're officially out of football until the "kinda combines" and draft. Hopefully by the time camps and preseason comes around, we start to see glimpses of a post(ish?) Covid-19 landscape - both personally and also in the sportsverse.
I've really tried to put in a lot of work through the season adjusting my thoughts on rookies - on the fly - based on adding to the sample. The reactions and style of my methodology has clear strengths and weaknesses. No better were the weaknesses illustrated than overreacting to JT's abysmal stretch midseason. On the flipside, my "I'm worried about Reagor" (quite earlier than most!) and "The Bell signing is going to crush CEH for at least this year" were valid concerns. And I definitely was one of the earlier guys to start hyping Tee Higgins once he showed some signs. That said - my methodology is mostly a barometer of perceived value, and the combination of an extremely talented 2020 Draft Class as well as a Covid-19 impacted year probably made for a very non-typical year as far as Rookie evaluation goes.
Before the season started, I did a mildly popular [Dynasty 2020 Rookie Stock Watch] (and at the request of the community, I did weekly updates, and will continue doing this next year! In case you missed previous weeks, you can find week 1 here, week 2 here, week 3 here, week 4 here, week 5 here, week 6 here, week 7 here. week 8 here, week 9 here, week 10 here, week 11 here, week 12 here, week 13 here, week 14 here, week 15 here, and week 16 here.
As this is my last "risers and fallers" of the 2020 class, my disclaimers are a LITTLE different and I'd encourage you to read them before diving in.

1. I consider where I would now draft this player if we were to redo a 1QB rookie draft NOW, after a full season is in the books. Since higher picks are SO MUCH MORE VALUABLE, having a guy drop from 1.01 to 1.07 is a much bigger value loss than if a guy drops from 2.12 to 4.05. Also baked into my decisions of who is a riser and faller is how I feel the player looks to fit into future dynasty start up rankings. In some cases, a player ranked #1 and a player ranked #4 could feel miles apart on a rookie ranking, but I very well might consider them just as close (3 spots difference) in a full startup as well!
2. When I try to determine if a player has risen or fallen, I like to weigh what some of the perceptions were on that player's upside, and if any of those perceptions appear to no longer be true or at least need to be tempered.
3. We absolutely need to weigh in what the rookie did with the opportunities (or lack thereof) in their opening season. A huge factor in the final valuation of the 2020 rookies is this question: "What will they be worth before the 2021 season?" - and that question is highly impacted by volume and opportunity (and how they did with it!) in year 1.
4. Just because I have someone as a riser or faller doesn't mean I think you should buy/sell them at bad value. It's the same concept as stocks - if you believe in the fundamentals of the company you invested in, you don't sell off yet. 2020 was a WEIRD year. I expect we will have more "2nd year breakouts" than normal as a result. Similarly, after a stock skyrockets is not usually the best time to buy in - you'd want to wait for a brief regression before that. You should **always** make a value play, not merely selling or buying at cost.
5. Like Matthew Berry has said - just because a guy is on my faller list doesn't mean I like them less than a guy on my riser list. This is just my evaluation of their value relative to where it was before this season. These rankings are an attempt to really lock in where I feel the player will rank on a 2021 Startup draft compared to other rookies.

With that out of the way, let's dive in!

Biggest 2020 Season risers:

​

1. James Robinson. There really can be no answer other than JRob for the biggest riser of the season. In most drafts, he was not taken in the first 5 rounds. And if he was, it was still a VERY late flyer - and we've heard many stories of him being taken and cut and picked up by someone else. Wherever you have James Robinson now - he was virtually nothing more than "a very deep sleeper blip who might take over in a year when Fournette is gone". Well, that takeover happened, and it happened a year early. Robinson won a lot of people money this year, even as he disappeared by season end - because he still got you to the dance. For that reason, Robinson wins the title as the absolute biggest riser of the year.
2. Antonio Gibson. Depending on when you drafted (I drafted earlyish June) Gibson was a late 2nd/early 3rd. Once news started breaking regarding Guice (still makes me yikes when I type his name!) and Peterson was cut, Gibson climbed charts quickly. His profile was that of an extremely talented back with a TINY sample size running the ball. Now that sample size is a bit bigger, and we like what we see. He has all the makings of a guy who could be an RB1 type for the next few years, and big play potential to break open any touch. We're counting on an uptick in passing game usage in 2021, and crossing our fingers for some improvement at the QB position.
3. Jonathan Taylor. How does JT making the biggest riser list when he was already high to start the year? **Perceived startup value**. At this point, JT is a 1st half of the 1st round guy in tons of Dynasty Startups. That's a huge spike from where he was at the start of the year. You're looking at an RB that in many eyes is worth more than **every single WR playing football right now**. I'm not saying that's the precisely correct valuation for a player I embarrassingly was worried about for a few weeks... but it's where he's valued on a lot of charts now. So take it for what it is - Taylor is the single most valuable piece of the 2020 Draft Class.
4. Justin Jefferson. Similar narrative to Taylor - and you could make the case that I should swap these two guys, considering JT was a top 2 pick and JJeff was around 1.08-1.10. Not going to argue that really. Let's just say JJeff vaulted to the top of the WR class with a record-breaking year and is now the clear-cut 1 of a class where he started as the 3 or 4 on most lists. Heck - Jefferson's explosion has impacted the 2021 class valuations (Chase, anyone?) and has easily put him as a Dynasty Startup top 5 WR type.
5. Tee Higgins. This guy was simply not making it as a 1st round pick in a LOT of 1QB rookie drafts. Now he sits pretty comfortably as WR3 or 4, depending on who you ask. A lot of questions we have about Lamb's 2021 production also echo for Higgins - and we desperately want both to be reunited with their gunslingers as soon as possible. But where fears existed of Higgins being a boom-or-bust player, those fears have been silenced. It's boom.

​
Honorable mentions: I would be remiss if I didn't mention the great rookie years of Aiyuk and Claypool - both guys are positioned well to be strong WRs for any roster going forward, and both have upside potential to be even more than the greatness they've already flashed. I'm not sleeping on them. In addition, Herbert had a stellar season and should be looked at as the clear QB1 of the 2020 class.

Biggest 2020 Season fallers:

​

1. Ke'Shawn Vaughn. Look! We're talking about Vaughn again! A guy who was going as early as 1.08 in 1QB now would likely not even be a top 3 round pick. He's the inverse James Robinson. Not much else to say. He did put out a few nice plays here and there, but ended the season as effectively the RB4 on the Bucs. That could change in the offseason though, so if you bought stocks in Vaughn, don't cut bait at this point when there's a chance he heads into 2021 as Tampa's RB2.
2. Jalen Reagor. Depending on who you ask, Reagor was being taken as high as WR3 in the 2020 class. Despite his mediocre final season in college, people were sold on his talent and the barren Eagle's WR room. Instead, Reagor battled injuries, terrible QB play, and even when he did play, he was frequently outshined by... Travis Fulgham and Greg Ward. Don't get me wrong, anyone who has watched a bit of Eagles Football (firstly, pity them!) can tell that Reagor is way more talented than JJAW. But it might not be enough. In a year where so many great players were taken, Reagor feels like a fringe WR2 type at best, going forward.
3. Henry Ruggs. Taken as a back-end Rookie 1st, Ruggs flashed early, got hurt, and then totally fell off the map. Lots to be concerned about here as he rarely looked like anything more than an extremely expensive decoy who needs to catch all 3 of his targets per game to have a chance at a fantasy stat line worth starting. His value is a bit sticky because you can't picture the Raiders giving up on their 1st round draft pick. However, we're now left hoping that something changes in his usage and attention in 2021. Hoping for change is not the position you want to be in for a fantasy asset.
4. Clyde Edwards-Helaire. First, I can't knock CEH's strong job in an otherwise abysmal KC performance in the Super Bowl. He was extremely efficient per touch, and was one of the few bright spots in the game. The problem? Despite averaging almost 8 yards a touch, CEH only managed 11 touches. The early sparks he showed fizzled once Bell was eligible to play, as did his snap share and touch share. As of now, his usage simply isn't trending anywhere that would make him a top 6 pick if we were re-drafting the 2020 class. That's a significant drop, and we've gotta have him on the list as a result. I worry that the 2021 KC offense will use him the same way they used him the second half of the 2020 season. If that's the case, he's a low end RB2/very strong flex/RB3.
5. Bryan Edwards. One of 2020's biggest hype darlings found himself barely playing after getting hurt early. A guy who peaked as going nearly in the 1st round would now likely be a middle 3rd if the class was redrafted. Between Edwards and Ruggs, the Raiders managed to be the only team with two players to show up on the list, and having them both be fallers is not an encouraging sign. My gut tells me ONE of them might turn it around, but even that is a coinflip at this point. As I said in my disclaimer - it's possible a non-Covid year will allow some of these guys to be late bloomers.

How I rank them right now
(in 1QB, but I will include where I would bump the QBs up to in 2QB)
Tier 1, all 3 pretty similar in value for me
01 Jonathan Taylor
02 Justin Jefferson
03 Cam Akers
04 D'Andre Swift
05 Antonio Gibson
Tier 1.5 (not a true break from tier 1, very close in value)
06 JK Dobbins
07 CeeDee Lamb
08 Tee Higgins
09 James Robinson
10 Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Tier 2
11 Brandon Aiyuk
12 Chase Claypool
13 Justin Herbert (1.01 in 2QB/SF)
Tier 3
14 Jerry Jeudy
15 Laviska Shenault
16 AJ Dillon
17 Michael Pittman Jr
18 Denzel Mims
19 Jalen Reagor
Tier 4
20 Darnell Mooney
21 Joe Burrow (1.02-1.05 in 2QB/SF)
22 Tua Tagovailoa (1.03-1.06 in 2QB/SF - but definitely behind Burrow)
23 Henry Ruggs III
24 Gabriel Davis
Tier 5
25 Zach Moss
26 Jalen Hurts (late 1st in 2QB/SF)
27 Bryan Edwards
28 KJ Hamler
29 Lynn Bowden Jr. (but he drops to mid 30's if he loses RB eligibility in 2021... or goes to jail!)
30 Van Jefferson
31 Donovan Peoples-Jones
32 Cole Kmet
Tier 6
33 Devin Duvernay
34 La'Mical Perine
35 Collin Johnson
36 Quintez Cephus
37 Ke'Shawn Vaughn
Tier 7
38 Darrynton Evans
39 Tyler Johnson
40 Harrison Bryant
41 Anthony McFarland Jr
42 Salvon Ahmed
43 Joshua Kelley
44 Deejay Dallas
45 Jordan Love (late 2nd in SF)
46 Antonio Gandy-Golden
47 Albert Okwuegbunam
48 Adam Trautman
Obligatory Kicker Shoutout:
49 Tyler Bass
50 Rodrigo Blankenship
Last words:
Thank you so much for the support and dialogue throughout the year. It's been a joy and blessing to write this and be a distraction from the world while you reply and praise/criticize me shoot-from-the-hip takes. After the NFL draft, I'll be ready to do it all again with the 2021 class. Now to find my way onto a vaccine list...
As always, I'll try to engaged with each and every reply. :)

WEEK 17

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (7-8) @ DENVER BRONCOS (5-10)
SCORE

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	FINAL
	10	0	6	15	31
	3	14	0	15	32

Q1 Scoring:
9:06 - Brandon McManus 22-yard FG
4:34 - Daniel Carlson 33-yard FG
:17 - Troy Fumagalli 1-yard TD rec (Drew Lock pass) [PAT good]
Q2 Scoring:
11:15 - Darren Waller 28-yard TD rec (Derek Carr pass) [PAT good]
:26 - Bryan Edwards 26-yard TD rec (Derek Carr pass) [PAT good]
Q3 Scoring:
11:21 - Brandon McManus 37-yard FG
3:07 - Brandon McManus 26-yard FG
Q4 Scoring:
14:54 - Melvin Gordon 10-yard TD rush [2PC good]
7:27 - Josh Jacobs 28-yard TD rush [PAT good]
6:29 - Jerry Jeudy 92-yard TD rec (Drew Lock pass) [PAT good]
:24 - Josh Jacobs 1-yard TD rush (2PC good)

WEATHEBROADCAST

2:25 MT/3:25 CT/4:25 ET/1:25 ET/9:25 GMT @ Empower Field @ Mile High
Weather: 48f partly cloudy 6 w MPH

• TV: Beth Mowins and Tiki Barber
  
• Local Radio (KOA - 850 AM/94.1 FM & The Fox - 103.5 FM: Dave Logan, Rick Lewis, Susie Wargin)
  

^{KOA link only works on desktop, not mobile.}

INJURY

DEN Injury Report | LV Injury Report
DEN Inactives | LV Inactives

FAST FACTS

From PotRoastBoobs

• Melvin Gordon III is 107 rushing yards away from recording the second 1,000-yard rushing season of his career. His milestone would also represent the fourth consecutive year a Broncos running back has topped 1,000 rushing yards.
  
• With Bradley Chubb and Justin Simmons selection to the 2021 Pro Bowl, John Elway has now drafted, signed or extended 21 players who have combined for 42 Pro Bowl nods.
  
• Justin Simmons is one of five safeties in franchise history to make at least one Pro Bowl and AP All-Pro team during his career.
  
• Brandon McManus needs one 50+yard field goal to set an NFL single-season record for most made 50+yard field goals in a single season.
  

AROUND THE AFC WEST

Team		Opp.	Date	Time/Score
KC		LAC	1/3	11:00a
LAC	@	KC	1/3	11:00a
LV	@	DEN	1/3	2:25

THREAD NOTES

This thread is specifically geared toward Broncos fans.
Sort by new for the most recent comments.
Pick your flair in the sidebar.
Subscribe to /denverbroncos

I added in projected compensatory picks from OTC and the compensatory picks from the new minority candidate development rule. Not sure how those are supposed to be structured in, so I simply used the OTC ones first in the order, but took off the last 3 estimated compensatory picks to ensure it remained at a simple 32 compensatory picks added. So apologies to the Cowboys, Bears, and Steelers. You might have been robbed of a pick but I don't know the specifics of how all those will be factored in. If someone knows the actual way those will set-up, that'd be useful information. Going to provide commentary on rounds 1-3 then maybe the occasional commentary after that if I really like a fit.
Also, there's a chance that I missed someone announcing they were returning to school or not. Just let me know if so.

Pre-Draft Trades

Using the terms suggested from a SB Nation article, so yell at them if you hate it: CAR sends: QB Teddy Bridgewater, 2021, 2022, 2023 first-round picks, 2021, 2022 second-round picks HOU sends: QB Deshaun Watson
The Panthers have drafted relatively well the last 2-3 years, as they have several younger pieces they can continue building around. Thus, a major package to land QB Deshaun Watson should be something they explore. For Houston, a king's ransom for a disgruntled star who really wants out.
An NFC championship contender adds a big piece to their offense: GB sends: 2021 second-round pick, 2022 fifth-round pick DAL sends: WR Michael Gallup, 2021 seventh-round pick
The Packers add some extra firepower on offense by adding Gallup. With Rodgers window coming to a close, the Packers take a chance that an established veteran like Gallup will do more for them than a very late second-round pick. Dallas has Amari Cooper and now CeeDee Lamb at WR, making Gallup expendable if they get a good offer for him.
An NFC playoff team makes a splash at the quarterback position: WAS sends: 2021 fourth-round pick, 2022 seventh-round pick JAC sends: QB Gardner Minshew
While the Redskins did not land Stafford, they could still find a solid upgrade at the QB position by bringing in Gardner Minshew. I love how he fits in Scott Turner's offense, and think this would be a decent enough price to pay to give them some stability at the position.

First Round

(1) Jacksonville Jaguars - QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson - I'd imagine even though it's the only pick that never changes, Jaguars fans aren't bored of seeing this. Lawrence is a special player and their best bet at turning things around in a hurry.
(2) New York Jets - QB Zach Wilson, BYU - There still could be a small chance that the Jets stick with Sam Darnold, but we're going to go ahead and give Darnold a fresh-start somewhere else (trade to be revealed later). I have Fields a smidge higher than Zach Wilson, but could easily see him being the selection here. I think Wilson's a better fit, however, for LaFleur's Shanahan style offense. Either way, a talented QB for the Jets and head coach Robert Saleh (great f***ing hire btw Jets fans).
(3) Miami Dolphins (via HOU) - OT Penei Sewell, Oregon - With the Panthers giving up a haul for Deshaun Watson, the Dolphins may not have a lot of options to trade out of this spot. Thus, they stick tight and land an elite pass protector for QB Tua Tagovailoa.
(4) Atlanta Falcons - QB Justin Fields, Ohio State - Personally, I love the idea of Fields coming back home to Georgia to sit behind Matt Ryan for a season. The Falcons, and new head coach Arthur Smith, would be wise to take a QB while they're in a natural position to snag one. Ryan will start 2021 for sure due to his contract, but if things go well, they could make a Mahomes like transition to Fields into 2022.
(5) Cincinnati Bengals - OT Rashawn Slater, Northwestern - There a lot of buzz that Slater could be above Sewell in the mind of many NFL executives. Either way, it's a strong pick for the Bengals and Joe Burrow to land a top offensive tackle.
TRADE! The Patriots send their 2021 1st (1.15) along with a 2021 3rd (3.98) and a 2022 1st to the Eagles to move up to their selection at 6.
(6) New England Patriots (via PHI) - QB Trey Lance, North Dakota State - The Patriots need to make a significant investment in the QB position, as neither Cam Newton nor Jarrett Sitdham looked like the answer for them in 2020. Here they make a splash trade to move up and grab Lance, a player with immense physical talent. Ideally they'd land a veteran QB like Ryan Fitzpatrick to start in 2021 while they let Lance develop.
(7) Detroit Lions - WR Devonta Smith, Alabama - One thing lost in the Stafford-Goff trade is Detroit essentially nuking its cap space by bringing in Goff's $28 million deal. Now $11 million over the estimated cap, the Lions do not seem likely to retain WR Kenny Golladay at this point. They need a replacement for Goff to throw to while they determine if he'll be around longer than 2021.
(8) Houston Texans (via CAR) - CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech - Without a QB available here, the Texans play it patient, letting newly acquired Teddy Bridgewater run the show in 2021. They instead my personal top choice at corner this year, Virginia Tech's Caleb Farley. For a defense that needs to get turned around, he represents an excellent building block for them.
TRADE! The Miami Dolphins get aggressive here, sending their second first-round pick (1.18), a 2021 3rd (3.82) and a 2022 2nd round pick, and swap 2nds with Denver to move up here.
(9) Miami Dolphins (via DEN) - WR Ja'Marr Chase, LSU - The Dolphins go land a premier wide receiver target for QB Tua Tagovailoa to throw to. Chase and Smith will be widely debated for the top wide receiver honors in this draft class. Miami would likely be elated to add either one of them.
(10) Dallas Cowboys - CB Patrick Surtain II, Alabama - Surtain may not be my top cornerback, but the Cowboys should have no hesitation adding him here at tenth overall, especially considering the dire state of their defense.
(11) New York Giants - EDGE Kwity Paye, Michigan - Paye is an exceptional athletic talent. Much like fellow Wolverine Rashan Gary coming out of Ann Arbor, he's still got plenty of room to grow into an elite rusher. He was dominant in the first few games for the Wolverines in an otherwise rough 2020 season for Harbaugh and co.
(12) San Francisco 49ers - CB Jaycee Horn, South Carolina - I have top-15 grades on all three of the corners listed so far, so this remains excellent value in my opinion for the 49ers. They're likely going to lose a handful of cornerbacks to free agency this year, so landing a premier rookie to develop into a stud for DeMeco Ryans defense is a priority.
(13) Los Angeles Chargers - OT Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech - An excellent group of tackles in this year's draft class is a big benefit for the Chargers, as they're able to land a premier prospect like Darrisaw. He'll fit well in new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi's offense in his second-go as a play-caller.
(14) Minnesota Vikings - T/G Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC - Vera-Tucker has the flexibility to play tackle or move inside to guard. The Vikings have a similar player in Ezra Cleveland, which should give them the ability to move some guys around and find the ideal pairing here.
(15) Philadelphia Eagles - EDGE Gregory Rousseau, Miami - The Eagles probably have some positional needs above this, but it'd be a mistake to go for a worse player at a lesser player, thus the selection of Rousseau. He's an elite athlete and was incredibly disruptive for the Hurricanes in 2019. With Brandon Graham getting up there in age, and Vinny Curry set to hit free agency, this selection goes best player available with the near future in mind.
(16) Arizona Cardinals - TE Kyle Pitts, Florida - The Cardinals could use a monsterous pass catcher like Pitts to pair with DeAndre Hopkins. With some strong flashes from QB Kyler Murray in 2020, adding one more weapon could provide the breakthrough the Cardinals need to make it into the playoffs.
TRADE! The Steelers make a move up, sending a 1st (1.24), their third (3.88) and a 2022 fifth to move up and make the selection here instead of the Raiders.
(17) Pittsburgh Steelers - OT Samuel Cosmi, Texas - Jumping ahead of a couple of OT-needy teams in the WFT and the Bears, Pittsburgh gets its future franchise pass protector. Cosmi's film shows a highly athletic tackle who has gotten better each season in Austin. Put in a strong program under Mike Tomlin, I think Cosmi can thrive as a future All-Pro.
(18) Denver Broncos (via MIA) - LB Micah Parsons, Penn State - The Broncos land an absolute steal here with Parsons, an elite blend of size and speed at the LB position. Additionally, his versatility should be a weapon for Vic Fangio to deploy, as he's capable of filling multiple roles on any defense.
(19) Washington Football Team - WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama - I think a bigger wide receiver would work a bit better, but Scott Turner's creativity in building an offense around mostly role/gadget players like Logan Thomas and Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic gives me confidence he can make it work with an elite talent like Waddle.
(20) Chicago Bears - G Wyatt Davis, Ohio State - The Bears could probably go for a tackle a little bit more than a guard, but beggars cannot be choosers this late into the first-round. They land an elite interior lineman to immediately give a boost to their offensive line.
(21) Indianapolis Colts - QB Mac Jones, Alabama - Philip Rivers retired, Jacoby Brissett is a free agent, and Jacob Eason wasn't active for a single game. Add it all together and it looks like the Colts are in need of a QB like Jones. A decisive passer with a good deep ball, he'll be a nice addition for Frank Reich to mentor.
(22) Tennessee Titans - EDGE Jaelan Phillips, Miami - The Titans pass rusher was miserable this past season. Injecting some youth and athleticism into the equation could help Mike Vrabel get his defense back on track. Phillips was excellent for the Hurricanes in 2020.
(23) New York Jets (via SEA) - OT Alex Leatherwood, Alabama - The Jets add another big body here to pair on the other side of LT Mekhi Becton. With those two in town, new QB Zach Wilson should feel quite comfortable in the pocket.
(24) Las Vegas Raiders (via PIT) - DT Christian Barmore, Alabama - The sixth Crimson Tide player selected, Barmore was dominant the second half of the season in Tuscaloosa. He'd fill a big need on Ken Whisenhu...I mean, Gus Bradley's defense here in Vegas.
(25) Jacksonville Jaguars (via LAR) - WR Kadarius Toney, Florida - The Jaguars give Trevor Lawrence an explosive weapon to throw to. Toney lit up the SEC this season and was very impressive at the Senior Bowl. He'd join former Florida head coach Urban Meyer a short drive away.
(26) Cleveland Browns - DT Daviyon Nixon, Iowa - The Browns drafting this late with their own selection is a sign of how far they've come in recent years. They now have the ability to sit back and take the best player on the board in Nixon, a dominant pass rusher who came on strong in Big Ten play this year.
(27) Baltimore Ravens - WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota - I believe I've had this pick in the last mock I did as well, but it makes way too much sense. The Ravens need a top option at wide receiver and Bateman's a crafty player who fits their offense well.
(28) New Orleans Saints - CB Aaron Robinson, UCF - Robinson is a very underrated corner in this draft, and I really think he'll have a shot to land in the first-round. A quick player who always ends up in the right position, he'd be an excellent addition to the Saints defense.
(29) Green Bay Packers - LB Nick Bolton, Missouri - The Packers need some fresh blood at the second level, and Bolton's an absolute missile who flies all over the field. Bolton would fit really well in the middle of their defense, especially if the Packers hire a 3-4 zone blitz genius like Jim Leonhard as their new coordinator.
(30) Buffalo Bills - EDGE Azeez Ojulari, Georgia - A debate here between Ojulari and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, but ultimately think the depth at LB is a bit better in this class then pass rusher. So, Ojulari joins Sean McDermott's defense in Buffalo.
(31) Kansas City Chiefs - iOL Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma - The Chiefs need to add a starting caliber player to the interior of their offense line, and if Humphrey slides to them in the first-round, that'd be excellent value for them.
(32) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - RB Najee Harris, Alabama - Congratulations Bucs fans and the Brady bandwagon! Now, don't get too caught up on the position, the best way to maintain your dominance is to continue adding elite pieces, and Harris is a potential star at the RB position. Excellent in-between the tackles as well as in the passing game.

Second Round

(33) Jacksonville Jaguars - S Trevon Moehrig, TCU - I almost thought about Moehrig with their second first-round pick, but ultimately he still lands in Jacksonville.
(34) New York Jets - RB Travis Etienne, Clemson - The Jets have the cap space to add a veteran WR like Allen Robinson or Kenny Golladay, so use the draft to add a stellar running back.
(35) Atlanta Falcons - CB Erik Stokes, Georgia - Another Georgia player sticking around, as Stokes gives them an excellent option to develop alongside Terrell.
(36) Denver Broncos (via MIA) - CB Greg Newsome II, Northwestern - A rising star at the cornerback position, Newsome fits well into Fangio's defense.
(37) Philadelphia Eagles - WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, USC - After adding an edge rusher earlier, the Eagles add a top wideout in the Trojan's star.
(38) Cincinnati Bengals - G Deonte Brown, Alabama - The Bengals, after trading for another starting guard earlier, continue to overhaul their line.
(39) Houston Texans (via CAR) - EDGE Joseph Ossai, Texas - The Texans add some pass rushing help on the edge of their front seven with Ossai.
(40) Miami Dolphins (via DEN) - OLB Zaven Collins, Tulsa - Collins is an ideal fit for Brian Flores, as he can lineup in a handful of different spots, similar to some of the linebackers he's worked with in Miami and New England.
(41) Detroit Lions - LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame - The Lions add a rangy linebacker who can give them some much needed at the position.
(42) New York Giants - G Trey Smith, Tennessee - The Giants get an upgrade along the offensive with a powerful guard like Smith.
(43) San Francisco 49ers - DT Levi Onwuzurike, Washington - The 49ers add an elite defensive tackle to pair with Javon Kinlaw on the inside.
(44) Dallas Cowboys - OT Dillon Radunz, North Dakota State - The Cowboys went defense earlier, but add a talented offensive lineman to restock the trenches here.
(45) Jacksonville Jaguars - TE Pat Freiermuth, Penn State - If Freiermuth falls to the Jags here that'd be an absolute steal. A high-caliber tight end who can do everything needed at the position.
(46) New England Patriots - WR Terrace Marshall Jr., LSU - The Patriots, even if they add a QB, still need more weapons at WR. Marshall is an excellent one.
(47) Los Angeles Chargers - CB Ifeatu Melifonwu, Syracuse - The Chargers give new head coach Brandon Staley an elite athlete to mold into a dominant cornerback for them.
(48) Las Vegas Raiders - EDGE Joe Tryon, Washington - The Raiders bring in another talent piece of Washington 2019 defensive line. He's got a high motor along with immense upside.
TRADE! The Colts hop in front of the Dolphins to land their guy. They send a 2022 3rd round pick along with their second (2.54) here to the Cardinals in exchange for this selection and a 2022 7th round pick.
(49) Indianapolis Colts (via ARI) - EDGE Carlos Basham, Wake Forest - I think Basham could definitely go higher than this, but if he's available in the second, the Colts should jump up to land him.
(50) Miami Dolphins - S Jevon Holland, Oregon - The Dolphins add a playmaking safety to join their defense. Holland was an excellent leader on defense for the Ducks.
(51) Washington Football Team - OT Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State - Washington has gotten serviceable production from a pair of aging OT's in Moses and Lucas. They add a developmental tackle to replace them soon enough.
(52) Chicago Bears - WR Nico Collins, Michigan - The Bears could see star WR Allen Robinson walk in free agency. Adding a deep threat like Collins to pair with Mooney would be fun.
(53) Tennessee Titans - OT Jalen Mayfield, Michigan - Another Wolverine in the second round here, Mayfield would give the Titans a strong Michigan-based tackle duo with Taylor Lewan's return.
(54) Arizona Cardinals (via IND) - iOL Landon Dickerson, Alabama - A tough, hard-nosed player on the interior, Dickerson can play a handful of spots, making him a versatile addition to the Cardinals line.
(55) Pittsburgh Steelers - RB Javonte Williams, North Carolina - The Steelers add a stud running back to help revive their run game.
(56) Seattle Seahawks - EDGE Jayson Oweh, Penn State - The Seahawks could use some pass rush. Oweh's a bit raw, but can develop into a useful piece for Pete Carroll.
(57) Los Angeles Rams - LB Chazz Surratt, North Carolina - The Rams add an athletic player at the second-level to keep their defense playing elite football. With the addition of QB Matthew Stafford, the Rams could be serious contenders for the NFC title in 2021.
(58) Baltimore Ravens - EDGE Quincy Roche, Miami - Adding Roche as a rush end in Martindale's 3-4 defense would be an excellent move as Baltimore seems unlikely to retain both Yannick Ngakoue and Matt Judon.
(59) Cleveland Browns - S Richie Grant, UCF - For a school most associate with high-powered offense, the UCF secondary is loaded, and Grant would make a fine addition for the Browns.
TRADE! The Saints send 2.60 and a 2022 third to the Jets in exchange for QB Sam Darnold.
(60) New York Jets (via NO) - WR Elijah Moore, Ole Miss - He seems to be trending higher than this, but either way, the Jets substitute a backup QB for an explosive wide receiver for Zach Wilson.
(61) Buffalo Bills - OT Spencer Brown, Northern Iowa - The Bills run game needs a boost on the offensive line, and Brown's monstrous frame gives a lot of weight to that.
(62) Dallas Cowboys (via GB) - DT Jay Tufele, USC - After adding offensive line earlier in the second, the Cowboys go back to restocking their defense with talent.
(63) Kansas City Chiefs - WR D'Wayne Eskridge, Western Michigan - The Chiefs likely lose WR Sammy Watkins, but find an explosive piece here to replace him.
(64) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - EDGE Hamilcar Rashed Jr., Oregon State - Rashed has a lot of physical traits that bolster his potential. Letting Todd Bowles develop him would be ideal.

Third Round

(65) Jacksonville Jaguars - EDGE Patrick Jones II, Pittsburgh - Urban Meyer and Jags add a defensive end with a high motor to develop along with Josh Allen and K'Lavon Chaisson.
(66) New York Jets - CB Keith Taylor Jr., Washington - A long, versatile defensive back, Taylor reminds me a good deal of 49ers CB Richard Sherman in his playstyle.
(67) Houston Texans - S Talanoa Hufanga, USC - The Texans continue to overhaul their defense here, bringing in Hufanga to play a handful of roles in their backfield.
(68) Atlanta Falcons - RB Michael Carter, North Carolina - Excellent value for the Falcons here, whether or not they bring back RB Todd Gurley who played on a 1-year deal in 2020.
(69) Cincinnati Bengals - CB Paulson Adebo, Stanford - The Bengals give their defense some reinforcements with the selection of an experienced corner like Adebo.
(70) Philadelphia Eagles - LB Jabrill Cox, LSU - The Eagles add a great athlete to the second-level of their defense. Cox has shown a lot of potential as a modern backer.
(71) Denver Broncos - EDGE Janarius Robinson, Florida State - With Von Miller in a bit of hot water at the moment, Denver make want to add a pass rusher to develop just in case.
(72) Detroit Lions - S Andre Cisco, Syracuse - Detroit's safety play was poor last year. Adding a high potential player like Cisco could be a good move for the rebuilding Lions.
(73) Carolina Panthers - TE Hunter Long, Boston College - Welcome to the board, Carolina! After making a splash trade for QB Deshaun Watson, the Panthers give him another weapon at tight end. Long impressed during the Senior Bowl.
(74) Washington Football Team - LB Cameron McGrone, Michigan - McGrone has some inconsistency to his play, but offers a lot of upside for someone who can straighten him out.
(75) Dallas Cowboys - EDGE Victor Dimukeje, Duke - The Cowboys take a chance on Dimukeje here to help get after opposing QB's more frequently.
(76) New York Giants - WR Rondale Moore, Purdue - I'd anticipate Golden Tate being a cap cut, and if so, Moore would be an explosive slot weapon to replace him.
(77) New England Patriots - PICK FORFEITED
(78) Los Angeles Chargers - EDGE Dayo Odeyingbo, Vanderbilt - A craft, versatile edge rusher, he'd project as an OLB in Staley defense with the Chargers.
(79) Minnesota Vikings - DT Alim McNeill, North Carolina State - The Vikings add an explosive 3-technique to help get their defense turned around in a hurry.
(80) Arizona Cardinals - CB Shaun Wade, Ohio State - Wade was overhyped early on, but would fit well in the Cardinals defense, developing as a future replacement for Patrick Peterson.
(81) Las Vegas Raiders - S Richard Lecounte, Georgia - The Raiders add an experienced safety on the back end who can help them slow down divisional offenses led by Mahomes and Herbert.
(82) Denver Broncos - OT Liam Eichenberg, Notre Dame - The Broncos stop a bit of a slide here for Eichenberg. He has the ability to play RT or on the inside for Denver.
(83) Washington Football Team - S Joshuah Bledsoe, Missouri - An underrated player at the position, Bledsoe has a ton of versatility and would fit very well reinforcing Washington's already stellar defense.
(84) Chicago Bears - QB Kyle Trask, Florida - The Bears don't ignore the QB position entirely, as they take a later-than-expected flier on Trask. He was very good for Florida.
(85) Indianapolis Colts - CB Elijah Molden, Washington - Not the biggest need on the Colts roster, but they should have the cap to plug holes in free agency and pick better players, like Molden, here.
(86) Tennessee Titans - WR Dyami Brown, North Carolina - The Titans do have a stud WR in A.J. Brown, but with Corey Davis likely landing big money elsewhere, adding another player here is important.
(87) New York Jets (via SEA) - EDGE Payton Turner, Houston - A versatile pass rusher who can fit either a 4-3 or 3-4. Whatever system Saleh installs, Turner should find a home quickly.
(88) Las Vegas Raiders (via PIT) - LB Dylan Moses, Alabama - Once considered a potential top-10 pick, Moses has fallen off a bit, but the Raiders take a chance on him nonetheless.
(89) Detroit Lions (via LAR) - WR Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State - Detroit should probably consider hitting the wide receiver position multiple times in the draft. The cabinet is empty there.
(90) Cleveland Browns - LB Ventrell Miller, Florida - The Browns linebackers are a major weak spot. If Cleveland wants to contend for the division, adding some speed there in Miller would help.
(91) Minnesota Vikings (via BAL) - S Paris Ford, Pittsburgh - With S Anthony Harris likely headed elsewhere in free agency, the Vikings take a chance on the hard-hitting ford as a replacement.
(92) Cleveland Browns - EDGE Rashad Weaver, Pittsburgh - Back-to-back selections of Pitt Panthers here, Rashad is an excellent pass rusher to add into the mix.
(93) Green Bay Packers - DT Tommy Togiai, Ohio State - The Packers add some beef to the inside of their defense, hoping to solidify a shaky group outside of DT Kenny Clark.
(94) Buffalo Bills - iOL Josh Myers, Ohio State - The Bills grab a starting caliber lineman here in Myers, who should help bolster the interior of their offensive line and give a boost to their run game.
(95) Kansas City Chiefs - OT Jackson Carmen, Clemson - The Chiefs need another offensive tackle to throw into the mix, as neither Eric Fisher nor Mitchell Schwartz figure to be around for too much longer.
(96) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - DT Marvin Wilson, Florida State - While Wilson didn't dominant as many expected him to in 2020, perhaps slotting him alongside Vita Vea will free up mismatches for him.
Compensatory Selections
(97) Los Angeles Chargers - G Quinn Meinerz, Wisconsin-Whitewater - Meinrez blew up the Senior Bowl, and could easily land as a top-100 prospect after that showing. LAC is a good fit here.
(98) Philadelphia Eagles - TE Brevin Jordan, Miami - With Zach Ertz and Philadelphia likely parting ways soon enough, Jordan gives the Eagles a gadget replacement in the passing game.
(99) Dallas Cowboys - CB Asante Samuel Jr., Florida State - Another corner for Dallas as they really could use two strong selections to help rebuild the position. Samuel excels in the slot.
(100) New Orleans Saints - WR Amari Rodgers, Clemson - The Saints add the best player on the board here for me, an exceptional wide out who will pair well with Michael Thomas.
(101) Tennessee Titans - DT Marlon Tuipulotu, USC - The Titans add another body to their defensive front, in hopes that Marlon and Simmons can become a dominant duo inside.
(102) Los Angeles Rams - WR Josh Imatorbhebhe, Illinois - One of the most underrated wide outs in the class, due to the lack of offensive savvy around him. Imatorbhebhe reminds me of Kenny Golladay, so pairing him with new Rams QB Matthew Stafford out to be fun.
(103) Minnesota Vikings - EDGE Jordan Smith, UAB - A long, toolsy pass rusher to develop into a sidekick for Danielle Hunter is the pick here for Mike Zimmer and co.
(104) San Francisco 49ers - OT Walker Little, Stanford - I'm certain the 49ers will bring back LT Trent Williams, but how much longer does he really have? Meanwhile, Little can play guard before taking over at left tackle soon enough.
(105) Los Angeles Rams - EDGE Shaka Toney, Penn State - Toney has good burst off the edge and with OLB Leonard Floyd headed towards the market, the Rams could stand to add some pass rushers.
(106) New Orleans Saints - RB Trey Sermon, Ohio State - With a cap crunch, paying $4 million for Latavius Murray may be a luxury the Saints cannot afford. Cutting him and drafting Sermon can offset that.

Fourth Round

Just a reminder, but almost half of all fourth-round selections (46%) are no longer on the roster after two years in their career, so don't take these picks too seriously, as this is also where teams start to diverge from needs a bit more and go best available. The aim is rotational players who might be contributors by their 3rd year with the franchise. If you have a significant need, fill it in free agency, not the day three of the draft. If you're banking on your team to find a starter here at a key position, you're already kind of screwed. Really I'm less focused on needs as opposed to getting good value here. Am trying to avoid doubling up on prospects, but sometimes teams actually do that.
(107) Jacksonville Jaguars - DT Tyler Shelvin, LSU (108) New York Jets - G David Moore, Grambling State (109) Atlanta Falcons - S Hamsah Nasirildeen, Florida State (110) Houston Texans - QB Jaime Newman, Georgia - The Texans don't draft a QB in the first, but do take a chance on Newman's upside to develop behind Bridgewater.
(111) Cleveland Browns - WR Seth Williams, Auburn (112) Cincinnati Bengals - S Jamien Sherwood, Auburn (113) Detroit Lions - EDGE Ronnie Perkins, Oklahoma (114) Carolina Panthers - LB Baron Browning, Ohio State (115) Denver Broncos - RB Jermar Jefferson, Oregon State - With Lindsay hitting the market, maybe the Broncos don't bring him back and Jefferson as a change of pace back behind Gordon instead.
(116) Dallas Cowboys - TE Tommy Tremble, Notre Dame (117) New York Giants - RB Rhamondre Stevenson, Oklahoma - An excellent backup for Saquon Barkley if the Giants don't re-sign Wayne Gallman. (118) San Francisco 49ers - S James Wiggins, Cincinnati (119) Los Angeles Chargers - RB Demetric Falcon, UCLA (120) Minnesota Vikings - WR Dazz Newsome, North Carolina
(121) New England Patriots - WR Whop Philyor, Indiana (122) Las Vegas Raiders - G Sadarius Hutcherson, South Carolina (123) Houston Texans - WR Marlon Williams, UCF (124) Miami Dolphins - DT Jaylen Twyman, Pittsburgh (125) Jacksonville Jaguars - CB Israel Mukuamu, South Carolina - The Jags had a good year out of Sidney Jones, but still could use an intriguing developmental option like Mukuamu behind him.
(126) Minnesota Vikings - LB Pete Werner, Ohio State (127) Tennessee Titans - G Ben Cleveland, Georgia (128) Indianapolis Colts - WR Jaelon Darden, North Texas (129) Pittsburgh Steelers - CB Kary Vincent Jr., LSU - The Steelers get some excellent value here, as I think Vincent is one of the top slot corners in the draft. Could easily replace Hilton. (130) Seattle Seahawks - CB Shakur Brown, Michigan State
(131) Jacksonville Jaguars - LB Monty Rice, Georgia (132) Baltimore Ravens - iOL Trey Hill, Georgia (133) Cleveland Browns - TE Cary Angeline, North Carolina State (134) New Orleans Saints - EDGE Tarron Jackson, Coastal Carolina - With Trey Hendrickson likely departing and Marcus Davenport still yet to hit double-digit sacks, the Saints may look to add another piece to develop here. (135) Minnesota Vikings - RB Khalil Herbert, Virginia Tech
(136) Green Bay Packers - OT James Hudson, Cincinnati (137) Kansas City Chiefs - LB Anthony Hines III, Texas A&M - A quick linebacker, he'd fit nicely into the Chiefs defense alongside Willie Gay and others. (138) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - QB Davis Mills, Stanford (139) New England Patriots - EDGE Adetokunbo Ogundeji, Notre Dame (140) Dallas Cowboys - S Ar'Darius Washington, TCU
(141) Los Angeles Rams - TE Tre McKitty, Georgia (142) Pittsburgh Steelers - DT Darius Stills, West Virginia (143) Green Bay Packers - RB Kylin Hill, Mississippi State - With Aaron Jones hitting the market, the Packers may look for another back to add to their rotation. Hill would be a great addition. (144) Kansas City Chiefs - CB Roger McCreary, Auburn (145) New England Patriots - OT Cordell Volson, North Dakota State

Fifth Round

(146) Jacksonville Jaguars - OT Brady Christensen, BYU (147) New York Jets - DL Brenton Cox, Florida (148) Houston Texans - EDGE Jonathan Cooper, Ohio State (149) Atlanta Falcons - EDGE Kingsley Enagbare, South Carolina - PFF actually lists Enagbare as a top-100 player on their latest big board, which, if accurate, would be tremendous value. (150) Cincinnati Bengals - WR Anthony Schwartz, Auburn
(151) Philadelphia Eagles - CB Robert Rochell, Central Arkansas - Big fan of Rochell's a potential starter down the road. Would fit well with Marcus Gannon calling the defense. (152) Carolina Panthers - G Kendrick Green, Illinois (153) Denver Broncos - QB Kellen Mond, Texas A&M (154) Detroit Lions - CB Kelvin Joseph, Kentucky (155) New York Jets - S Caden Sterns, Texas
(156) San Francisco 49ers - CB Camryn Bynum, California (157) Philadelphia Eagles - OT Adrian Ealy, Oklahoma (158) Minnesota Vikings - CB Rodarius Williams, Oklahoma State (159) New England Patriots - DT Milton Williams, Louisiana Tech (160) Los Angeles Chargers - WR Simi Fehoko, Stanford
(161) Arizona Cardinals - RB Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State - He'd be an excellent fit in the Cardinals backfield, especially if Kenyan Drake does not return. (162) Buffalo Bills - CB Tay Gowan, UCF (163) Las Vegas Raiders - QB Feleipe Franks, Arkansas (164) Washington Football Team - WR Jonathan Adams Jr., Arkansas State (165) Chicago Bears - CB D.J. Daniel, Georgia
(166) Indianapolis Colts - OT Brendan Jaimes, Nebraska (167) Tennessee Titans - OLB Charles Snowden, Virginia (168) Seattle Seahawks - OT Dan Moore Jr., Texas A&M (169) Baltimore Ravens - QB Sam Ehlinger, Texas - Unless the Ravens are certain that Trace McSorley is their backup QB, they may want to look at adding Ehlinger behind Lamar. (170) Cleveland Browns - LB Tony Fields II, West Virginia
(171) Jacksonville Jaguars - WR Tamorrion Terry, Florida State (172) Minnesota Vikings - QB Ian Book, Notre Dame (173) San Francisco 49ers - iOL Drake Jackson, Kentucky (174) Green Bay Packers - CB Ambry Thomas, Michigan (175) Buffalo Bills - S Reed Blankenship, Middle Tennessee State
(176) Kansas City Chiefs - EDGE Malcolm Koonce, Buffalo (177) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - LB Garrett Wallow, Texas Christian (178) Green Bay Packers - S Tyree Gillespie, Missouri (179) Atlanta Falcons - C James Empey, BYU - The Falcons find themselves a quality interior lineman who could use a year to develop before getting in the mix to replace Alex Mack down the road. (180) Dallas Cowboys - WR Josh Palmer, Tennessee
(181) Baltimore Ravens - S Qwynterrio Cole, Alcorn State (182) San Francisco 49ers - WR Marquez Stevenson, Houston (183) Kansas City Chiefs - RB Pooka Williams, Kansas

Sixth Round

(184) Tennessee Titans - QB Shane Buechele, Texas (185) New York Jets - LB Paddy Fisher, Northwestern (186) Atlanta Falcons - G Aaron Banks, Notre Dame - Love the value here for the Falcons, and if they do have to cut James Carpenter, Banks could be a useful piece. (187) Houston Texans - iOL Jack Anderson, Texas Tech (188) Philadelphia Eagles - S JaCoby Stevens, LSU (189) Cincinnati Bengals - DT Khryis Tonga, BYU (190) Denver Broncos - DT Bobby Brown III, Texas A&M
(191) Dallas Cowboys - G Josh Sills, Oklahoma State (192) Carolina Panthers - DT Carlo Kemp, Michigan (193) San Francisco 49ers - EDGE Daelin Hayes - The 49ers showed a good deal of interest in Hayes at the Senior Bowl per reports. He'd be a nice depth option on the edge. (194) New England Patriots - CB Benjamin St.-Juste, Minnesota (195) New York Giants - CB Thomas Graham Jr., Oregon
(196) New England Patriots - G Tristen Hoge, BYU (197) Los Angeles Chargers - S Eric Burrell, Wisconsin (198) Minnesota Vikings - OT Alex Himmelman, Illinois State (199) Las Vegas Raiders - PICK FORFEITED (200) New York Giants - LB K.J. Britt, Auburn
(201) Houston Texans - DL Cameron Sample, Tulane (202) Las Vegas Raiders - WR Austin Watkins, UAB (203) Chicago Bears - OT Bryce Matthews, Ole Miss (204) Los Angeles Chargers - WR Isaiah McKoy, Kent State (205) Indianapolis Colts - WR Damon Hazelton, Missouri - This stretch of wide receivers looks like solid value, especially Hazelton in Reich's offense.
(206) Miami Dolphins - TE Kenny Yeboah, Ole Miss - Yeboah got to work with Miami's coaching staff at the Senior Bowl, so I'd imagine they have a good feel for his use. (207) Seattle Seahawks - DT Mustafa Johnson, Colorado (208) Los Angeles Rams - OT Robert Hainsey, Notre Dame (209) Baltimore Ravens - G Robert Jones, Middle Tennessee State (210) Cleveland Browns - CB Trill Williams, Syracuse
(211) Houston Texans - RB Jaret Patterson, Buffalo (212) Buffalo Bills - RB Elijah Mitchell, Louisiana (213) Green Bay Packers - WR Cade Johnson, South Dakota State (214) Pittsburgh Steelers - C Jimmy Morrissey, Pittsburgh (215) Tennessee Titans - S Aashari Crosswell, Arizona State
(216) Atlanta Falcons - LB Derrick Barnes, Purdue (217) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - TE Quintin Morris, Bowling Green (218) Atlanta Falcons - OT Greg Eiland, Mississippi State (219) Philadelphia Eagles - RB Javian Hawkins, Louisville (220) Chicago Bears - EDGE Chris Rumph Jr., Duke
(221) Green Bay Packers - DE William King-Bradley, Baylor (222) Chicago Bears - S Shawn Davis, Florida (223) Minnesota Vikings - G Ben Brown, Ole Miss (224) Philadelphia Eagles - LB Grant Stuard, Houston

Seventh Round

(225) Jacksonville Jaguars - DT Malik Herring, Georgia (226) San Francisco 49ers - TE Noah Gray, Duke (227) Houston Texans - CB Tre Brown, Oklahoma (228) Chicago Bears - LB Justin Hilliard, Ohio State (229) Cincinnati Bengals - EDGE Elerson Smith, Northern Iowa (230) Philadelphia Eagles - WR Ben Skowronek, Northwestern
(231) Cincinnati Bengals - DT TaQuon Graham, Texas (232) Buffalo Bills - S Divine Deablo, Virginia Tech (233) Denver Broncos - S Damar Hamlin, Pittsburgh (234) Green Bay Packers - LB Riley Cole, South Alabama (235) Denver Broncos - WR Cornell Powell, Clemson
(236) San Francisco 49ers - WR Frank Darby, Arizona State (237) Los Angeles Chargers - DB Darrin Hall, San Diego State (238) Minnesota Vikings - WR Trevon Grimes, Florida (239) New England Patriots - DE Wyatt Hubert, Kansas State (240) Arizona Cardinals - OT Jaylon Moore, Western Michigan
(241) Washington Football Team - G Jake Curhan, California (242) Pittsburgh Steelers - CB Bryan Mills, North Carolina Central (243) Washington Football Team - RB Chris Evans, Michigan (244) Las Vegas Raiders - CB Mark Webb, Georgia (245) Indianapolis Colts - RB Larry Roundtree, Missouri
(246) Jacksonville Jaguars - DT Forrest Merrill, Arkansas State (247) New York Jets - WR Tre Walker, (248) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - EDGE Joshua Kaindoh, Florida State (249) Los Angeles Rams - CB Bryce Thompson, Tennessee (250) Cleveland Browns - QB Brady White, Memphis
(251) Denver Broncos - EDGE Patrick Johnson, Tulane (252) New Orleans Saints - PICK FORFEITED (253) Green Bay Packers - DT Jack Heflin, Northern Illinois (254) Cleveland Browns - CB Nahshon Wright, Oregon State (255) Kansas City Chiefs - DT Kobie Whiteside, Missouri (256) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - WR Desmond Fitzpatrick, Louisville
You'll notice there are no special teams listed...mostly because I don't have a clue who needs a K/P/LS. That actually might be something useful to mention if you're team really needs someone.
Feel free to comment...I won't really be looking at them until next week, as I've spent too much time putting this together and now I need a break from this website. Just don't be a d*** is all I ask. It's shockingly hard for some people when it comes to internet mock drafts. Did this for fun, hope you had fun reading it.

Before every Bills’ game I spend some time, probably too much time, digging into how the Bills’ roster stacks up against their opponent’s. While doing this I specifically look at 5 matchups; Bills’ Pass Offense vs. Opponent’s Pass Defense, Bills’ Rush Offense vs. Opponent’s Rush Defense, Bills’ Pass Defense vs. Opponent’s Pass Offense, Bills’ Rush Defense vs. Opponent’s Rush Offense, Bills’ Special Teams vs. Opponent’s Special Teams. After doing all of this I try to come up with reasons “Why We Will Lose” and “Why We Will Win” ultimately leading to a prediction. Below I present 2020’s 19th iteration of this analysis for the Bills’ upcoming AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME in Kansas City. Included is a scale to rank the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage).
NOTE: If you have followed this series all season long then you are well aware that these playoff posts are significantly longer. The increased length is intended to provide more details on the Bills’ opponent, including basic breakdowns of their offensive and defensive philosophies. If this is your first time reading this post and/or you are a Chiefs’ fan, feedback is always welcome!
Bills’ Passing Offense vs. Chiefs’ Passing Defense
In 2020 the Buffalo Bills have gone from “Lovable Losers” to one of the most feared franchises in the NFL. A team which just last season was considered one built on a foundation of a fearsome defense and a mobile Quarterback has undergone a shift in perception rarely seen in the NFL. Yes, that defense is still scary (More on that later) and yes, the man under Center can still run (Also more on that later) but the evolution of two players in particular have altered the way that opposing teams, and their fans, view the Buffalo Bills. The first some may consider the Bills’ 2020 1st round pick and since arriving in Buffalo has done nothing less than stake his claim as one of, if not the, best WRs in the NFL, Stefon Diggs. Diggs has beaten anyone and everyone in front of him collecting 6+ catches in 17 out of his 18 games totaling 141 catches for 1770 yards and 10 TDs. These gaudy statistics are just the tangible portion of what Diggs has brought to the Bills while the intangible is derived from his mere presence, which has ignited a swagger not seen in Buffalo since, well, ever. Throwing him the ball is a man that has been analyzed and critiqued ad nauseum, the newest member of the Fraternity of Franchise QBs, Joshua Patrick Allen. At 5,564 yards and 50 TDs Allen has entrenched himself in the top tier of QBs, a set of players that defensive coordinators look to contain as opposed to stopping entirely and though few achieve this level of NFL success note that doing so does not preclude them from the occasional rough stretch.
And that is exactly what happened to Josh Allen during the 4-game stretch from Week 5 to Week 8. In that span Allen, who would finish the regular season with a Passer Rating (PR) of 107.2, had a PR of just 79.2. This included a game against the Bills’ AFC Championship Game opponent, the Kansas City Chiefs, where Allen had his worst Completion % of the season (51.9%) and his second lowest PR (73.4). Many have pondered what the root cause(s) of these struggles were for a QB who now will likely finish Top-3 in MVP voting, and two causes tend to be consistently repeated. The first of these, the weather, can easily be debunked. Against the Chiefs Josh Allen’s adjusted completion % (Less Drops) was 56.0% while Patrick Mahomes who, played in the same weather, had an adjusted completion % of 91.3%. It’s hard to fathom that the weather was such a detriment to only one QB that it resulted in him being 35.3% less “accurate” than the other. The second is a bit harder to debunk and is actually backed by some “expert” testimony. Just 15 days earlier in a game against Las Vegas, Allen would be hit awkwardly while attempting to extend a play and suffer an injury to his non-dominant (left) shoulder resulting in what many believe to have been a grade 1 AC Joint sprain. An injury which takes between 4-6 weeks to heal fits the timeline of Allen’s 4 weeks of below average QB play and is even propped up by 3-time Pro Bowl QB Matt Hasselback agreeing that such an injury makes it more difficult for a Quarterback to deliver a pass to his target accurately. Out of these two I find the injury much more plausible but after going back and watching the Chiefs @ Bills’ game I find it hard to believe either of these were the primary reason for the Chiefs domination of the Bills’ passing attack. With that in mind the best explanation, and what I believe to be the most likely, is that Chiefs’ DC Steve Spagnuolo simply had a brilliant game plan which the Chiefs executed perfectly ultimately slowing down the air attack of the Buffalo Bills.
The Chiefs plan was simple yet concise, blitz from all different angles while disguising coverage pre-snap. They would finish the game with 14 blitzes sending a total of 26 blitzers, 12 from LBs (Hitchens, Wilson, & Niemann), 3 from CBs (Fenton & Breeland), and 11 from Safeties (Mathieu & Sorensen). This constant shift in the level extra pass rushers were coming from often left the Bills’ OL scrambling to recover resulting in their QB being pressured on a season high 35.5% of dropbacks (His season average is 20.7%). Simultaneously the Chiefs were mixing Man and Zone coverage schemes which often included a deep spy that was keying off Josh Allen’s eyes. Allowing the Chiefs to accomplish this was a secondary stacked with “Jack-Of-All-Trades” CBs and one of the better safety trios, yes trios, in the NFL championed by a possible future HOF. Charvarius Ward, Bashaud Breeland, Rashad Fenton, and L’Jarius Sneed are all capable of covering the X, Y, or Z allowing the Chiefs to conceal their coverages and trade off assignments at will. Breeland the most notorious and proficient of the three works with hands on his assignment in order to control their movement and was flagged a total of 9 times this season, 3 of which came against the Bills. Behind them is a trio of Safeties that make the entire defense click; Daniel Sorensen, Tyrann Mathieu, and Juan Thornhill, who is primarily used in Nickel sets which the Chiefs run north of 60% of the time. Sorensen is as close as you can get to a modern-day John Lynch, a hard-hitting safety with ball skills that allow him to effectively play Center Field on deep passes. Mathieu is the afore mentioned HOF hopeful and can play anywhere from the LOS to a deep prevent position. One of the most feared defenders in all of football expect the Honey Badger to spy Josh Allen more than any other player on the Chiefs and make a few highlight reel plays at Arrowhead Sunday night.
Ultimately this matchup comes down to two things, can the Bills OL recognize the blitz pre-snap and can the Bills’ receivers find holes in the defense. From the perspective of the OL they are vastly improved since their last matchup with the Chiefs with Ike Boettger replacing Brian Winters at LG and Jon Feliciano returning from injury to man the RG position. These two bring a physicality to the OL which was surely lacking prior to their arrival. At the receiver position there is a bit more concern with Gabe Davis a DNP and both Cole Beasley & Stefon Diggs limited as of Thursday night’s injury report. It is a near certainty that both Beasley and Diggs will see the field Sunday night, but the possible loss of Gabe Davis looms large. The good news for Bills’ fans is that this is the exact reason the Bills went out and got Kenny Stills so if Gabe Davis is truly a no go expect to see Stills for the first time in a Bills’ uniform. There are two more dark horse candidates for a big game through the air, WR Isaiah McKenzie and TE Dawson Knox. McKenzie has played just 12 snaps so far throughout the playoffs but is due for a push pass or two especially against a blitz heavy team like the Chiefs. As for Dawson Knox his size and athleticism may be too much for the Chiefs LBs to handle which would then require Daniel Sorensen to come down into coverage. This would keep Sorensen out of the box and free up more underneath routes for the Bills. As with every week it comes down to individual matchups and whoever wins theirs will win this one. P.S. Don’t forget about John “Smoke” Brown.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Offense vs. Chiefs’ Rushing Defense
While the Passing Game for the Bills has evolved into one of the best in the NFL the running game has regressed to the bottom tier of the league. This ineptitude has reached new depths with the Bills’ Running Backs combining for just 71 rushing yards (Josh Allen has 57) over the first two games of the playoffs. For context, all Non-Bills’ Playoff games have featured at least one player with 75+ rushing yards. Bills Mafia has been aware of these struggles since early in the season and exorcised their demons by lighting into OC Brian Daboll after he “excessively” ran the ball against the Colts. The following week, against the Ravens, Daboll flipped the script handing the ball off just 1 time in the first half and 9 times total to RBs who combined for a Y/A of just 3.2. It is abundantly clear to not just the Buffalo Bills but every other team in the NFL that this Bills’ team is a pass first team however, some semblance of balance will be needed if they are to reach the full potential necessary to chase down the Lombardi trophy.
Dependent on the gameplan which the Chiefs employ, running the ball could be an important part of the Bills’ offense on Sunday night. If the Chiefs do force the issue the Bills will be contending with the 19th ranked team in Y/A that just gave up over 5.0 Y/A against the Browns in the Divisional round. Of course that’s a Browns’ team that has both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt who were running behind one of the best run blocking OLs (#6 Adjusted Line Yards) in the NFL however, the Browns success against the Chiefs does not necessitate similar results for the Bills’ Devin Singletary and T.J. Yeldon who are running behind an inferior run blocking OL (#15 Adjusted Line Yards). Making it even more unlikely that the Bills could find success with a similar style of play is that most of the Browns’ success came when running the ball between the tackles. On 19 RB carries the Browns had 7 that went for 5+ yards 5 of which came when attacking this area. This relied heavily on the Browns interior line controlling the opposing DTs allowing the runners to get to the second level.
There is a further problem with this plan of attack though and he goes by the name of Chirs Jones. The massive 5-year vet drafted in the 2nd round out of Mississippi St. is a rare talent in the NFL, a game wrecker that can alter the outcome of any week. When talking about the best DTs in the NFL you will often hear names like Aaron Donald, Fletcher Cox, and Cameron Heyward but outside of Donald, there may be no one better at the position than Chris Jones. For his massive frame, 6’6” 310lb, Jones possesses incredible quickness that provides him with a tool bag of moves that range from outright bull rushes to tight swim moves. Jones is a pass rush expert that often finds his way into the lap of opposing QBs but his consistency in disrupting the run is what makes him one of the best all-around defenders in football. A disruptive bowling ball next to him comes in the form of NT Derrick Nnadi who I would doubt exceeds 50% of the defensive snaps this week with the Chiefs likely electing to go lighter in an effort to further disrupt the Bills’ passing attack. This means you should expect to see significantly more of the Chiefs primary 3-man DE rotation in Tershawn Wharton, Frank Clark, and Tanoh Kpassagnon. Like their comrades in the secondary each of these 3 players can play multiple positions provided by their quickness to set the edge and the size and strength to stuff the middle making them nightmare matchups for contending offensive linemen.
This all leads to the consensus that whether it be Devin Singletary, T.J. Yeldon, Antonio Williams, Devonta Freeman, or even Reggie Gilliam the Bills will struggle to move the ball on the ground consistently, but they do have one X-Factor. That man is their rumbling bumbling 6’5” 240lb buffalo of a man, quarterback Josh Allen. In the last game against Kansas City Allen was able to account for 42 rushing yards on 8 carries often finding a corner to run to and beating the Chiefs LBs to the spot. The Chiefs have 3 good ones in Anthony Hitchens, Damien Wilson, and Ben Niemann who are all talented football players with large frames that allow them to handle extra blockers but that comes with a limitation to speed and quickness over the middle. The Bills will need to occasionally find success on the ground if they want to win the Time of Possession battle and all signs point to any success in the matter only available via one avenue, the legs of #17.
EDGE: Chiefs 👏 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Passing Defense vs. Chiefs’ Passing Offense
The Buffalo Bills play one of the most difficult defensive schemes to master in all of football, the Palms Defense. At a very high level this Zone scheme is built on the coverage units’ ability to communicate and trade off players as they get deeper into their routes. Its effectiveness begins with its pre-snap deceit which some Quarterbacks will find difficult to identify but culminates post-snap where it is nearly impossible to determine where the reads and tradeoffs will occur. It is the defensive equivalent of the Zone-Read offense and flips the advantage to favor the defense. This scheme has been utilized since Sean McDermott became the head coach of the Bills in 2017 and has resulted in them finishing no lower in Passer Rating (PR) against than 6th since that point in time. Even the 2020 Buffalo Bills would finish the season 5th overall with a PR against of 86.9 which early in the season seemed like an impossible feat.
Up until the Chiefs’ game the Bills were being torched through the air with a PR against of 103.6. If that were to have continued for the entire 2020 campaign the Bills would have finished 29th in the NFL in this statistic. This reached its crescendo against the Chiefs where despite bailing out to stop the pass, and then getting gashed on the ground, the Bills still managed to give up a PR of 128.4. There was clearly something wrong with a passing defense that by all measures had regressed as much or more so than the Bills’ QB had progressed, so I sought out to determine what the issue was. After a quick re-watch of the Chiefs’ game I came to find that the Palms defense was breaking down repeatedly with no clearer example than Travis Kelce’s second touchdown reception. I won’t rehash the entire analysis (If interested read the beginning of Bills’ Passing Defense here) but the tradeoffs necessitated by Palms were failing at nearly every turn. Something happened after the Chiefs game though, and the Bills began to find a rhythm. In fact, they found such a rhythm that through the remainder of the season they would hold opposing teams to a PR of just 72.6 and have continued that dominance in the playoffs allowing one of just 78.9. This Bills’ team that spent the early part of the 2020 season struggling to stop inferior opponents from moving the ball through the air and is now the best remaining team at stopping it which could come in handy with the remaining playoff QBs being Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and…
Patrick Mahomes. For the sake of this post I’m ignoring the “Will He, Won’t He” on whether or not he will play because I am fairly confident “He Will”. So, what is left to be said about Patrick Mahomes? Over the first few seasons of his career he owns just about every record a QB can own as well as an MVP award, a Lombardi Trophy, and a Super Bowl MVP. My definition of a “Gunslinger” Mahomes is willing to attempt any throw on the football field and can make any of those throws. As much as, if not more so than, Josh Allen, Mahomes’ excels when he breaks the pocket and the play falls apart leaving him to ad-lib with a slew of weapons and a well-coached offense that is able to take advantage of recovering defenders. Always the best player on the field, when Mahomes is on there is almost no stopping him and frankly, when he is off it’s still nearly impossible. The recipe for beating him is simply stated, and difficult to execute, the 1 or 2 throws a game where he misses his target, must be converted into turnovers.
This is in no way meant as a slight to Mahomes however, he has the perfect players around him that allow him to execute his game as he desires. On the one hand is Travis Kelce who may go down in history as the greatest TE to ever play the position and is, in my opinion, the best receiving threat to ever do it. In 2020 Kelce played just 15 games but broke the record for receiving yards by a TE with 1416 while raking in 105 catches and 11 TDs. The Bills attempt to limit him by alternating their LBs and Safeties onto him which results in the Bills spending more time in Big Nickel pushing players like Siran Neal onto the field more often. Next up is the man known as “Cheetah”, Tyreek Hill. Hill is one of the more disrespected on field talents in the NFL and statistically is right there with players like Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, and DeAndre Hopkins. Better yet, Hill fits Mahomes in the same way Diggs fits Allen except as more of a home run threat that is going to consistently test Micah Hyde’s prowess as one of the best prevent safeties in the NFL. Outside of Hill and Kelce there are a ton of other weapons for this passing game to utilize. The speedy Mecole Hardman, the “Real Deal” Demarcus Robinson, and the Bills’ previous #4 overall pick Sammy Watkins. Pick your poison against this team but regardless the Bills’ CBs and especially their Safeties will have their hands full Sunday night.
EDGE: Chiefs 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Defense vs. Chiefs’ Rushing Offense
The Bills’ rushing defense is coming off a game in which they may not have shut down the Ravens’ vaunted rushing attack, but they surely contained it. This was a Ravens’ team that led the NFL in Rushing Y/G at 191.2 and Y/A at 5.5 and managed just 150 yards at 4.7 Y/A against the Bills. How was Buffalo able to do this? Defensive Coordinator Leslie Frazier challenged the Ravens to beat them through the air by running 3 LB sets on 41% of snaps and bringing down one of Jordan Poyer or Micah Hyde to stack the box with 7 or 8 players on nearly every play. This, often, left the Bills’ DBs matched up in a rare version of single coverage which the Bills won on a consistent basis. An eye-opening game for the Bills and one that they won because of scheme, a scheme they can’t afford to run against the Chiefs.
The Chiefs are more than competent of moving the ball on the ground, when at full health. Rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire (CEH) burst onto the scene early in 2020 and was on pace to finish with just around 1000 rushing yards before suffering a substantial high-ankle sprain against the Saints on December 20th. Sidelined now for just over 1 month CEH is bordering on healthy enough to play with the average recovery time between 4-6 weeks. If CEH cannot suit up the likely replacement for him is not Le’Veon Bell (Who is now dealing with a knee injury) but instead 3rd year back Darrel Williams. In the Chiefs’ 1st playoff game against the Browns Williams would finish with 13 carries to Bells’ 2. Primarily a deep depth player Williams is getting more work now than he has at any other point in his professional career. Dynamic enough a player in his Senior season at LSU, with 1151 yards and 9 TDs on 168 touches, the Chiefs took a flyer on him picking him up as an undrafted rookie in 2018. A 1-cut back that finishes downhill Williams who is listed at 5’11” 224lb looks much smaller but plays like a bruiser. As for the previously mentioned Le’Veon Bell, he has exceeded 35% of offensive snaps just once since joining the Chiefs and saw a season low of 16% in the first round of the playoffs. I postured it when it happened but with the Bills in the mix for Bell earlier in the season is it possible the Chiefs were keeping him away from a team they could see in the AFC Championship game? Something to think about.
In front of whoever is running the ball is an offensive line, that like the Bills, looks a little different from the last time these two teams faced off. At Center the Chiefs elected to start veteran Daniel Kilgore over presumptive starter Austin Reiter. Reiter would eventually regain his starting role in Week 9 and will get the start against the Bills on Sunday. At RT Mitchell Schwartz started the game against Buffalo but after suffering a back injury early in that game has now been replaced by ex-Bucs, Chargers, Panthers, Rams, Vikings, and Giants tackle Mike Remmers. The other 3 positions are held by men that Bills saw in their last matchup. Andre Wylie (RG), an undrafted free agent from 2018, and Nick Allegretti (LG), a 7th round pick in 2019, man the guard positions where they combine to be roughly 630 pounds and are capable of pushing the DTs in front of them back into opposing LBs. The OL is topped off by its headliner, Left Tackle, Eric Fisher who earned his second Pro Bowl nod this season and has been one of the more consistent linemen in the NFL over his 8-year career which started with him being the #1 overall pick in 2013. Fisher has incredibly quick feet and long arms which will provide him an advantage over whichever pass rusher lines up over him.
I would not be surprised in the least if the Bills employ the same defensive scheme they did against the Chiefs in their first matchup during the AFC Championship game. Forcing the Chiefs to run the ball at a defense which now includes the most underrated player in all the NFL, Matt Milano, should play right into Buffalo’s hands. If the Chiefs take the bait and elect to go this route it should surprise everyone if they exceed their 221 rushing yards from the previous matchup. The Bills’ Front 7 has vastly improved since that matchup and should see new faces, including Harrison Phillips, making plays up front. Expect a light lineup at times during the game meaning more Ed Oliver and Quinton Jefferson as the Bills’ attempt to pressure Mahomes and force the Chiefs to run up the middle. This puts heavy reliance on the Bills’ LBs to clean up the scraps which via dramatic improvement, Tremaine Edmunds looks more capable of now than at any other point in the season. One player that goes un-talked about way more than he should is Safety Jordan Poyer. A massive Pro Bowl snub, Poyer is playing with a chip on his shoulder and under the bright lights with a chance to prove why he is not just one of the best in the AFC but the entire NFL, expect a big game from him and keep your eyes peeled for his use of the “Peanut Punch”.
EDGE: Chiefs 👏 👏
Bills’ Special Teams vs. Chiefs’ Special Teams
Coming into the playoffs the Buffalo Bills were widely considered to have one of the best ST units in the entire NFL, which has been tested through 2 weeks. In the Wildcard round the Buffalo Bills played the Indianapolis Colts whose Special Teams consisted of above average return groups, excellent coverage units, a similar kicker to the Bills, and one of the more efficient punters in the NFL. The Bills may have lost the field position battle here but when calling upon their punter and kicker they answered the bell every time while a Colts’ missed kick ultimately decided the game. Against the Ravens the Bills would play one of, if not, the greatest kickers of all time in Justin Tucker, a punter that had barely given up any return yards, and solid return and coverage teams. As the game ended the Bills and Ravens’ Punters paced each other, as did the Bills rookie Kicker to Justin Tucker, while Andre Roberts was the only return man able to pick up yards in the return game (34 in total). Were these decisive victories for the Bills against opposing Special Teams? No. But when going against the best and at a minimum finishing neck and neck with them the Bills’ Special Teams have clearly announced themselves as a weapon in the playoffs.
As we roll on in the playoffs I would not be surprised if, though I would advise against, this is the last time we see Andre Roberts in a Buffalo Bills’ uniform. Still, the 2020 2nd Team All-Pro is a weapon for Buffalo and while he still is yet to score a TD for the Bills don’t be surprised if he has a splash play or two left in him. Heck, there is even a chance he could be the deciding factor between the Chiefs and Bills. At Punter is Corey Bojorquez who has had a Renaissance of a season and is undoubtedly in the upper echelon of Punters in the NFL. Last is Bills’ Kicker Tyler Bass who against the Ravens missed his first FG kick(s) since his 61-yard miss against Seattle back in early November. Bass quietly put together a rookie season for the ages and looks to be on the trajectory to emerge as one of the better kickers in the NFL.
For the Chiefs they trot out 2019 Pro Bowl return man Mecole Hardman who is one of the scarier return men in the NFL. In 2020 his stats have dropped off drastically as he has fallen to 7.0 Y/PR (9.3 in 2019) and 20.4 Y/KR (26.1 in 2020). Still Hardman did bring a punt back for a TD this season and has 4.33 40yd speed making him a dangerous return man to contend with on Sunday. This means for the 3rd straight game Bills’ fans can expect Buffalo to bypass their short kick strategy and kick the ball out of the back of the endzone. At Punter is Tommy Townsend the rookie out of Florida who had a solid campaign as a Punter in his first season. Townsend would finish the season with a Punt Avg of 45.0 and a Net Punt Avg of 40.4 right around the middle of the NFL in both categories. At kicker is Harrison Butker who at times is in contention for best kicker in the NFL and at others misses kicks that even Sam Ficken could hit. On the regular season Butker went 25 of 27 on Field Goals with misses from 42 and 48 but just 48 of 54 (88.9%) from XP. In his first playoff game against the Browns Butker would go on to miss 1 of 2 FGs (33yd) and 1 XP. This is without a doubt something to monitor during the AFC Championship.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏
Why We Will Lose
All season long these posts have been filled with a recurring statement, “The Buffalo Bills are the more talented football team”. Sure, I could argue that to be true this week, but I could just as easily argue that the Chiefs are more talented. It all starts on offense where a large amount of the credit is owed to…Andy Reid? Yes, Andy Reid the coach who had turned Donovan McNabb into a household name, Michael Vick into an MVP contender, and Alex Smith into a perennial winner as a starting QB has now been handed the keys to a QB who may just be better than all of them combined. Reid will find the weak points in the Bills’ defense and he will attack them over and over until the Chiefs put up enough points to win the game. Kelce is a mismatch, Hill is a zone breaker, they will run the ball effectively, and Mahomes will make big play after big play.
And then there’s their unheralded defense that has quietly been improving as the season went on and at points was the key to them winning football games. They have the two dynamos in Tyrann Mathieu and Chris Jones who have been described in detail above while the other 9 players on the field with them complement each other well. The Chiefs will send complex blitzes at Allen, stuff the run, blow up the Bills’ receivers and force multiple turnovers turning what should be a close game into a blowout. All those statements are feasible outcomes of this game and if even a portion of them were to occur expect the Chiefs to head to their second straight Super Bowl.
Why We Will Win
This is not the same Bills’ team that the Chiefs played on October 19th. This isn’t the same Bills’ team that people have known for the past quarter century. Instead this is a Bills’ team that has showed an affinity for showing up when the whole world is watching. Led by one of the toughest coaches in the NFL the Bills will arrive in Kansas City prepared and their OC, Brian Daboll, will have a gameplan ready to attack a Chiefs’ defense which does not match up well with the Bills’ offense. Yes, they have a competent secondary but if Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters were unable to shutdown Stefon Diggs who on the Chiefs will be able to? Factor that in with the other weapons the Bills have in the passing game and a Quarterback that will surely exceed what he did the last time these two teams met, and the Bills are on the precipice of a 30+ point outing.
Is this the same defense that the Chiefs saw in the early part of the 2020 season? No. Back then the Bills’ Palms defense was struggling, and they were without the player that makes their defense hum, OLB Matt Milano. Still, the defense came inches away from turning the tide of the game in October when Justin Zimmer tackled CEH for a 4-yard loss and what looked to be a fumble but was later overturned. By mere inches the Chiefs avoided giving the ball to the Bills on the 35-yard line up 6 with 5:23 left to play. But close only counts in horseshoes in hand grenades and on Sunday night this Bills’ defense isn’t looking for close enough, they are looking to dominate. Turnovers are the key for the Bills and if Buffalo can limit them on their side and force 2+ by KC then the Buffalo Bills who are STARVING to get to a Super Bowl will punch their ticket to Tampa Bay.
Prediction: Bills 31 – Chiefs 28
Coming into writing this post I was confident I was going to choose the Chiefs to win this game. They already beat the Bills this season, the game is in Kansas City, and the Chiefs are experienced in the AFC Championship. Then I started looking at the matchups and I noticed that most of the downfalls of their previous game resembled more aberrations than dominations. Don’t get me wrong the Chiefs could easily win this game but something just feels right about picking Buffalo this week. I expect this game to go down as one of those instant classics we talk about years from now and possibly start a new rivalry in the NFL. At the end of the day I think there will be one big play that decides this game. It could be a Honey Badger strip sack, could be a tip drill between Hyde and Poyer, could be a last second scramble by Patty Mahomes, or could be a rocket thrown by Josh Allen hitting Diggs deep. But I’ll take the Bills making that play. So, Mount Up Mafia, it’s almost game time.

WEEK 15

BUFFALO BILLS (10-3) @ DENVER BRONCOS (5-8)
SCORE

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	FINAL
	0	13	0	6
	7	14	17	10

Q1 Scoring:
4:05 - Dawson Knox 9-yard TD rec (,Josh Allen pass) [PAT good]
Q2 Scoring:
10:30 - Josh Allen 24-yard TD rush [PAT good]
6:28 - Melvin Gordon 10-yard TD rush [PAT good]
1:49 - Jake Kumerow 22-yard TD rec (Josh Allen pass) [PAT good]
:05 - Noah Fant 6-yard TD rec (Dres Lock pass) [PAT no good]
Q3 Scoring:
10:58- Josh Allen 1-yard TD rush [PAT good]
10:41 - Jerry Hughes 21-yard TD return [PAT good]
:44 - Bass 27-yard FG
Q4 Scoring:
5:46 - Bass 27-yard FG
1:52 - Melvin Gordon TD rush [PAT no good]
1:40 - Devin Singletary 51-yard TD rush [PAT good]

WEATHEBROADCAST

WEATHEBROADCAST

2:30 MT/3:30 CT/4:30 ET/1:30 ET/9:30 GMT @ Empower Field @ Mile High
Weather: 45f partly cloudy 11 MPH NW

• TV: Adam Amin, Mark Schlereth and Lindsay Czarniak
  
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• Local Radio (KOA - 850 AM/94.1 FM & The Fox - 103.5 FM: Dave Logan, Rick Lewis, Susie Wargin)
  

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INJURY

DEN Injury Report | BUF Injury Report
DEN Inactives | BUF Inactives

AROUND THE AFC WEST

Team		Opp.	Date	Time/Score
KC	@		12/20	2:25
LAC	@	LV	12/17	30 - 24
LV		LAC	12/17	30 - 24

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